WASHINGTON _ It's dangerous to extrapolate too much from any single special election, but the trend is clear across nearly all of the special elections over the past year: Democrats are over-performing and Republicans are struggling to hold open seats.
Democrats' over-performance hasn't been limited by geography, considering their candidates have done better than expected in Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, even if they've fallen short in all but one of those races.
Based on that trend, here are our rating changes:
Michigan's 11th District
GOP Rep. Dave Trott isn't running for re-election, leaving an open seat that President Donald Trump carried with less than 50 percent. Both parties have competitive primaries on Aug. 7 but, once again, this is the type of district Republicans will likely struggle to hold in this environment. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.
New Jersey's 2nd District
Trump carried this South Jersey seat narrowly with 51 percent, but Democrats have a credible challenger in state Sen. Jeff Van Drew. He already represents some of the most Republican territory in the congressional district and has the early advantage in campaign cash. Van Drew had $456,000 in the bank on March 31 while none of the Republicans had more than $83,000. That fundraising discrepancy is part of the recipe for Democratic success. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
New Jersey's 11th District
President Donald Trump also carried this seat narrowly with just 49 percent, but that might not be Republicans' greatest challenge. The likely Democratic nominee is retired Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill, who had nearly $1.7 million in campaign funds at the end of March. She was already on pace to give GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen the re-election race of his life, before he announced his retirement. Republican state Assemblyman Jay Webber had $221,000 in the bank, about the same amount as two lower-tier Democrats. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
North Carolina's 9th District
This seat is now open after Rev. Mark Harris ousted Rep. Robert Pittenger in the Republican primary. Even though Trump won the district with 54 percent in 2016, the seat is at greater risk now, considering Harris had just $71,000 in his campaign account on April 18. Democrat Dan McCready unsurprisingly won his primary, and he enters the general election with $1.2 million in the bank. Democrats were already psyched about McCready given his profile as a Marine veteran and founder of a solar energy investment company. At a minimum, it looks like the National Republican Congressional Committee is now going to have to spend money defending this seat and bailing out Harris. Move from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican.
Ohio's 12th District
Trump carried this north-central seat by more than 10 points, but after watching Republicans lose a district the President won by 19 points (Pennsylvania's 18th) and struggle to win another that he won by more than 20 points (Arizona's 8th), that's enough evidence to move the Aug. 7 special election race in a district that is more competitive. GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned in order to take a job with Ohio Business Roundtable. Democratic Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor will face GOP state Sen. Troy Balderson in the special and general elections. Move from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican.
Republicans are also at considerable risk of losing California's 39th and 49th Districts, which are open because of retirements. But because California has a top-two primary system, we're going to wait until after the June 5 to make sure Democrats get a candidate to the general election before re-evaluating the races.
