House Democrats’ largest super PAC sent a message to donors on Friday, 18 days before the midterm election: We are still in the fight — if you open your wallets.
To back up the claim, House Majority PAC included in its memo toplines from October polling showing Democratic candidates ahead of GOP opponents — but by 5 percentage points or less — in nine open or GOP-held battleground districts. Another pair of surveys of an open district south of Raleigh, North Carolina's capital, showed Democratic nominee Wiley Nickel locked in a tight race with Republican Bo Hines, with the two candidates tied in one poll and Nickel trailing in another by 2 points.
“These races are a critical part of our path to holding the Majority, but we can only win if we have the resources we need in the final sprint to Election Day,” the group wrote in the memo.
It’s a plea to shrink the widening fundraising gap between GOP super PACs and their Democratic counterparts, which has shifted the House battleground significantly in recent weeks. Democratic have begun warning that they do not have the resources to contest every winnable race and that an onslaught of Republican spending has forced them to retrench in seats that might be otherwise safe.
Newly filed campaign finance reports Thursday night painted the clearest portrait yet of Republicans’ big-money financial advantage. House Majority PAC ended September with $82 million in the bank after spending $48 million so far in the election. In comparison, the chief GOP super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has spent $102 million in the same time period and ended September with $114 million in the bank.
Despite the disparity, strategists at House Majority PAC, which has close ties to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, believe Democrats could maintain their razor-thin edge in the House. The Friday memo is titled, “Through Open Seat and Challenger Races, Democrats Maintain A Clear Path To Holding The House Majority.” And the group touted superior candidates and “a better message than the GOP extremists who care more about passing a national abortion ban than lowering costs for American families.”
The memo is notable because House Majority PAC has rarely released private surveys this election cycle. Its polls found Democrats in competitive positions in the seats left open by retiring Reps. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) and John Katko (R-N.Y.), as well as in newly created districts in northeast Ohio, California’s Central Valley and northwestern Oregon.
The group also touted polls against Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) and Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) — Republican incumbents who all hold seats in districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020.
No Democratic candidates were above 50 percent in any of the polls, which were conducted between Oct. 5 and Oct. 18 by Public Policy Polling, Change Research, GQR Research and GBAO Strategies. Democrat Eric Sorenson, who is vying for Bustos’ open seat, had one of the largest leads: He was up 5 points over Republican Esther Joy King. Democrat Greg Landsman also had a 5-point lead over Chabot.
As House Majority PAC pushes its donors for last-minute cash, it has already begun to slash some planned advertising campaigns due to lack of funds, notably in Los Angeles and Tucson, Ariz.
On the campaign committee side, the House Democratic campaign arm trailed its GOP counterpart in cash on hand, $92 million to $59 million. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $70 million more as of the end of September, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
