An interim US-Iran deal to end their months-long war and potentially fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz is likely to trigger a rush of grain imports to nations in the Persian Gulf after months of reliance on longer, less efficient routes.
A vital conduit for global commodity trade, Hormuz has been effectively closed since the first strikes on Iran at the end of February. The closure has reshaped regional grain flows, forcing importers to use ports outside the strait that are often not equipped to handle grain cargoes.
The Gulf is among the world’s most import-dependent food markets, relying on overseas supplies for roughly 90% of its food consumption. Iran alone ranks among the world’s largest buyers of soybean meal and is also a major importer of Brazilian corn. Many of the region’s main grain import hubs — such as Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, Dammam in Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Bandar Imam Khomeini — lie behind the strait.
“For grains, you need the specialist equipment to handle it, like silos. They will eventually have to go back to those ports in the Middle East Gulf,” said Alexis Ellender, lead dry bulk analyst at Kpler. There are a few vessels moving in and out of the Gulf, “but you’re looking at maybe three dry bulk carriers a day on average. Normally, it would be above 20.”
