LAS VEGAS — Chicago baseball fans can feel a sliver of solace knowing that the Bay Area has been more offensive on its home diamonds than the Cubs and White Sox.
Those who bet blindly on the Giants in San Francisco, up to the All-Star break, lost 4.56 units, according to ats.io/mlb. But the pathetic Athletics dropped an MLB-worst 18.84 units at RingCentral Coliseum.
That combined home hit to the wallet edged the 21.25 total units lost between the Cubs (17-29 at home, -10.95 units) and Sox (19-25, -10.30). At -17.81 units, the Nationals also sullied their stadium.
Chicago owning two of those four double-digit culprits is shameful.
If he were a local, PlayUp USA’s Vegas-based wagering chief Rex Beyers would never visit Wrigley Field or Guaranteed Rate Field without having a “decent sweat” — a significant side or total wager — on the outcome.
“I sure wouldn’t go for entertainment purposes,” he says.
The Ohio native has prospered fading, or betting against, both teams.
He charges Cubs players, who last weekend let a lazy pop-up drop between first base and right field, with “borderline quitting.” Had they not won it all in 2016, he would’ve bet a bundle that they wouldn’t claim a crown in his lifetime.
“Enjoy that one, I guess I’m saying,’’ Beyers, 45, says.
The Sox had a 46-46 record and minus-14 run differential. FanGraphs projected the Twins (50-44, plus-28 differential) to win the American League Central.
“[The White Sox] won’t be able to overcome this manager,” Beyers says of Tony La Russa. “And consistently boneheaded or head-scratching plays [will relegate them to] the outside once meaningful October baseball starts.”
No MLB team delivered more first-half profit, of 15 units, than the Orioles. The Yankees (8.1 units) have delivered in the Bronx, as have the Rockies (6.8 units) in Denver.
We try to make first-half sense to secure second-half value.
BOOK ’EM
Don Wallace, a loyal Houston reader, reminded me of some nuggets I had dispensed in my 2019 book, “Sports Betting for Winners.”
He had been tracking how Chicago native Dennis Rhinevault, alias Van Smith in the tome, has operated for decades. Dozens of magnificent notebooks record Rhinevault’s lifelong quest to win at sports betting.
The night of Friday, July 15, Wallace aimed to bet heavy on the Astros and starting pitcher Justin Verlander on July 16, telling me, “I do not care what the price is!”
That action, a la Rhinevault, involved wagering on a top-10 team, according to ESPN’s power rankings, against a bottom-six squad after losing to that bottom-feeder. On July 15, the Astros had lost to the lowly Athletics.
Houston, a -360 favorite (risk $360 to win $100) that Saturday, won 5-0.
Wallace also repeated what legendary TV broadcaster Brent Musburger told me for the book.
“I’m a streak bettor,” Musburger said. “Win three in a row, I’ll bet you the next day. You take your profit out as you go along when you do that, but streaks are the way to go in baseball.”
That Friday, Wallace was eager to keep backing Seattle, too. After winning three, it had just defeated Texas for a ninth consecutive victory. As -143 favorites, the Mariners won on July 16 and again, as -131 favorites, on July 17.
The Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Astros, Mariners, Braves, Marlins and Dodgers — the elites at sustaining success — are a combined 117-42 (73.6%) after three triumphs in a row, which includes the streak-stopping defeat.
Remember, remove profit out as you go along.
SCRAMBLING
Doug “The Sheriff” Fitz, the Cleveland native and retired cop who has delved into systems handicapping in his Vegas retirement, has scuffled trying to gain baseball traction.
Chicago native and Florida professional bettor John Murges was ahead a few hundred bucks, barely qualifying as a push.
“Been berry, berry difficult,” he says, mimicking Chico Escuela, comedian Garrett Morris’ character from the popular 1970s “Saturday Night Live” skit who always trumpeted, “Baseball been berry, berry good to me.”
But Brooklyn-born Vegas handicapper Noah Parker, a four-figure bettor, reports having success with certain road teams, especially in extra innings.
Extra innings begin with a runner on second. After nine innings, he’ll often live-wager the visiting team. In the first half’s final week, road teams were 9-4 in extra innings.
Says Parker, “I’ve adapted and adjusted.”
KEY NUMBERS
The Angels were 24-13 on May 15, then spiraled, going 15-40. During that swoon when Shohei Ohtani didn’t pitch, his team was 9-37.
And 23 of those defeats were by at least two runs, cashing opponent tickets on the lucrative -1½ run line.
Foes in their own yards were 14-8, on the run line, against the Angels. For comparison, the Astros were -220 at home against the Angels on July 3, but Houston’s run line was -110. Houston won 4-2.
When Ohtani doesn’t start, fade those poor Angels.
ODDS ’N’ ENDS
In totals wagers, Mets and Astros away games are a combined 57-37 to under, a profit margin of 11-plus units. Circle the Mets in Washington on Aug. 1-3 and the Astros in a three-game series in Oakland starting Monday.
Finally, Baltimore, of course, accumulated that impressive profit with many underdog triumphs.
Long Island ’capper Tom Barton banked much of those dividends and says Baltimore isn’t going away: “They have a stacked farm system, so the Orioles will be pretty good for a while.”
