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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Daniel Morrow

How accurate is exit poll after General Election 2019 voting ends?

People have been bombarded with poll after poll leading up to the general election. The polling firms have been working overtime but their results have fluctuated wildly in cases and the normal 3% margin of error either way means they can't generally be relied upon.

That would normally mean having to wait until actual vote has been counted in order to get a clear idea of who the winners and losers are  - which for the least patient of us can be a bit of a struggle.

The next best thing is the exit poll , which is released as soon as the polls close at 10pm and provides voters with the first glimpse of how the general election will pan out.

Around 20,000 people leaving polling stations from 144 constituencies are asked how they voted in the General Election. The choice of the constituencies is weighted to be the most representative of the UK as a whole although it excludes Northern Irealnd.

Pre-election pollsters are asking people how they are going to vote and this is fraught with difficulties as they may change their mind or end up not voting at all.

However the exit poll – which is commissioned by the BBC, ITV and Sky News – has the advantage as they are asking people who have already cast their vote and therefore it is far more accurate.

That, though, doesn't mean it is infallible.

The 10pm snapshot will give you a pretty good idea of how the night will unfold as the votes are counted but it isn't an exact representation of reality.

The 2017 exit poll correctly predicted that the Tories would be the largest party but it was a handful of seats out on the final tally and those seats can make all the difference in a tight election.

The 2015 exit poll underestimated the Tory vote and failed to call the eventual Conservative majority.

It also stated that the Lib Dems would only get 10 seats which led Liberal Democrat politician Lord Ashdown to state on TV that: "I can tell you that this is wrong. If these exit polls are right, I'll publicly eat my hat."

It turned out the Lib Dems only got EIGHT seats and poor Paddy was left to eat his hat.

The worst exit poll failure came in 1992 when a hung parliament was predicted but the final vote had John Major’s Tory government hold on to a majority, albeit a reduced one.

At the end of the day, the most accurate tally will be when every vote is counted late on Friday morning.

But for the ones who will be glued to the television after 10pm, the exit poll is usually the difference between an early night and a very late one.

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