Houston vs Hawaii: New Mexico Bowl prediction and game preview.
Houston vs Hawaii: New Mexico Bowl Broadcast
Date: Thursday, December 24
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Network: ESPN
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Houston (3-4) vs Hawaii (4-4) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The New Mexico Bowl
– It’s just about the most 2020 bowl game possible. It’s the New Mexico Bowl, moved from Albuquerque to Frisco, Texas, involving a Hawaii (4-4) team whose most-likely bowl destination would’ve been the Hawaii Bowl. However, the game was canceled and Aloha Stadium is being all but shut down, meaning the football program has to find a future settled home. This is the program’s second bowl game away from Hawaii since 1992.
– Few schedules were affected by the coronavirus as much as Houston’s with delay after delay to get the season started. Even though QB Clayton Tune has been strong, this isn’t the high-powered attack it’s supposed to be, and the record is hardly impressive, but don’t be fooled. All the losses were to strong teams including BYU and Cincinnati.
– This isn’t your normal Hawaii high-powered passing attack team under first-year head coach Todd Graham, but it can throw well, the running game is solid, and the team played several thrillers over the second half of the season.
Can Hawaii give the Mountain West a second bowl win? There are only four teams in the post-season and Nevada already took down Tulane. Can the American Athletic Conference finally do something right? Tulane’s loss in the Famous Idaho Potato and the UCF blowout to BYU have made it a rough start.
Why Houston, Hawaii Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why Houston Will Win, Why Hawaii Will Win, Houston vs Hawaii Prediction
Why Houston Will Win
– The offense is balanced and it’s versatile. It isn’t quite the devastating thrill ride it was supposed to be – injuries had a lot to do with it – but the play of QB Clayton Tune has been good and the running game has occasionally been amazing.
Start with the running game. Don’t force any throws, don’t turn the ball over, and pound away on a Hawaii run defense that’s allowing 231 yards per game and over 200 against everyone but Fresno State and Boise State.
– The Houston defensive front can get behind the line. The pass rush is terrific with a veteran group that keeps the pressure on, and there are just enough tackles for loss to be okay against the run. There were big problems with the speed of the UCF running game and the power of Cincinnati, but Hawaii’s ground attack doesn’t have the pop of either one. It doesn’t help that …
– Hawaii’s offensive line has a massive problem with anyone with a pass rush. The Rainbow Warrior running game went off on Fresno State to start the season, and it was good against UNLV to end it, but nine of the 15 rushing scores came in those two games and there were just 39 more rushing yards in the middle six games than those two bookends. Get the pass rush going, stop the first down runs, and Houston stops the Hawaii offense.
Why Hawaii Will Win
– Can Hawaii get the passing game going? There really is a running game when QB Chevan Cordeiro gets moving, but the offense is far better when the Rainbow Warriors can throw.
They were able to shock Nevada when Cordeiro hit 81% of his passes, and he connected on 77% of his throws against New Mexico. Hawaii is 4-1 when he completes more than 60% of his passes, and 0-3 when he doesn’t.
– Houston’s pass defense has been solid throughout the year – it has allowed teams to complete just 58% of their throws – however, most of the teams that couldn’t hit the mark struggled with their accuracy all year. BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis were all able to hit the midrange-to-deep passes – Cordeiro has to take his chances and keep throwing. If he gets hot, Houston is in trouble.
– The Rainbow Warrior defense has to force takeaways. Houston doesn’t come up with turnovers, and the offense has given it away multiple times three times in the last four games, losing all three. Hawaii hasn’t lost the turnover battle in the last five games.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Houston vs Hawaii Prediction, New Mexico Bowl History
What’s Going To Happen
This is a plucky Hawaii team that’s going to keep on coming.
It might not have the O line to do much if the Houston pass rush gets going, and it’s not going to be a consistent performance, but there can’t be a letdown by the Cougars. Chevan Cordeiro has a way of getting hot in spurts.
The Houston secondary will be good enough, the running game will be good throughout, and Dana Holgorsen will come up with his first bowl win taking home the 2015 Cactus back when he was at West Virginia.
New Mexico Bowl: Houston vs Hawaii Prediction, Line
Houston 34, Hawaii 20
Bet on Houston vs Hawaii with BetMGM
Houston -11, o/u: 59.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5
Must See Rating: 3
5: New Year’s Day on the couch
1: New Year’s Eve going out
New Mexico Bowl History
Dec. 21, 2019 San Diego State 48, Central Michigan 11
Dec. 15, 2018 Utah State 52, North Texas 13
Dec. 16, 2017 Marshall 31, Colorado State 28
Dec. 19, 2016 New Mexico 23, UTSA 20
Dec. 19, 2015 Arizona 45 New Mexico 37
Dec. 20, 2014 Utah State 21 UTEP 6
Dec. 21, 2013 Colorado State 48 Washington State 45
Dec. 15, 2012 Arizona 49 Nevada 48
Dec. 17, 2011 Temple 37 Wyoming 15
Dec. 18, 2010 BYU 52 UTEP 24
Dec. 19, 2009 Wyoming 35 Fresno State 28 (2 OT)
Dec. 20, 2008 Colorado State 40 Fresno State 35
Dec. 22, 2007 New Mexico 23 Nevada 0
Dec. 23, 2006 San Jose State 20 New Mexico 12
