Today in Campaign 2016
- Donald Trump’s campaign manager has admitted “we are behind,” but the candidate himself is not making any such concession. Instead Trump this morning is grabbing hold of a “phony polls” conspiracy theory floated on Zero Hedge, a financial analysis site that also specializes in screwball politics headlines. The Drudge Report has a prominent link this morning to a Zero Hedge piece claiming that Wikileaks has revealed a Clinton campaign plot to rig the polls.
Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the Trump . We are going to WIN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2016
- In a speech at Gettysburg on Saturday, Donald Trump threatened to sue women who have accused him of unwanted touching and sexual harassment. Now Jill Harth, who said in a previous lawsuit that Trump cornered her and groped her in his daughter’s bedroom, has threatened to counter-sue Trump if he follows through (and there’s good reason to believe it’s an empty threat) (although he loves to sue people):
Breaking: original accuser @jillharth states via lawyer if Trump sues accusers, she'll counter sue him for lost income & emotional hurt pic.twitter.com/qSbtLrc0ek
— Lucia Graves (@lucia_graves) October 24, 2016
- Senator Elizabeth Warren got a crowd in Manchester, New Hampshire, super-charged with this attack on Trump:
He thinks because he has a mouth full of Tic-Tacs that he can force himself on any woman within groping distance. Well, I’ve got news for you, Donald Trump. Women have had it with guys like you. And nasty women have especially had it. Get this, Donald. Nasty women are tough. Nasty women are smart. And Nasty women vote. And on November 8, we nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever.
- And one last thing: Donald Trump made a soft launch of TrumpTV this evening. It was pretty awful.
How bad have things gotten for the Trump campaign in Utah?
Well, in addition to being in a three-way race for the state’s six electoral votes with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and conservative upstart Evan McMullin, the campaign is now spending valuable candidate facetime in Salt Lake City by sending vice presidential nominee Mike Pence to the state on Wednesday.
Republican VP nominee Mike Pence will be in SLC Wednesday for 3 pm event at Infinity Events Center. #utpol
— RobertGehrke (@RobertGehrke) October 25, 2016
Republicans have not lost Utah since 1964.
At least Donald Trump will be spending his time in a useful place... opening up his new hotel in Washington, DC.
Updated
Donald Trump accuses Hillary Clinton of 'deliberately inciting violence' with Donald Duck costumes
Trump campaign spokesperson Jason Miller has accused Hillary Clinton’s campaign of inciting violence at Donald Trump’s campaign rally, citing a trio of articles from right-leaning publications citing an edited (and, as yet, unverified) video from James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas:
Recent revelations surrounding Hillary Clinton’s corrupt campaign further illustrate that she will stop at nothing to secure the Presidency. In a totally disqualifying act that is a violent threat to our democracy, Hillary Clinton directly involved herself in inciting violence directed at Trump supporters. The Clintons have divided our country for far too long. On behalf of the American people, who deserve better, the Trump Campaign demands a full and immediate investigation into the acts of violence that the Clinton campaign and the DNC have incited on American voters.
The articles describe incidents in which Trump is “stalked by operatives in Donald Duck costumes.” The idea was a nod to Trump “ducking” the release of his tax returns.
Updated
Donald Trump, on babies:
We’re losing our jobs like a bunch of babies.
Donald Trump: 'I will be your voice'
Speaking in Tampa, Florida, Donald Trump vowed to end “rampant government corruption” and instead place his emphasis on the struggles of “the average man and woman.”
“I see you, I hear you, and I will never ever let you down - I promise,” Trump said. “We will never let you down. I will be your voice, and I will fight harder than anybody has ever fought for you - and I will win, because I know how to win.”
Continuing his riff on Hillary Clinton being too “corrupt” to be allowed to serve as president, Donald Trump told a rapt audience in Tampa, Florida, that polls, votes and the news media are all “rigged.”
“Our system is rigged, our system is rigged,” Trump said, of Clinton. “She never had a chance of being convicted, even though everybody in this audience - and boy do we have a lot of people - everybody here knows that she’s 100% guilty.”
“Our country has never reached a lower point than what we’re witnessing,” Trump said.
“If you look at her plans for Syria, these are the plans of a child,” Trump said, redirecting his ire towards Clinton’s plans for the humanitarian crisis in Syria.
Telling a rapt audience that his brand of change “only arrives once in a lifetime,” Republican presidential nominee asked his supporters to “rise above the noise and the clutter” and embrace the most crucial ingredient of the American character: “optimism.”
“So let’s try it!” Trump said, before launching into a tirade against “the media.”
“They’re trying to fix the election for Crooked Hillary,” Trump continued, using an appellation he coined for rival Hillary Clinton. “The best evidence that the system is rigged is the fact that Hillary Clinton, despite her many crimes, was even allowed to run for president in the first place.”
Trump’s declaration is met with a “LOCK HER UP” chant, which he applauds.
Speaking to a raucous and seld-described record-breaking crowd in Tampa, Florida, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump that Florida is his “second home.”
“These crowds are incredible, and it’s great to be back here in Tampa!”
Donald Trump campaigns in Tampa, Florida
Watch it here live:
Happening now on TrumpTV:
We are now seeing Hillary Clinton accused of ordering people dressed as ducks to incite violence at Trump rallies on Trump TV
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) October 24, 2016
American Bar Association: Donald Trump is a 'libel bully'
A committee of media lawyers at the largest professional organization for attorneys in the United States wrote a report condemning Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump as a “libel bully,” according to the New York Times, but was not allowed to publish the report lest Trump prove them right - by suing them.
Trump’s numerous threatened and executed lawsuits against journalists and news organizations over the years, the American Bar Association’s committee reported in a publication titled “Donald J. Trump Is a Libel Bully but Also a Libel Loser,” were examined in seven speech-related cases brought by Trump and his affiliated companies.
The conclusion was blistering.
“Trump’s lawsuits are worthy of a comedy routine, as when Trump sued HBO comedian Bill Maher for suckering Trump into sending his birth certificate to prove he was not the ‘spawn’ of an orangutan, and Trump hit back with a $5-million breach-of-contract lawsuit, only to withdraw it after the Hollywood Reporter ridiculed it,” the report stated. “Can anyone say Hustler v. Falwell?”
(That case, which ended up in front of the supreme court, resulted in the decision that public figures are allowed to be subjected to parody.)
Trump, the report declared, “is a libel bully. Like most bullies, he’s also a loser, to borrow from Trump’s vocabulary.”
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has more on Donald Trump’s insistence that the statistical tool of “oversampling” is tantamount to voter suppression (which it’s not):
Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against the media and against pollsters on Monday, alleging that both were part of a “rigged system” trying to undermine his candidacy.
Speaking in a rally in St Augustine, Florida, Trump falsely claimed that hacked emails of John Podesta showed that the Clinton campaign chair was “rigging the polls by oversampling Democrats”.
The Republican nominee, whose campaign is managed by the pollster Kellyanne Conway, called this “a voter suppression technique”. Oversampling is a method used by pollsters to get better measurements of specific sub-groups and is entirely normal in polling.
The statement followed a tweet from the Republican on Monday morning in which he claimed: “Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the Trump [sic]. We are going to WIN!” Almost every independent poll has consistently shown a steady lead for Clinton since late July and Conway has repeatedly conceded in recent days that Trump is behind.
TrumpTV begins at 6:30pm ET this evening.
A new poll from the Sheldon Adelson-owned Las Vegas Review Journal, which became the first major daily newspaper to endorse Donald Trump this weekend, shows the Republican nominee trailing Democratic rival by seven points among likely voters in Nevada, a difficult hill to climb for a candidate whose campaign manager still sees Nevada as a possible swing state.
The poll, conducted after the third and final presidential debate in Las Vegas last week, shows Clinton with seven-point lead over Trump among likely voters, 48% to 41%. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson trails at 6%, with 4% of voters saying that they are either undecided or are supporting another candidate.
Clinton’s lead has grown by six points in the same poll since late September, when the same survey showed the former secretary of state leading by a single point.
An annotated email from Donald Trump’s campaign manager explains his campaign’s path to 270 electoral votes:
Donald Trump must reach 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. We’ve outlined a map to show where we currently stand as well as the possible paths forward to win.
Here’s the map:
Kellyanne Conway's email to Trump supporters show Arizona, Utah firmly in his corner, with Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado up for grabs. pic.twitter.com/ylBURdmWBV
— Scott Bixby (@scottbix) October 24, 2016
While we are not taking any state for granted, those colored red are states that we can safely assume will vote for Donald Trump. Blue states favor Hillary. Blank states are too close to call.
This seems optimistic! Conway’s map shows confirmed swing states like Arizona and Utah “safely” in Donald Trump’s corner, while states where polling has shown voters to be solidly behind Democratic rival Hillary Clinton (Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin) to are depicted as swing states.
Over the past month, polls have shown us winning Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. If we maintain our leads in those six states, we can reliably claim 266 electoral votes. Hillary can claim 193. But we’d still have 4 electoral votes to go.
Sort of! There are polls in existence showing Trump winning these states, but aggregate polling currently shows Trump leading in none of those states.
Polls show us close in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Winning just any one of those states would lead us to victory.
An RCP average of polling shows Clinton leading in Pennsylvania by more than six points, New Hampshire by eight and Colorado by more than seven. “Close” might be a little generous.
Report: Obamacare premiums to go up double-digit percentages in 2017
The White House said this evening that premiums for for health insurance plans on the government-run exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act will increase by double-digit percentages in 2017, according to the Associate Press.
Citing a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, the AP found that, on average, premiums for midlevel insurance plans acquired through the exchanges will increase in cost by an average of 25%, with some states increasing by smaller amounts and others by much higher percentages.
In Arizona, for example, unsubsidized plans for a 27-year-old buying the “second-lowest cost silver plan” will increase by 116%, from $196 per month to $422.
“Headline rates are generally rising faster than in previous years,” said Health and Human Services spokesperson Kevin Griffis, but for those low-income people eligible for subsidies, “headline rates are not what they pay.”
Liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren launched the most stinging attack yet on Donald Trump’s sexism this morning during a rally alongside Hillary Clinton, the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino and Dan Roberts report.
Turning an insult Trump hurled at Clinton during the last presidential debate into a rallying cry for Democratic voters, the Massachusetts senator told supporters in Manchester, New Hampshire, it was time to hang the epithet “nasty woman” around his neck.
“Women have had it with guys like you, and nasty women have really had it with guys like you,” Warren said. “Get this, Donald. Nasty women are tough, nasty women are smart, and nasty women vote, and on November 8, we nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever.”
Coming days after Michelle Obama’s steely attack on Trump’s record with women, Warren opted for a blunter approach still.
“He thinks that because he has money he can call women fat pigs and bimbos,” Warren said. “He thinks because he is a celebrity that he can rate women’s bodies from one to 10. He thinks that because he has a mouthful of Tic Tacs he can force himself on any woman within groping distance.”
Warren’s comments referred to the publication earlier this month of an Access Hollywood recording from 2005 that captured Trump bragging that he could kiss and grope women without their consent because he is a “star”. “I better use some Tic Tacs just in case I start kissing her,” Trump says on the tape. “You know, I’m automatically attracted to beautiful – I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything ... Grab ’em by the pussy.”
The Republican candidate has denied claims from nearly a dozen alleged victims who have come forward since the emergence of the recording of him boasting of groping women.
Though once tipped as a leftwing alternative to Clinton, Warren has become a loyal stalwart for the campaign after her early attacks on Trump seemed to provoke him.
“She gets under his thin skin like nobody else,” Clinton said of Warren as she began her speech. “I expect if Donald heard what she said he’s tweeting like mad.”
I’m curious if as a Catholic you were offended by one of the WikilLeaks...
– Chuck Todd, to Tim Kaine, yesterday
Why has nobody asked Kaine about the horrible views emanated on WikiLeaks about Catholics? Media in the tank for Clinton but Trump will win!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2016
New poll: Hillary Clinton maintains lead over Donald Trump nationally
In a new CNN/ORC survey released this afternoon, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is shown to have maintained her 5-point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump among likely voters nationwide, beating Trump among likely voters on every issue and attribute minus the economy.
If the election were held today, the Clinton-Kaine ticket would garner support from 49% of likely voters, according to the poll, with the Trump-Pence ticket pulling in 44%. Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson wins the support of 3% of likely voters nationwide, while Green candidate Jill Stein is supported by 2% of likely voters. The margin between Clinton and Trump has remained steady since late September.
The survey, conducted between October 20-23, shows that 86% of likely voters say that they have made up their minds regarding the impending general election, with only 14% telling CNN that they’re swayable.
Asked to name their preferred candidate on the issues, voters sided with Clinton on almost every category, including terrorism, foreign policy, immigration, and the nomination of supreme court justices. Only on the economy did Trump claim a majority of likely voters’ endorsement, 51% to Clinton’s 47%.
Regarding the candidates’ personal attributes, Clinton’s lead over Trump stretched into the double digits: 61% of likely voters say that Clinton has the better temperament to serve as president, with only 32% of voters saying the same of Trump.
The margin of error for the poll’s results is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Updated
GOP senator re-endorses Donald Trump after Access Hollywood tape dust settles
Republican senator Mike Crapo has made an abrupt about-face following his un-endorsement of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, declaring in a statement released by his reelection campaign that he will vote for the embattled nominee despite the release of a video in which he bragged about sexually assaulting women.
“The choice we still have today and the choice we will have is between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton,” Crapo said. “Given that choice, I will vote for the Republican ticket: Trump and [vice presidential nominee Mike] Pence.”
After the release of a 2005 video that showed Trump bragging to an entertainment reporter that his fame allowed him to grab women’s genitals with impunity, Crapo had called for Trump to drop out of the race in favor of Pence.
“I can no longer endorse Donald Trump,” Crapo said at the time. “This is not a decision that I have reached lightly, but his pattern of behavior has left me no choice. His repeated actions and comments toward women have been disrespectful, profane and demeaning... I urge Donald Trump to step aside and allow the Republican party to put forward a conservative candidate like Mike Pence who can defeat Hillary Clinton.”
Upon reflection of the state of the race - and, perhaps, Trump’s continued popularity in Idaho, where he faces reelection - Crapo has returned to the fold.
“We must elect a president who will appoint strong Supreme Court justices who will interpret the Constitution as it was written and who will help lead us to a stronger free market and a more limited government,” Crapo said in the new statement. “In that context, I don’t think the choice is that hard when we realize the decision this country must make.”
Closing out his speech in St. Augustine, Florida, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump pleads with the audience of supporters to vote for him.
“Leave here today and vote,” Trump urges the crowd. “We have to win on November 8 - leave here today and vote, just get it over with.”
“I will promote life, defend religious liberty, and select justices in the mould of Justice [Antonin] Scalia,” Trump pledges. “When I’m president, the tide of big government will no longer threaten to wash away the tide of our dreams, our liberties or our freedoms.”
“Let us be united so that we can save our country and have a rebirth of American freedom and prosperity,” Trump finishes, reading a now-famous line from his teleprompter. “Just imagine what our country could accomplish if we started working together - as one people, under one god, saluting one American flag.”
The audience reacts with a loud and long “U-S-A” chant.
If the state of Florida turns out to vote for him, Trump concludes, “we will make America wealthy again, we will make America strong again, we will make America safe again, and we will make America great again!”
The Guardian’s Lucia Graves has more on Jill Harth’s threat to counter-sue Donald Trump if he follows through on his promise to file lawsuits against the 11 women who have accused him of sexual assault since the release of a video showing Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women:
Jill Harth, the first woman to publicly accuse Donald Trump of sexual misconduct, has threatened to countersue the Republican nominee for president, if he carries out the promise to sue his accusers he outlined in Gettysburg on Saturday.
“If he sues me, I know that truth is an absolute defense, and I will countersue for the emotional hurt and lost income his attacks have caused me,” Harth said in a statement on Monday afternoon.
Harth, who settled a 1997 sexual harassment lawsuit against Trump, initially stayed quiet as the businessman’s run for the White House gathered speed this year. She was inspired to speak to the Guardian in July, after Trump said she and other women were liars, when their stories were shared as part of a New York Times investigation.
“I’m not going to get an apology from him,” Harth told the Guardian. “But he really should have been taught, if you don’t have anything nice to say don’t say anything, OK? Don’t call me a liar.”
On Saturday in Gettysburg, Trump opened what was billed as a major policy address by saying he would sue all the women who have accused him of inappropriate sexual conduct. He has denied all such allegations.
His accusers, he said, had told “fabricated stories” that were part of a massive conspiracy perpetrated against him by Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the media.
“Every woman lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign, total fabrication,” he said, speaking hours before an 11th accuser, Jessica Drake, came forward at a press event in Los Angeles.
Trump also said “the events never happened” and added: “All of these liars will be sued after the election is over.”
Vowing to “remove all criminal aliens from our country,” Donald Trump tells an audience that undocumented immigrants have committed terrible crimes, and that the hands of federal immigration-enforcement officials have been tied by Hillary Clinton during her tenure as secretary of state.
“Murderers, drug lords, gang members,” Trump says, in describing criminal immigrants. “Suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur, including suppression of the Syrian refugee program.”
“We know nothing about ‘em. That’ll be the next great Trojan horse - you watch,” Trump says. “Watch what happens.”
“I will never let you be the forgotten people again,” Donald Trump tells an audience in St Augustine, Florida. “I will never let you down, I promise. I will never, ever let you down.”
“When we win, your voice will boom through the halls of Washington, and we’ll be heard across the world,” Trump vows. “This is bigger than Brexit. And folks, get out and vote - leave here and vote. Leave here and vote! Or we have wasted a hell of a lotta time, energy and - in my case - a lotta money! I’m not a politician, and I have never wanted to be a politician - believe me.”
“My only special interest is you, the American people.”
Donald Trump: 'I am your voice'
Speaking in St. Augustine, Florida, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump decried a shadowy network of globalists who, he alleges, control the global economy through manipulation of the news media, federal politicians and the economy.
“Without the media, Hillary Clinton would be nothing. They’re disgraceful,” Trump says, as the crowd boos and chants at the sectioned-off media covering the event.
“Without the dishonesty and deceit of the media, Hillary Clinton would be nothing. Nothing,” Trump continues. “When the people who control the political power in our society can rig investigations like her investigation was rigged, can rig polls - you see these phone polls - and rig the media, they can wield absolute power over your life, your economy and your country, and benefit from it.”
“They can ship your jobs all over the world, let drugs pour into your - look at the drugs not just here but all over - let drugs pour into your community and let Congress write loopholes to benefit the select few.”
“The media isn’t against me - it’s against all of you... like Hillary Clinton,” he says, journalists are “entitled, condescending and even contemptuous of the people who don’t share their elitist views. And this is for money, largely - money and power.”
“I see you and hear you - I am your voice.”
Updated
Calling the FBI’s decision to decline indicting Hillary Clinton over her use of private email servers during her tenure as secretary of state “one of the saddest moments in the history of our country,” Donald Trump promised supporters in St. Augustine, Florida, that his administration would “investigate the investigation.”
“The fact that she is even allowed to run means our system is rigged,” Trump says. “How is she to run for president? [sic] How is she allowed?”
“The system is corrupt, the system is broken. The system is corrupt, folks, and I’ve been saying it for a long time. The system is rigged.”
Speaking in St. Augustine, Florida, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump tells a crowd of supporters that “together we’re going to fix our rigged system,” a reference to Trump’s continued (and, so far, baseless) allegations that the electoral system is fixed against him.
“The fact that the Washington establishment has tried to hard to stop our campaign is only more proof that our campaign represents the kind of change that only arrive once in a lifetime,” Trump says. “Even those pundits that dislike me and dislike you and dislike everybody, they will admit- and they do admit - that they’ve never seen a movement like this.”
“We’re way ahead in Ohio, we’re way ahead in Iowa, we’re doing great in North Carolina, because people of this country are fed up with stupidity and weakness and we can’t beat Isis and all of the problems that we’ve got going. They’re fed up.”
Trump is met by a deafening - even by Trump-rally standards - “LOCK HER UP” chant.
After being introduced by onetime New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, who dismissed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton as a “stupid negotiator,” Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump mounts the stage at the St. Augustine Amphitheater in St. Augustine, Florida, to whistles, applause and a man dressed as Abraham Lincoln.
“We have people standing over there in plants - they’re in plants!” Trump says, pleased with the turnout. “I hope you’re comfortable.”
“In case you haven’t heard, we’re winning - not just in Florida, but we’re gonna win the whole thing.”
“We have a movement like they’ve never seen before - we have some very, very unhappy people out there,” Trump continues. “We’re gonna take our nation back - we’re gonna bring it back. It’s enough. It’s enough.”
Donald Trump campaigns in St. Augustine, Florida
Watch it live here:
Video: ‘phony polls’ to blame, Trump says
NB: “phoney” is the British spelling. But you already knew that.
They printed it:
Wow—Today's @nytimes features a 2-page spread of all the people, places & things Trump has insulted on Twitter since declaring his candidacy pic.twitter.com/eDzwZNIjkF
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 24, 2016
Read the online version here.
What if Trump won't concede? (cont'd)
What is the plan if he loses but says he won and thirty-something percent of the country believes him and he stages his own inauguration?
— Jon Mooallem (@jmooallem) October 24, 2016
The plan is: Historic first use of canned laughter in nightly news broadcasts. https://t.co/uOiaFhjJpr
— Alex Heard (@alexheard) October 24, 2016
We have two popes. Why not two presidents? Thus the campaign could be extended another four years. https://t.co/ZcBrNpWQTV
— Jack Shafer (@jackshafer) October 24, 2016
Trump on porn actress: 'Oh, I'm sure she's never been grabbed before'
Donald Trump has responded to accusations of forcible and unwanted touching made against him at the weekend by Jessica Drake, a porn star and sex educator, by saying, “Oh, I’m sure she’s never been grabbed before.”
Trump’s comments, made in an appearance on WGIR radio’s “New Hampshire Today,” were reported by CNN:
“These are stories that are made up, these are total fiction. You’ll find out that, in the years to come, these women that stood up, it was all fiction,” he said. “They were made up. I don’t know these women, it’s not my thing to do what they say. You know I don’t do that. I don’t grab them, as they say, on the arm.”
“One said, ‘he grabbed me on the arm.’ And she’s a porn star. You know, this one that came out recently, ‘he grabbed me and he grabbed me on the arm.’ Oh, I’m sure she’s never been grabbed before,” Trump said.
"No one respects women more than me" https://t.co/kfpR1uP1zs
— Anne Helen Petersen (@annehelen) October 24, 2016
Updated
Trump took $17m insurance payment – but extent of damage questioned
Donald Trump said he received a $17 million insurance payment in 2005 for hurricane damage to Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, but The Associated Press found little evidence of such large-scale damage. The AP reports:
Two years after a series of storms, the real estate tycoon said he didn’t know how much had been spent on repairs but acknowledged he pocketed some of the money. Trump transferred funds into his personal accounts, saying that under the terms of his policy, “you didn’t have to reinvest it.”
In a deposition in an unrelated civil lawsuit, Trump said he got the cash from a “very good insurance policy” and cited ongoing work to the historic home.
“Landscaping, roofing, walls, painting, leaks, artwork in the — you know, the great tapestries, tiles, Spanish tiles, the beach, the erosion,” he said of the storm damage. “It’s still not what it was.”
Trump’s description of extensive damage does not match those of Mar-a-Lago members and even Trump loyalists. In an interview about the estate’s history, Trump’s longtime former butler, Anthony Senecal, recalled no catastrophic damage. He said Hurricane Wilma, the last of a string of storms that barreled through in 2004 and 2005, flattened trees behind Mar-a-Lago, but the house itself only lost some roof tiles.
“That house has never been seriously damaged,” said Senecal, discussing Mar-a-Lago’s luck with hurricanes. “I was there for all of them.”
Just over two weeks after Wilma, Trump hosted 370 guests at Mar-a-Lago for the wedding of his son Donald Jr.
While part of that celebration did have to be moved away from the front lawn due to hurricane damage, wedding photographs by Getty Images showed the house, pools, cabanas and landscaping in good repair.
Read the whole piece here.
Clinton has spent her speech so far talking about how great Warren is and now is on to how great Hassan is. She doesn’t sound like a candidate who feels under a lot of pressure to win her own race.
HuffPost Pollster’s polling average has her up 5-6 points in the Granite state:
Stuart Stevens is a longtime Republican operative and was a top strategist on Mitt Romney’s campaign:
Amazing Stuart Stevens description of Trump's TV surrogates: pic.twitter.com/pIwmsf2jv2
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 24, 2016
#ff:
If two years ago, somebody said @realDonaldTrump would be nominee & Breitbart running campaign, would anyone have thought this isn't likely? https://t.co/sIpbgRkALf
— stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) October 24, 2016
Well the Clinton campaign is pretty organized. They already have the Warren sound bite (see last block) clipped and on social media.
Warren isn’t even done speaking yet.
"Get this Donald: nasty women are smart, nasty women are tough, and nasty women vote.” —@ElizabethForMA: https://t.co/uTXX68HXhY
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) October 24, 2016
Warren: 'get this, Donald. Nasty women are tough'
Senator Elizabeth Warren has just gotten the Manchester, New Hampshire, crowd super-charged with this attack on Trump:
He thinks because he has a mouth full of Tic-Tacs that he can force himself on any woman within groping distance. Well, I’ve got news for you, Donald Trump. Women have had it with guys like you. And nasty women have especially had it.
Get this, Donald. Nasty women are tough. Nasty women are smart. And Nasty women vote. And on November 8, we nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever.
They cheered every line.
Here’s a new Clinton ad, “Barber shop,” featuring African American voters saying they’re with her:
The presidential and gubernatorial races in North Carolina remain tight, as Monmouth polling sees it. But has incumbent Republican senator Richard Burr pulled away a bit from challenger Deborah Ross, a former state representative?:
Monmouth Poll
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) October 24, 2016
NC LVs (+/- Aug)
HRC 47 (+3)
DJT 46 (+4)
Burr 49 (+4)
Ross 43 (EVEN)
McCrory 48 (+5)
Cooper 47 (-5)https://t.co/WU8xYymTzz
On the state of the US senate:
NC seems to me less likely of a Dem pickup than pretty much any of the other close pickup opportunities (PA, NH, WI, IL, MO, IN).
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 24, 2016
If former Nevada attorney general Caroline Cortez Masto can stay ahead of US representative Joe Heck in the Nevada senate race, and Clinton wins the presidency, then the Democrats need four pickups to gain control of the senate. Illinois and Wisconsin are likely Democratic wins. So they need two more.
Updated
Senator Elizabeth Warren is alongside Clinton onstage. Introducing them both is governor Maggie Hassan, who’s running for Republican Kelly Ayotte’s US senate seat.
Updated
Here’s Clinton now in New Hampshire, taking the stage.
Trump accuser threatens counter-suit
In a speech at Gettysburg on Saturday, Donald Trump threatened to sue women who have accused him of unwanted touching and sexual harassment.
Now Jill Harth, who said in a previous lawsuit that Trump cornered her and groped her in his daughter’s bedroom, has threatened to counter-sue Trump if he follows through (and there’s good reason to believe it’s an empty threat) (although he loves to sue people):
Breaking: original accuser @jillharth states via lawyer if Trump sues accusers, she'll counter sue him for lost income & emotional hurt pic.twitter.com/qSbtLrc0ek
— Lucia Graves (@lucia_graves) October 24, 2016
What’s going on in Nevada? The state is notoriously difficult to poll. But Jon Ralston, the dean of Silver state journalism, reports that the Democrats had a “blowout weekend” for early and absentee voting:
Dems have 21,000-vote advantage in urban Nevada after blowout weekend. My early voting blog updated: https://t.co/1pS7nvPBhm
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 24, 2016
Follow @RalstonReports, who also saw the 2010 Reid comeback and the 2014 GOP landslide coming https://t.co/O6toCmRI31
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) October 24, 2016
A win in Nevada for Clinton would likely coincide with a strong national performance for her – one that would involve her winning the presidency before the Nevada result is in (polls there close at 10pm ET; in 2012 the state was projected at just before midnight). In any case, six Nevada electoral votes would be welcome insurance for Clinton against, say, something crazy happening in New Hampshire.
The Hillary Clinton - Elizabeth Warren event in New Hampshire is getting going, though there’s no sign yet of the marquee names. Here’s a live video stream:
Clinton will get a boost in Cleveland from Jay-Z, NBC reports:
Jay Z will perform at a Clinton campaign concert in Cleveland before Election Day, per an aide (K Perry, J Lo & Bon Jovi already announced)
— Monica Alba (@albamonica) October 24, 2016
HuffPost Pollster has the race in Ohio tight as ever:
Trump: 'I believe we're actually winning'
Donald Trump, in a visit to a farmers’ market in Florida, has repeated his campaign message that the polls are wrong, wrong, wrong.
“I believe we’re actually winning,” Trump told people at the farm, where he held a roundtable discussion on trade and regulatory issues. BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray, who’s holding down the Trump media pool, reports:
“If you read the New York Times and if you read some of these phony papers — these are phony, disgusting, dishonest papers — but if you read the stuff, it’s like what are we doing?”
“The truth is I think we’re winning,” Trump said. He mentioned the Investors Daily poll, which he called the “singly most accurate poll for the last three cycles,” as well as Rasmussen.
Some folks pt out "IBD/TIPP has an A- on @fivethirtyeight!" Avg of pollsters w/ A (better than A-) or better since 1st debate: Clinton +7
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 22, 2016
Trump said he was up in Ohio, Iowa, “we’re doing great in North Carolina,” and “I think we’re doing great in Florida, I think we’re going to win Florida big.”
‘Mothers of the Movement’ team with Clinton
As Hillary Clinton took the stage at a black church in Durham, the congregation rose. Their enthusiasm was not reserved for the Democratic presidential nominee. It was also for the five women who stood beside her.
They call themselves the “Mothers of the Movement” and they are bound by the grief of losing a child to gun violence or in encounters with police. In a time of heightened racial tension, they are dedicated to social justice. They are also committed to electing Clinton.
Five mothers – Sybrina Fulton, Gwen Carr, Lucia McBath, Geneva Reed-Veal and Maria Hamilton – appeared with Clinton on Sunday, at the Union Baptist Church in Durham and then at an event in Raleigh. Seeking to galvanize the African American vote, they have visited battleground states, imploring those concerned with criminal justice reform to turn advocacy into action.
“You have no business staying home in this election,” said Reed-Veal, whose daughter Sandra Bland was found hanged in a jail cell, three days after she was arrested by a Texas state trooper during a traffic stop.
“If you decide to stay home, shut your mouth. Do not complain about anything that’s going on, do not talk about your neighborhood, do not talk about your neighbor, do not talk about what’s not going on.”
Had such words come from the candidate, some might have taken offense. They were met with applause and scattered cries of “Amen.”
Read further:
Act now! While supplies last! Everything must go! “Join the big league”!
Going out of business sale pic.twitter.com/7hrvY8fxCx
— Eric Rauchway (@rauchway) October 24, 2016
The “membership card” Trump’s Facebook refers to was a fundraising conceit his campaign came up with apparently for people who think having a certain credit card is cool.
Jill Harth, a makeup artist who said in a lawsuit that Trump cornered her and groped her in his daughter’s bedroom, would recognize the offer to “join the big league.” Here’s part of what she told the Guardian’s Lucia Graves in an October interview:
Trump did everything in his power to get me to leave him. He constantly called me and said: ‘I love you, baby, I’m going to be the best lover you ever had. What are you doing with that loser, you need to be with me, you need to step it up to the big leagues.’
We may be getting a picture of Trump with pumpkins – Trumpkins – this morning. The candidate’s first event today is a farmers’ round table in Boynton Beach, Florida, at a place called Bedner’s Farm Fresh Market, which apparently has a decent pumpkin patch. Stay tuned.
Clinton looks to swipe 'safe' Trump states
No Democratic presidential candidate has won in Texas – Bush country, oil country, screw-Washington country – since Watergate. Yet polls are emerging that suggest Texas might now be in play for the Democrats, the Guardian’s Tom Dart reported Saturday:
A University of Houston poll published on Tuesday found Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by only three percentage points, within the margin of error, in a four-way race. Also that day, a Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll pegged Trump’s advantage at only two points, the same as in Florida.
Read further analysis from Tom here. In response to the polling shift and other indicators, the Real Clear Politics site has moved Texas to its tossup column.
Clinton seems to have even stronger prospects in Arizona, which hasn’t gone Democratic since Truman (with the exception of Bill Clinton’s reelection). The Cook political report has Arizona in its tossup column; Sabato’s crystal ball thinks the state leans Democratic this year.
A map circulated today by the Trump campaign ignores Clinton’s inroads in both states, and in Georgia, where polls depict an unexpectedly close race. But Trump is the king of exaggerated claims and his failure to admit weakness in these places shouldn’t be surprising.
What might be surprising in this map: has Trump conceded New York?!?
Trump campaign sends reporters this battleground map, says "those colored red are states that we can safely assume will vote for Trump." pic.twitter.com/SYoWJUl5Cz
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) October 24, 2016
Trump says Clinton 'making up phony polls'
Donald Trump’s campaign manager has admitted “we are behind,” but the candidate himself is not making any such concession.
Instead Trump this morning is grabbing hold of a “phony polls” conspiracy theory floated on Zero Hedge, a financial analysis site that also specializes in screwball politics headlines. The Drudge Report has a prominent link this morning to a Zero Hedge piece claiming that Wikileaks has revealed a Clinton campaign plot to rig the polls.
Is that too many plot twists for this hour on a Monday? Not for Trump, who warns that Democrats are trying to “suppress the the [him]”:
Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the Trump . We are going to WIN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2016
We don’t always spotlight Drudge, despite the site’s track record of influencing the conversation on the political right, because it’s a cesspool of bigotry. But the election is in two weeks and it’s time for the candidates, and the coalitions arrayed behind them, to make their closing arguments. So what will they be? Let’s glance over there...
Updated
Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, said on Sunday “we are behind”.
“She has some advantages,” Conway told NBC News, “like $66m in ad buys just in the month of September. She has a former president, happens to be her husband, campaigning for her, and she’s seen as the incumbent.”
(Perhaps she’s seen as the incumbent because Trump calls her “four more years of Barack Obama” in every single speech?)
Conway continued:
[Trump’s] going to visit all of these swing states many times and we feel that with Hillary Clinton under 50% in some of these places, even though she has run a very traditional and expensive campaign, that we have a shot of getting those undecided voters.
It’s true that Clinton registers less than 50% support in some battleground states. But the polls in general look good – look great – for her. Clinton hit 53% support in ABC News’ tracking poll at the weekend, while Trump averages 41.5% support nationally. One outlier poll, the Investors Business Daily poll, has had Trump in the lead:
People freaking out because 2 polls today: Clinton +12 & Trump +1. More important: Trump 41 & Trump 43. All polls after tape, Trump avg 41.5 pic.twitter.com/PhqyK7OGqA
— David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) October 23, 2016
I count 284 likely voter state polls taken in states totaling 271 electoral votes (Clinton's base map) since 1st debate. Trump has led in 1.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 23, 2016
Where the candidates are today
Hillary Clinton will be joined on the trail by Senator Elizabeth Warren in Manchester, New Hampshire. Donald Trump has two events in Florida, where Clinton running mate Tim Kaine also has two events. Mike Pence has two events in North Carolina. Joe Biden has a couple of Ohio events. Chelsea Clinton is attending a fundraiser in New York City.
Barack Obama has two private fundraisers for Clinton in San Diego and Los Angeles, and he’s taping Jimmy Kimmel.
11th Trump accuser steps forward
Trump wants UK-style libel laws
Trump on US vs UK libel laws: "in England you have a good chance of winning..Over here they don’t have to apologize" https://t.co/Y91L2yDIxz pic.twitter.com/s9s6HPKVsf
— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) October 24, 2016
Thanks for reading and please join us in the comments.
sometimes you just need a video of donald trump in overalls singing "green acres" https://t.co/QnvRYHigBo
— Rob Flaherty (@Rob_Flaherty) October 24, 2016
