Detroit Lions first-round pick T.J. Hockenson has landed on Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) offensive rookie of the year list, checking in at No. 7 and the first of only two tight ends in the race.
“There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Lions offense at the moment,” PFF’s Mike Renner wrote, “but Hockenson is easily the most NFL-ready tight end of the class. Hockenson dropped all of two passes his entire college career and broke eight tackles on 49 catches in 2018.”
It’s not just PFF that is expecting big things from Hockenson. Vegas is too, as Hockenson recently checked in at sixth on the BetOnline oddsmaker’s board for Rookie of the Year watch list.
Hockenson landing on these lists shouldn’t surprise, as those expectations come with being a top-10 pick and the first offensive skill player selected. But Lions fans should keep their expectations realistic.
Hockenson has three major factors working against him. First will be his role in Detroit, which will likely include a significant role blocking in Detroit’s run game limiting statistical opportunities. Secondly, as Renner pointed out, “the additional mouths to feed” on the roster should lower his targets further. Lastly, rookie tight ends typically struggle to adjust to in the NFL, and when you add all of these obstacles together, you get a situation that does not typically translate into offseason honors.
Realistically, if Hockenson finishes the 2019 season with 45 targets, 450-yards and five touchdowns, it should be considered a successful rookie season, but those numbers likely won’t win him any post-season awards.
The bottom line is at the end of the 2019 season, Hockenson’s impact in Detroit’s offense may prove he’s the best offensive rookie in the class. But with an NFL awards system that is based on statistics, he may not take home any hardware.
