A trend unseen since the aftermath of the financial crisis is unfolding, as U.S. home prices declined for a third consecutive month in June 2025, quietly signaling that cracks may be forming in the housing market.
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According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the national Home Price Index declined 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% decrease in May and a 0.3% drop in April.
While individually minor, the streak marks the first three-month slide in home prices since December 2010—a period defined by weak recovery following the Great Recession.
The June reading missed expectations for flat growth, adding to growing concerns over market momentum. On an annual basis, home prices were up 2.6%—the slowest year-over-year rise since early 2012.
All nine U.S. census divisions reported year-over-year increases, although the pace varied significantly. The Middle Atlantic division—covering New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania—led with a 6.7% increase. The Pacific division, which includes California and Washington, saw the weakest performance at just 0.9%.
Why Are Home Prices Slipping?
Affordability is the key pressure point. Home prices may be softening, but mortgage rates remain historically elevated, pushing many buyers to the sidelines. Inventory levels have also begun to rise, leading to increased seller competition.
“Home price appreciation in the U.S. has flatlined as affordability remains near record lows, inventory levels continue to build, and sellers outnumber buyers,” said Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, in a post on social media X.
Bilello added that the pricing power sellers held during the 2020-2022 boom is fading.
“The first half of the 2020s, with annualized home price appreciation of 4.6% above inflation, is unlikely to be repeated in the back half,” he said, noting there’s “no rational justification for prices to continue to outpace inflation by such a wide margin.”
“Only 24% of all US home sales in 2024 went to first-time home buyers, the lowest share in history,” he added.
Market Reactions
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund dropped 0.3% Tuesday, adding to a 0.5% loss the day before.
Among the worst performers, Crown Castle Inc. (NYSE:CCI), American Tower Corp. (NYSE:AMT) and SBA Communications Corp. each slipped by about 2.5%.
The only major gainer was Digital Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE:DLR), which rose 1.8%—a sign that demand for data infrastructure remains resilient even as the broader property sector weakens.
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