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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Sport
Guardian sport

How Australia can qualify for the knockout stage: World Cup 2018 permutations

Socceroos players
Anything but victory over Peru will end the Socceroos’ hopes of remaining in the tournament. Photograph: Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images

Australia v Peru: Fisht Stadium, Sochi.
Tuesday 26 June, kick-off 5pm local, midnight AEST.

Australia head into Tuesday’s game in Sochi hoping to snaffle second place in Group C ahead of Denmark and reach the last 16 of a World Cup for the first time since 2006.

Bert van Marwijk’s side are three points behind Denmark, having lost to France and drawn with the Danes in the opening two games of their campaign.

Australia must beat Peru and hope Denmark lose to France in Moscow. Any other result in either game would eliminate the Socceroos.

In the event of an Australian win and a Danish defeat, the two teams would finish level on four points.

Goal difference would then come into play. Australia are currently minus-one, Denmark plus-one, so the Socceroos would need a swing of three to progress.

A swing of just two (for example, a 1-0 win for Australia and a 1-0 defeat for Denmark) would leave the two teams level.

The next criterion would be the number of goals scored by each. Both teams have scored twice in the tournament so far. So if Denmark were to lose by a margin of one goal but still score more than Australia (for example, a 3-2 defeat for Denmark while the Socceroos won 1-0), the Danes would go through.

If the teams still could not be separated, the next criterion (the result when they played each other) would not help, since they drew 1-1. Then their disciplinary records would be assessed, as per Fifa’s rules:

  • each yellow card: minus one point
  • second yellow leading to a red: minus four points
  • straight red card: minus four points
  • yellow card and straight red card: minus five points

Four Denmark players have been booked so far this tournament, to Australia’s three. Neither side has had a player sent off.

In the unlikely event the teams still could not be separated, lots will be drawn.

The team that finishes second in Group C will play the winner of Group D. Croatia currently top that group, and barring a heavy defeat to Iceland in their final game – coupled with a big win for Nigeria over Argentina – will qualify as group winners.

  • Follow the game with the Guardian’s liveblog, from 11pm AEST
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