MIAMI _ Deep breaths, Dolphins fans: Your team is probably going to have the No. 1 pick in the draft.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Dolphins (0-3) are 15 times more likely to pick first overall than the next-worst team.
They have a 76.6-percent chance at finishing with the league's worst record and only a 1.3-percent chance to draft outside of the top 5.
And their odds of landing the No. 1 pick are even higher when you factor in the Steelers' first-rounder, which has a 1-percent chance of being No. 1 (and a 25-percent chance of being top 5).
But what if disaster strikes?
What if the Dolphins beat the Jets, Bengals and Redskins to finish with the third or fourth overall selection?
Catastrophe, right?
Not according to Jim Nagy, who probably has a better feel for the 2020 draft class than any person not currently employed by an NFL franchise.
Nagy is the executive director of the Senior Bowl, the annual all-star showcase for draft prospects in Mobile, Alabama.
He and his staff spend fall weekends on the road, getting a close look at the hundreds of college seniors who might ultimately get an invite. They have already released a 425-man Senior Bowl watch list _ which doesn't even include graduating juniors who will ultimately be eligible for the game.
And his take?
The draft doesn't end with Tua Tagovailoa. And it might not even begin with him.
This year's expected class of quarterbacks might be so good, Nagy believes, Tagovailoa isn't ultimately the No. 1 pick (although most expect him to be it).
While the college football season is only a third of the way over, he believes the 2020 class could rival that of 2018 _ if not surpass it.
"When you're scouting in the league, when you're giving starting level grades, it breaks down into two categories," Nagy told the Miami Herald Wednesday. "Franchise quarterbacks, guys who truly can carry a team. Then there's the 'win with' starters. If you're good enough around them, you have a chance to compete for the playoffs, but not necessarily win a Super Bowl.
"I think the past year's class had a lot of 'win with' quarterbacks," he continued. "This coming year's class, there are franchise quarterbacks."
How many?
As many as four, Nagy said, if LSU's Joe Burrow continues his rocket ascent. The others are Tagovailoa, Oregon's Justin Herbert and Utah State's Jordan Love. That means a top-10 pick should be good enough to land a great prospect _ and a top-5 pick would all but guarantee it.
Now two of those four quarterbacks could conceivably return for another season, but few think that is even a remote possibility.
But Burrow and Herbert are eligible for the Senior Bowl, and of course are on the game's watchlist.
Nagy, who was an NFL scout for some two decades before taking over the Senior Bowl, provided his assessment of both of those players.
_ Justin Herbert: "The thing with Herbert is, the thing you're leaning on, you're selling the upside of the player. For as much as guys have heard about him, he's still pretty raw. Technically, he's a guy that a lot of guys want to work with. His ceiling is really high. Really powerful arm. Just needs to be more consistent game-to-game. There's fluctuation in his play. Accuracy seems to be improved so far this year, early on. That was one of his inconsistent areas. He's definitely going to be in that conversation."
_ Joe Burrow: "Off junior tape, he was probably more of a third-round player, and then early on this year, he's taken a really big jump. ... The more I've seen Joe Burrow, the more I've liked him. Really nice feel in the pocket, tough as nails, doesn't flinch. Not afraid to stare down rush. Total throwback type of dude. If I was a GM, he's the type of dude I'd want to be my quarterback and face of my franchise. Reminds me of Jim McMahon. Likes to talk trash. That Alabama game is going to be a lot of fun."
Expect the Dolphins to have multiple scouts, and perhaps even Chris Grier, at that LSU-Bama game.
And then the coaching staff should have a full week to evaluate, and perhaps even work, with Burrow in Mobile. The NFL chooses the teams that will coach the Senior Bowl and it goes by draft order, unless a team does not have a coaching staff in place.
That means expect Brian Flores and his guys to work the game _ unless the Dolphins defy the odds.
