During their peak years under current Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton, the New Orleans Saints featured a two-headed rushing attack that featured, most memorably, the tandem of running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. After Ingram departed, the team tried to plug veteran RB Latavius Murray in alongside Kamara, but it wasn’t as effective. Then, over the last two years, New Orleans has leaned on Kamara as the primary back.
The results haven’t been great, and the offseason signing of RB Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with the Detroit Lions last year, was a move to help bring the ground game back to its previous heights while lessening the load on Kamara. The Saints also drafted running back Kendre Miller in the third round, though that seems more like a move with an eye on the future rather than 2023.
While Payton is gone, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael remains, entering his 15th season in the role. He’ll be tasked with integrating Williams, as well as new QB Derek Carr, and reinvigorating an offense that finished 19th and 22nd, respectively, in scoring the past two years after ranking in the top 10 in each of the previous 10 campaigns.
Alvin Kamara
Before we touch on Kamara’s performance on the field, it’s worth remembering that he was charged with a misdemeanor stemming from an incident early in the offseason, and though he recently settled the charge, the NFL could still suspend Kamara — similar situations have seen suspensions of around four games, though it’s impossible to know definitively what the league will do.
If that cloud looming over 2023 isn’t enough, the veteran is also coming off a pair of disappointing seasons. After averaging 1,541 combined yards and 11.6 touchdowns over his first four years in the league, Kamara has seen those numbers drop to 1,362 yards and 6.5 TDs over the last two. Although he’s missed six games during those two years, his durability should still be considered above average. He’s also an elite receiver for the position, and cutting back on his rushing attempts should allow Kamara to be more explosive in the passing game.
Jamaal Williams
Being the thunder to someone else’s lightning has essentially been Williams’ role throughout his career, first with the Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones, and then with the Lions’ D’Andre Swift (now of the Philadelphia Eagles). It’s a role that Williams has filled ably, though not exceptionally. That’s something fantasy owners shouldn’t lose track of, as prior to last year’s 1,066-yard, 17-touchdown performance, Williams had averaged 517 yards rushing, 224 yards receiving, and 4.2 touchdowns in five years.
Williams is a physical runner, but he’s not much of a home run threat, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry over his career. While he did little as a receiver in Detroit, Williams is excellent in pass protection, and he’s not someone that needs to be shuttered on passing downs; in that way, he and Kamara are similar, so defenses won’t be able to get a read based on who’s in the game.
Kendre Miller
As noted, the selection of Miller reads more as a move for the future, though any suspension of Kamara could get the rookie some early touches.That said, Miller is recovering from knee surgery to repair a torn MCL and isn’t quite ready yet as he’s on the non-football injury list to open camp.
The TCU product is an elusive runner, and while he has work to do in the passing game, he does a nice job once he’s secured the catch. Don’t expect to see much of him when both Kamara and Williams are available.
Fantasy football outlook
While the exact distribution of touches can’t be known at this point, it seems to be a safe bet that we’ll see a workload reduction for Kamara, especially in terms of carries — he averaged 168 in Years 1-4, and 232 in Years 5-6. We could also see heavier involvement in the passing game, though the Saints have a potentially high-usage duo in the form of WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas to feed, assuming the latter can stay healthy.
With better depth and a possible suspension on the horizon, Kamara, a one-time top-10 lock, is now more of a low-end RB2 and fringe top-20 fantasy back, depending on what the league has to say about his plea deal.
Williams is likely to lead the team in carries, but you can’t read too much into last season’s numbers given his middling production in previous years. He’d be a nice fit as a strong RB4.
Miller shouldn’t be drafted in most leagues if Kamara avoids a suspension, though he would carry value if either veteran misses time, presuming his knee gets right soon.
