So much for the idea that the post-Brexit-vote hit to UK manufacturing was a kneejerk reaction to the referendum and that the mood would improve as time wore on.
The final figures for how industry fared in July are in and they were even worse than the flash estimate released 10 days ago. Some analysts had expressed guarded confidence that Theresa May’s arrival in Downing Street might have made companies less gloomy.
The snapshot of the manufacturing sector from Markit/Cips showed that exports have been given a modest boost by the decline in the value of the pound, but this is not the greatest moment to be trying to break into new markets overseas.
Some comfort could be taken from the fact that the drop in output and orders after Brexit was not nearly as marked as those during the recession at the end of the 2000s. But not much. The slump in the economy between early 2008 and late 2009 was the most severe suffered by the UK in the entire postwar period.
One lesson from that recession is the need for early action to prevent pessimism from becoming ingrained. In the summer of 2008, when UK output had already started to contract, the Bank was considering raising interest rates to combat a temporary spike in inflation.
Threadneedle Street is not going to make the same mistake again. Inflationary pressure will certainly increase in the coming months, because a fall in the value of the pound makes imports more expensive.
This, though, is a second-order problem, put into the shade by the need to forestall job cuts and the scrapping of investment. The chances of an eyecatching package have improved.
