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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Business
Sam Barker

House prices to fall by 9% as mortgage rates rise and stamp duty cut ends, experts warn

House prices are expected to fall by 9% over the next couple of years, experts warn.

This will be because of high mortgage rates making homes more unaffordable and the UK slipping into recession.

The latest gloomy prediction about the future of property prices comes from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The OBR was set up by the Government to give economic forecasts and analyse public spending.

House prices are forecast to drop by 9% between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024.

Average interest rates on current mortgages are expected to peak at 5% in the second half of 2024, the highest level since 2008, the OBR said.

House prices will start falling this year, the OBR said (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Due to large numbers of home owners sitting on fixed-rate mortgages, higher interest rates on new deals take a while to feed through to the stock of existing home loans.

However, the OBR said its forecast was uncertain due to how sensitive house prices are to mortgage rates and how unpredictable homeloan prices are.

The house price prediction was released as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the stamp duty cuts previously announced in the Mini-Budget will remain in place - but only until March 31 2025.

Stamp duty is a tax you pay when buying a property, with how much you pay depending on the property price and if you're a first-time buyer.

The Chancellor unveiled big changes to the homebuying tax in his Autumn Budget today.

Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng cut stamp duty in his disastrous Mini-Budget in September.

The normal system in England and Northern Ireland is to pay stamp duty on properties worth over £125,000 if this is your main residence - or £300,000 if you're a first-time buyer.

The £125,000 limit was then doubled to £250,000 by Mr Kwarteng.

He also increased the limit at which the tax was paid by first-time buyers to £425,000 on house worth up to £625,000.

Today, Mr Hunt said the stamp duty system would go back to normal on March 31, 2025.

Mr Hunt said: "After that I will sunset the measure, creating an incentive to support the housing market and all the jobs associated with it by boosting transactions during the period the economy most needs it."

Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson said Mr Hunt is abolishing "about the only good policy" from Kwasi Kwarteng's Autumn Mini-Budget by removing the stamp duty cut in 2025.

Mr Hunt also said people in social housing in England will be supported with the cost of living by limiting the increase in their rents.

Under current rules, rents could have risen by up to 11.1% - but now they will only be able to rise by a maximum of 7% in 2023-24.

This will save the average tenant in the social rented sector £200 next year, the Government said.

To support mortgage borrowers with rising interest rates during periods of low income, from spring 2023 the Government also said it will allow those on Universal Credit to apply for a loan to help with interest repayments after three months instead of nine.

Lucian Cook, head of Savills residential research, said: "Time-limiting the previous change to stamp duty thresholds will offset some of the pressures on housing transactions over the short term, particularly as the deadline for change approaches in March 2025.

"But while we should never underestimate the ability of stamp duty measures to distort the market, this time around the higher costs of debt will undoubtedly constrain that effect."

Other experts say house prices are set to drop by 10-15% over the next two years.

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