The outlook for the global business jet aviation market over the next decade looks a little less promising mainly because of uncertain economic and political environment.
Some 8,300 new business jet deliveries worth US$249 billion (8.32 trillion baht) are expected for the next decade, down 2-3 percentage points from last year's projection.
Honeywell, the software industrial firm offering aerospace solutions, released the latest forecast.
"Declining used aircraft prices, continued low commodity prices, and economic and political uncertainties in many business jet markets remain near-term concerns for new jet purchases, leading to modest growth in 2018," said Ben Driggs, president of Honeywell Aerospace.
"That said, there are several new and exciting aircraft models coming to market, which will drive solid growth in new business jet purchases in the mid-term and long term."
Key global findings in the Honeywell 2017 global business aviation outlook, which was based on analysis interviews with over 1,500 business jet operators worldwide, include:
Deliveries of 620-640 new jets in 2017, a decline of roughly 30 aircraft year-on-year. This pullback comes on the heels of a moderate decrease in 2016 and is largely due to slower order rates for mature aeroplane models and a transition to new models slated for late 2017 and 2018.
Operators plan to make new jet purchases of about 19% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared with the 2016 survey results.
Of the total purchase plans for new business jets, 19% are intended to occur by the end of 2018, while 17% and 14% are scheduled for 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, which are expected to account for over 85% of all expenditures on new business jets in the next five years.
The longer-range forecast through 2027 projects a 3-4% average annual growth rate despite the lower short-term outlook as new models and projected improved economic performance will contribute to industry growth.
Declines in five-year operator purchase plans are offset in the long-term forecast by new programmes entering service, improved economic performance and higher commodity prices, resulting in only a small decline in the overall outlook.
Brazil, Russia, India, China: Significant decline in Chinese and Russian purchase plans compared with last year drive lower BRIC results.
Asia-Pacific: Impacted by regional tensions, purchase plans are down significantly from last year and back to 2014 and 2015 levels.
Middle East and Africa: Slightly lower purchase plans were reported, impacted by political tensions and ongoing conflict in the region in tandem with a stalled recovery in oil prices.
Latin America: Only regions with higher purchase plans in 2017 compared with last year.
North America: New aircraft acquisition plans are lower in this year's survey than last year's. An estimated 61% of projected global demand comes from North American operators over the next five years.
