Prices in the UK are set to have risen faster last month as school holidays boosted travel costs and grocery bills remain elevated, economists said.
Some experts said an “Oasis bump” could have contributed to higher accommodation prices in July.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest inflation dataset on Wednesday.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to have increased to 3.7% in July, from the 3.6% recorded in June.
The school summer holidays are likely to have seen airfares rise considerably, with airlines typically bumping up prices in July amid stronger demand from families.
Analysts for Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that airfares could surge by 17.1% between June and July.
Rail costs and package holidays are also set to have jumped amid the spike in summer travel.
July’s Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation will also be announced on Wednesday.
The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated train fare rises in England in 2026, but this year’s 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.
Banking group Investec has forecast this year’s July RPI figure will be 4.5%, which means fares could jump by 5.5%.
Pressure group Railfuture told the PA news agency “it would be outrageous” if fares rose by that much.
Meanwhile, economists have pointed to a possible spike in hotel prices helping drive up CPI inflation in July.
Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said this could partly be attributed to British band Oasis kicking off their reunion tour in July.
The concerts brought in hordes of fans to arenas in Cardiff, Manchester, London and Edinburgh, which could have driven greater demand for hotel rooms.
Accommodation prices could rise by as much as 9% in July, compared with June, “with the Oasis concerts having a strong impact on Manchester prices alone”, the economist said.
Mr Raja is predicting headline UK inflation will have risen to 3.8% in July.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets for Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The Oasis tour, which saw high demand for hospitality around the gig dates, has the potential to push up inflation in the sector during July.
“We are unlikely to see the Gallagher effect show up in quite the same way as Taylor Swift’s bump to prices in June 2024.
“But demand for hotel rooms, beer, bucket hats and Nineties-style gear could be one of the factors that keep inflation heading higher.”
Food prices have also been rising in recent months – partly driven by higher ingredients, labour and regulatory costs.
Annual food price inflation increased for the third month in a row in June, hitting the highest rate since February 2024.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said there were “particular worries about domestic food price inflation as well as uncertainty around how (US President Donald) Trump’s tariffs could push up prices”.
The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will increase further this year and peak at about 4% in September, before easing throughout the next two years.
The central bank said accelerating food and energy prices have been key drivers in the uptick in inflation.
