Hospital leaders have said Covid cases in Indian variant hotspots are still not increasing steeply.
Hospitalisations are “ticking up” in areas suffering outbreaks but nowhere near levels seen in January and February amid hopes they could peak as soon as next week.
NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said data over the next week will be key but raised hopes that vaccine protection is keeping the roadmap out of lockdown on track for June 21.
Chief executive Chris Hopson told Times Radio: “Talking to a group of chief executives over the last few days in the areas that are most affected by the variant that originated in India, what we’re hearing is that hospitalisations are increasing but they’re not increasing precipitously.”
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Hospital bosses report that around 15% of beds are occupied by Covid patients in Indian variant hotspots.
This was at more than half at many hospitals during the winter surge that nearly overwhelmed the NHS.
Patients coming in are also younger - with many under 45 - less likely to need intensive care with more being treated on general wards.
The risk of exceeding NHS intensive care capacity was the main justification for lockdowns.
Patients are generally unvaccinated, either too young to receive one or having turned down jabs.
Mr Hopson tweeted: “Early signs that the rate of community infections is beginning to peak in some places.
“Example of increases / estimates of hospitalisations from one hospital: 20 last week, 40 this week, predicted 60 next week and this hopefully being peak, assuming infection peak reached.”
He added: “CEOs struck how, as expected, hospitalisations are very much focused on unvaccinated – either eligible unvaccinated or younger people not yet vaccinated.
“Very small numbers of two dose vaccinated patients and hospitalisations in this category have clear co-morbidities.”
