On the corner of an ordinary street of terraced houses in the Rhondda valley, south Wales, Adam Price was to be found contemplating the possibility of quite extraordinary change.
“History speeds up at certain junctures,” said Price, the leader of the nationalist party Plaid Cymru. “I think we are at one of those seminal moments when the collective mood shifts. You can see the spark of change happening. I think this election will come to be seen as a crossroads moment.”
The prospect of Wales becoming an independent country used to be very much a side-issue in Welsh elections with health, education and the economy dominating the doorstep debate.
This time, the idea of breaking away from the union has been a key topic of the campaign.
It is partly a side-effect of the Covid crisis, with the pandemic making Welsh citizens much more aware of the powers held by the devolved government and the Labour first minister, Mark Drakeford.
Price said Drakeford and the leaders of the other devolved nations had done better than Boris Johnson. “We’ve seen capriciousness, recklessness, incompetence and dishonesty from Westminster,” he said. “The devolved governments have been serious, driven by the evidence.”
This, he argues, has led many voters to conclude that Wales would be better off if it completely cut political ties with London. “The more the Welsh government has succeeded in contrast to the UK government, the more it has driven the support for independence.”
Price said there were times during the pandemic that Wales lost out because of England’s control and muscle.
One example that has reared its head during the campaign is the lingering suspicion that the UK government “gazumped” Wales over a deal for Covid testing kits as the virus first swept across the UK.
“That sort of thing changes the collective mind of a nation,” said Price. “Healthcare and care workers were putting their lives at risk on the frontline but Westminster chose not to prioritise our people’s needs. That will not be forgotten.”
Plaid finished second at the 2016 election with 12 of the 60 seats, well behind the 29 that Labour took.
Labour is likely to end up being the biggest party again this time but an overall majority is probably beyond it and if it drops below 29, it will almost certainly need to forge an alliance or coalition to carry on in government.
Plaid would be an obvious choice but having put independence at the heart of its manifesto, it is bound to try to put a referendum – or movement towards one – as a condition of its co-operation. While accepting that changes to the constitution of the UK are needed, Drakeford is an avowed unionist. There will be some tough talking to do.
As political leaders always do at this stage of an election campaign Price said Plaid was fighting to become the biggest party and lead the government.
But would he be happy with the position of deputy or joint first minister in a Labour/Plaid government? “We wouldn’t countenance being a junior partner,” he said. “That does not deliver the change we need.”
Before polling day, Price will continue to work hard in places such as the south Wales valleys trying to pinch votes from traditional Labour supporters.
He is the son of a miner from a Labour-supporting family. “I understand that people have voted Labour for generations but you get the clear sense that those ties and bonds of longstanding affiliation are loosening. The people of Wales are in flow.”
Ryan Clatworthy, a 27-year-old menswear shop worker who lives in the Rhondda, is one of those in flow. He has served as a Labour councillor but is voting Plaid this time.
“I was an ardent remainer when it came to Brexit,” he said. “Now I’d rather Wales make its own decisions. You have more than 500 English MPs making decisions for England and Wales. I think it’s time for us to take more control.”
He mentions Covid, too. Rhondda Cynon Taf has had one of the highest death rates in the UK. “Someone I know lost his son and wife in the space of a week,” said Clatworthy. “The pandemic has made me think Wales can do a better job than Westminster.”
A recent poll suggested that just under 40% of Welsh people who expressed an opinion would vote for independence.
Siôn Jobbins, the chair of the pro-independence campaign group YesCymru, said the issue was no longer just about a sense of identity but about a growing belief that, in practical terms, the country would be better off going it alone.
The grassroots group has 18,500 members, up from 2,500 in February last year. “Things could move quickly,” said Jobbins. “If Scotland does hold an independence vote, it changes everything for Wales as well.”
Alan Sandry, a senior lecturer at Swansea University and an expert on devolution and Plaid, said his counterparts in Catalonia and the Basque country were taking a close interest in Wales. “They sense something is going on,” he said.
Sandry said when Plaid was in coalition with Labour from 2007 to 2011, it had been a “bit shy”. “Plaid let a few things go, it was so glad to be in government. I think a condition this time would be to have a referendum on the table.”
The former Plaid leader Leanne Wood was also to be found pounding the streets of Rhondda. She had canvassed there for almost 30 years but said Covid was making it feel different.
“There’s been an awful lot of tragedy in this area,” Wood said. “The death numbers have been horrific. Almost every family has been impacted in some way.”
People aged 16 and 17 can vote in this election for the first time. “I’ve had some brilliant conversations with them,” Wood said. “They talk about big-picture stuff, the environment, global politics, Trump.”
And independence. “I think that’s because they think longer term and can’t bear the idea of things staying as they are. That would perhaps be a bit unbearable. They’re looking for alternatives.”
