WASHINGTON �� A standoff in Congress over funding U.S. operations has political strategists in both parties wondering: What if they had a government shutdown and no one noticed?
As both sides rush to blame the other for not keeping the lights on, it's not clear anyone will really bear the blame, because for most of the public, it will be hard to notice the difference.
Airport screeners will stay on the job, postal workers will deliver packages and veterans will receive medical care. Mandatory spending programs such as Medicare will continue, and Social Security beneficiaries will get checks.
At the same time, it will be days before most affected federal employees would otherwise report for work. Monday and Tuesday are federal holidays.
Those circumstances give Trump and his supporters on Capitol Hill some breathing room before voters start to feel the effects of the shutdown, which began at midnight Friday. But if they don't strike a deal soon, the start to 2019 promises to be bumpy.
Democrats will take over the House majority when the next Congress convenes Jan. 3. And Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in line to become House speaker, has given no signs she'd entertain a spending bill that includes the $5 billion Trump wants for a wall on the border with Mexico.
Roughly 75 percent of government agencies �� including some of the most public-facing, such as the Defense and Health and Human Services departments �� won't feel the shutdown because they are funded through September 2019.
Even some of the agencies nominally shut down are staffed mostly with "essential" employees who are expected to continue to work. That includes the Justice and Homeland Security departments.
While most Americans may not notice any immediate changes, the shutdown will have a significant impact on hundreds of thousands of federal workers.
That includes more than 50,000 Transportation Security agency personnel manning screening centers at airports, who will be at work but won't get paid until the shutdown is resolved. Customs and Border Protection agents, federal correctional agents, and U.S. Forest Service firefighters are also among those who will report to work without knowing when they will be paid.
But the broader effects might not be apparent for weeks or months, particularly if the shutdown doesn't last.
Small businesses seeking access to federally assisted loans or Americans seeking mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration are likely to encounter delays, though December is usually one of the slowest months for the housing market. State and local police departments are less likely to schedule federally funded training programs during a holiday season when they're typically stretched thin.
Trump's political calculus could also be based on the fact that voters have shown little inclination to punish lawmakers widely seen as responsible for previous shutdowns.
After two government shutdowns forced by congressional Republicans during the mid-1990s, the party retained control of both houses. Republicans won the Senate from Democrats after the 2014 government shutdown, and Democrats retook the House in November, despite being largely blamed for a funding lapse earlier that year.
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(Toluse Olorunnipa contributed to this report.)
