ANALYSIS — Democrats need to break some streaks to win the Senate next year, but Republicans also need to break a streak of their own to hold on to the House. And even though there’s still about 17 months to go before Election Day, history is working against the GOP.
The party of the president has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, a trend that goes back nearly 90 years. And in many of those midterms, it wasn’t even close, with an average loss of 32 seats in those 20 elections. House Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win a majority in 2026.
The fewest number of net House seats that the president’s party has lost over those 20 midterms was five in 1986 (during President Ronald Reagan’s second midterm) and four seats in 1962 (President John F. Kennedy’s only midterm). House Republicans will need to buck history to keep control of the chamber.
The two instances when the president’s party didn’t lose House seats in a midterm election aren’t particularly encouraging for Republicans.
In 2002, Republicans benefited from a “rally ’round the flag” effect. President George W. Bush’s job approval rating skyrocketed to 89 percent in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, according to Gallup, landing at 63 percent before Election Day. House Republicans picked up a net of eight seats. In comparison, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating was at 44 percent in the most recent Gallup survey (from April) and has never been higher than 49 percent across either term.
Typically, midterm elections are a referendum on the president. If voters don’t like the job the president is doing, they can’t vote against him because he’s not on the ballot. So they either punish candidates from his party or seek candidates from the party out of the White House to serve as a check and balance on the president.
The only other exception to the trend of midterm losses was 1998, when House Democrats gained a net of five seats during President Bill Clinton’s second midterm election. That was a reaction to the Republican majority overreaching in prosecuting their case against Clinton’s behavior with Monica Lewinsky.
Republicans today could say that Democrats are overreaching in their efforts to dethrone Trump. But Democrats are in the minority, so their efforts to try to hold the president accountable can’t really get very far, both legislatively and publicly. And ultimately, Republicans on Capitol Hill (along with Trump) are more likely to be held responsible for voter discontent about the economy or direction of the country because the GOP is the party in power.
Now it’s technically possible for the midterm trend to remain intact and for Republicans to hold the House majority. After all, the GOP can afford to lose two seats and still remain in control. Just last cycle, House Democrats picked up a net of one seat (two seats, if you include a special election won earlier in 2024).
But a net result of two or fewer House seats is rare. It’s happened in at least five of the past 40 elections (midterm and presidential) going back to 1946, including 2000 (two seats), 1988 (two seats), 1976 (one seat) and 1956 (two seats).
The good news for Republicans is that the fight for the House looks like a district-by-district struggle on an evenly divided battlefield that includes 34 vulnerable seats held by Democrats and 30 vulnerable seats currently held by GOP lawmakers. Republicans are defending a disproportionately larger share of races that Inside Elections currently rates as Toss-ups (seven seats to three held by Democrats).
But cycles have a way of evolving, and battlegrounds can shift in size and makeup, particularly in midterm elections.
For example, in February 2009, the initial House battleground consisted of 33 seats, including 10 held by Republicans and 23 held by Democrats. By the end of the 2010 cycle, the battleground had ballooned to 109 competitive seats, 100 of them held by Democrats. Republicans went on to gain a net of 63 seats that cycle in response to President Barack Obama’s first years in office and perceived Democratic overreach with the Affordable Care Act.
In February 2017, at the beginning of Trump’s first midterm election cycle, the House battlefield consisted of 43 seats: 28 held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats. But by the end of the 2018 cycle, the number of competitive seats had doubled to 89 seats. Republicans were dramatically on the defensive, with 81 vulnerable seats compared with Democrats’ eight, and Democrats gained a net of 41 seats that cycle to flip the chamber.
In more ways than one, Democrats are hoping history repeats itself.
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