Iran is entering one of the most difficult moments in its history. The alliances it had built across the region are falling apart, Western sanctions have returned and its rivals are gaining ground. As Tehran tries to hold on to partners and protect its borders, it is discovering how sharply its power has declined.
While Iran has lived with international isolation for decades, from the 1979 embassy takeover to the long war with Iraq in the 1980s, observers say the pressures it is facing today are of a different order. Old alliances are collapsing and the country is struggling to keep its footing in a rapidly shifting region.
The breaking point came after United States President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. Prior to this, Tehran had spent years trying to open up to the world through president Hassan Rouhani and foreign minister Javad Zarif. Their approach was dependent upon European support. When Washington pulled out of the deal and reimposed sanctions, that strategy collapsed.
"They had lost the battle. They were not able to reverse course, since the Europeans did not stand up to the American decision," explains Bernard Hourcade, an Iran specialist at France's National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).
Radical factions in Tehran, he says, used this moment to push the country back towards confrontation "while knowing that it was a dead end".
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Shifting power balance
Trump’s strategy reshaped Iran’s place in the region. The US pushed the Abraham Accords to bring Arab states closer to Israel – including Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main rival.
Hourcade says Israel saw Iran as "its real potential enemy, a country with 90 million inhabitants, with military experience, with a nuclear programme and so on".
Other analysts say Iran’s neighbours were also cautious. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, told The New York Times that they do not want another regional war, and respect Iran's ability, despite its weakened state, to create instability – including through proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and the Gulf.
Tehran suffered another major blow in 2020 when the US killed Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Soleimani had shaped Iran’s network of militias across the region and spent years trying to repair ties with Riyadh.
However, a radical change occurred in April 2023, when Saudi Arabia and Iran restored relations under Chinese mediation.
Iran then set about securing its territory and sought to maintain relations with all its neighbouring countries. ‘"This agreement is symbolic," says Hourcade. "It marks, in a way, Iran's return to nationalism, to the defence of the Iranian state's borders. And this lasted until 7 October [2023]."
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A network unravelling
The Hamas attacks on Israel have indeed had a significant impact on the regime's position outside its borders. Although Iran officially remained on the sidelines of the war launched in retaliation by Israel in the Gaza Strip on 8 October 2023, it has nevertheless paid a heavy price.
Over the following two years, Israeli strikes weakened the militias that Tehran had relied on for decades.
By late 2024, Hezbollah – Iran’s main ally in Lebanon – had lost many fighters. Iran feared a direct Israeli response and possible US involvement, so it chose not to intervene. It even blocked Hezbollah from using missiles, limiting it to rockets.
Hamas faced similar losses. Before 7 October it had mainly used rocket fire to keep Israel on alert. Many of its leaders were killed over the next two years, and its arsenal fell sharply.
A change of power in neighbouring Syria dealt Tehran another setback. Longtime ruler Bashar al Assad fell on 8 December, 2024. His successor, Ahmed al Sharaa, is backed by Washington and most Western governments.
For Iran, the Damascus government had been a vital logistical link. Even with Assad gone, Hourcade says, Iran maintained contact with Saudi Arabia because it was “the most important thing”, including for exporting oil and gas and supporting its new nationalist strategy.
Only the Houthis in Yemen remain fully intact. Their ballistic arsenal is still considered significant despite heavy strikes. They reached a ceasefire with the US in May 2025.
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Holding on in Iraq
Iraq is now Iran’s strongest foothold in the region. About 20 Shia militias with roughly 235,000 fighters still answer to Tehran – even though the US controls Iraqi airspace.
Iraqi legislative elections on 11 November, 2025 were watched closely in both Tehran and Washington. On 17 November, the pro-Iranian Coordination Framework announced that it had won the most seats and would be well placed to name Iraq's next prime minister.
The result gave Tehran a rare moment of relief. But the collapse of its wider axis of allies has left the Islamic Republic increasingly exposed.
That moment of relief followed a difficult year. Back in April 2024, Tehran had launched missiles and drones at Israel after an attack on its consulate in Damascus. It was the first time Iran had targeted a nuclear-armed country.
After that strike, the government tried to reopen diplomatic channels. Tehran said it wanted sanctions lifted and was ready for indirect nuclear talks in April 2025. These talks were due to resume in Oman on 13 June. Hours before they were set to begin, Israel attacked Iran.
For 12 days Israeli strikes hit nuclear sites and military infrastructure. On the night of 21 to 22 June the US joined the bombardment. More than 1,000 Iranians were killed – including soldiers, scientists and many civilians.
No regional ally offered support.
“Washington does not want a conflict, and it was the United States that stopped the Israeli attack on Iran”, Hourcade explains, adding that Trump believed Iran was still “the only country in the region that is interesting from an economic point of view, the only country between China and Europe”.
German chancellor Friedrich Merz later said: “Israel is doing the dirty work for us... I can only express my greatest respect for the Israeli army and the Israeli government, which had the courage to do this.”
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Pushback from Arab states
Arab states condemned the Israeli strikes, as well as criticising the killings in Gaza.
Saudi Arabia spoke up first, followed by all members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The key point was that “all the countries in the region denounced the Israeli attack against a sovereign country”, Hourcade says.
Many now saw Israel as the dominant political and military force.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are seeking both limits on Israeli influence, as well as a lasting settlement to the conflict in Gaza.
Iran’s ties with China and Russia, meanwhile, remain important but limited. Russia has signed nuclear agreements with Tehran and offers diplomatic backing – yet it has not taken any further steps.
China condemned the Israeli strikes but kept its support mostly economic. A $400 billion agreement signed in 2021 had helped Iran bypass sanctions.
Iran had since joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a powerful political and security grouping, and the BRICS+ economic and diplomatic bloc, strengthening its place in the Global South.
"If China were to make the political decision to assist Iran in upgrading its defence capabilities, it would seek to do so without assuming the political cost of being seen as Tehran’s military backer," the Asia-Pacific publication The Diplomat reported.
It said China would keep defence ties strong enough to profit from Iran’s vulnerability, but measured enough to avoid provoking its rivals.
The limits of outside support have left Iran facing pressure on several fronts.
The International Atomic Energy Agency says it has lost track of 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, close to the level needed for a nuclear weapon. Talks remain frozen and European sanctions have returned.
Iran may now become a political target for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conflict in Gaza is still stalled and most Israelis see Tehran as their main enemy.
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute in June found that 70 percent of Israelis supported the attack on Iran. Support rose to 82 percent among Jewish Israelis.
Among Arab citizens of Israel, 65 percent of people opposed it.
This story has been adapted from the original version in French by Anne Bernas.
