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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
David Byrom

Highly respected analyst makes big Championship prediction - good news for Leeds United, bad news for Bristol City and Nottingham Forest

Bristol City may be on a high after their victory over Cardiff City but a leading data analyst does not expect them to make the play-offs.

Nate Silver rose to fame off the back of correctly calling the outcomes to the 2008 and 2012 US elections, being named one of TIME Magazine's 100 most influential people in the world.

Yet his background is actually in sports data modelling, and Silver's website, Five Thirty Eight , has created a model to predict how the Championship will finish.

(FiveThirtyEight.com)

It is bad news for the Robins, who are predicted to finish eighth in the table, two points off the play-offs.

The Robins are said to have a three per cent chance of winning the title, a 13 per cent chance of getting promoted, and a 26 per cent chance of making the play-offs.

Finishing ahead of City in sixth place would be Swansea, who edge out Nottingham Forest on goal difference.

Leeds United are predicted to win the title, having a 39 per cent likelihood of winning the title and a massive 69 per cent chance of getting promoted.

West Brom are forecast to finish second - they have a 20 per cent chance of winning the title and a 47 per cent chance of winning promotion.

Fulham are predicted to finish third, with a 41 per cent chance of making the play-offs and a 36 per cent chance of getting promoted.

Preston North End and Brentford are the other two teams tipped to finish in the top six.

At the other end of the division, Barnsley, Luton Town and Middlesbrough are all tipped to be relegated.

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