Guy de Jonquieres (how's that for a name, eh?) makes some salient points in an editorial in today's Financial Times. The web article's subscription only, so I'll give you a taster.
Some commentators predict China may rival US information technology leadership in only a decade... Since the late 1980s, the number of science and engineering doctorates awarded in China has exploded. It now has more researchers than Japan. Its annual research and development spending, though still well below US levels, is rising five times faster, while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says China's biggest exports are now high-tech products.
But those dazzling statistics mask an often more mundane reality. The bulk of China's "high-tech" exports are actually low-margin commodity products such as personal computers and DVD players, assembled from imported components that account for most of their value.
He is also cynical about those who say this is merely a build-up to the real thing, a prelude to China's impending control built on the back of a huge population and high brainpower. "R&D effort is only a rather crude measure of input," he says. "China still has much to prove".
Of course, with the sale of IBM's PC arm to Lenovo recently, there has been a lot of speculation over China's high-tech future. With Japan sliding, it looks like there's a mantle ready to be taken - but really, it is South Korea that is the powerhouse we should be taking notice of.
