There is plenty riding on our Houston Open 2026 betting tips, as this expert column is currently chasing a hat-trick of winning bets.
Bazza's best bets for the Valspar Championship successfully flagged Fitzpatrick as the winner at the Copperhead Course, thanks to tipster Jonny Leighfield's all-knowing wisdom, adding to Bazza's +4000 winner at The Players Championship the week before (courtesy of Cam Young).
This week we head to Memorial Park, a tough track that requires a very specific skillset to succeed. Past champion Scottie Scheffler ramps up his Masters prep at the Houston Open, leading a strong field of contenders and highlighting the level of quality needed to lift this trophy.
Searching for a player with a strong short game and consistently accurate approach play, Baz has drawn up a long list of contenders then whittled it down to three that he likes the look of in the betting markets at the Houston Open...
Houston Open Betting Tips 2026 - Bazza's Best Bets
The Long List
Here we are looking for players that rank well in four key stats - Strokes Gained: Approach, approach from outside 200 yards, Strokes Gained: Around The Green and Bogey Avoidance.
These stats correlate nicely with previous winners and create a model profle of a player that can cope with the challenges of Memorial Park.
In terms of course correlation, I am interested in performances at the Riviera Country Club, Quail Hollow, Yas Links, The Renaissance Club, Trinity Forest, Le Golf National and, to an extent, Augusta National.
The links between these clubs may not appear obvious, but essentially they all either require elite short game on tightly cut grass around greens with run offs and heavy undulation or solid approach play that requires you to hit specific quadrants of greens to set up scoring opportunities (or both).
The long list for the Houston Open 2026, based on their season statistics and performances on correlating courses, is therefore:
- Chris Gotterup
- Jake Knapp
- Sahith Theegala
- Adam Scott
- Ryan Fox
- Nicolai Hojgaard
- Patrick Rodgers
Bazza's Best Bets
Top Tip: Chris Gotterup To Win (+2200) @ BetMGM
If we are going to oppose the clear favourite, Scottie Scheffler, I am taking the man who has already lit up the PGA Tour this season with two quick-fire wins - Chris Gotterup.
Gotterup has won the Scottish Open and the WM Phoenix Open on correlating courses in his career, but it's his strong play on approach and around the green that really got me over the line on this tip.
The American ranks 6th for SG: Approach and 19th for SG: Around The Green in this field, gaining strokes throughout the bag and showing very few weaknesses.
He hits a long ball off the tee, which will help on this tough track, so I fancy him to make it three before The Masters.
Next Best: Jake Knapp To Win (+2700) @ BetMGM
Jake Knapp has looked like winning almost every week this season, finishing in the top-8 four times as well as banking a T11 at the season opener in Hawaii.
He did miss the cut at The Players Championship, which I can forgive considering the volatility of TPC Sawgrass, but he fits the statistical bill nicely.
He is the best putter in this field over the past three months, ranks 8th for driving distance and has gained strokes on approach and around the green in 2026.
With strong form on correlating courses and a solid start to the year under his belt, I can see him going close this week.
The Value Bet: Ryan Fox To Win (+8000) @ BetMGM
Ryan Fox is an interesting option this week, coming in at a big price with plenty of value but also measuring well against the profile.
Fox has won twice on the PGA Tour already and has banked four consecutive top-24 finishes in 2026.
His best was a T7 at the Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago, on a course that correlates well with success here, so that angle looks promising. Fox has form at Quail Hollow and the Renaissance Club, but his stats also put a big tick in the box.
Fox ranks 4th for proximity from 200 yards+, 24th for bogey avoidance , 17th for SG: Around The Green and 12th for driving distance in 2026 - so keep an eye on a decent charge.
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Pick One: Jake Knapp To Win (+2700) @ BetMGM
I've picked Knapp twice in recent weeks (with good reason) but he's withdrawn before the tournament even started and then missed the cut at The Players.
I'm willing to overlook those two anomalies as his season has largely been outstanding otherwise and his profile perfectly fits this tournament in terms of what you need to win.
A monster driver who is also dynamite on the greens, Knapp finished T27th here last year thanks to some modest stats all around. He ranks highly for SG: Off The Tee and SG: Putting, so as long as he makes the cut, I feel like he should contend.
Pick Two: Nicolai Hojgaard To Win (+4000) @ BetMGM
For similar reasons, I like Nicolai Hojgaard this week. Although he missed the cut after a poor performance last year, I'm backing the Dane to come back strongly in 2026.
He's managed three top-10s this term (one of which I backed him on) and most of his stats suggest his all-round game is in a great place.
Another huge driver who is an excellent putter - highlighted by 1.51 strokes gained on the greens at The Players - Hojgaard should stand an excellent chance of being involved down the stretch on Sunday.
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic 2025 |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic 2025 |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Patrick Reed |
Dubai Desert Classic 2026 |
+4000 |
Elliott Heath |
Cameron Young |
Players Championship 2026 |
+3500 |
Baz Plummer |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open 2025 |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational 2025 |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship 2025 |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
Valspar Championship 2026 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK 2025 |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025 |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia 2025 |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship 2025 |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open 2025 |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
