The European Union (EU) referendum is only one sleep away.
Those of you living outside of the British Isles may have been insulated from the constant churn of Brexit-related news articles, fiery editorials and even inkl’s own explainer over the past several months.
Lucky you.
Now it’s time for your isolation from global events to come to an end (pun intended).
We’ll start with the simple stuff, like the name: a simple abbreviation and contraction of the words ‘British’ and ‘exit’. This refers to the movement which seeks a British exit from the EU (adherents of this movement are labelled ‘Brexiteers’, which is either a pejorative or a badge of honour depending on where you stand on the issue).
A Brexit is a big deal.
It’s a big deal for Britain, Europe, and all those who hope to make linguistic contractions a more regular feature of the English vernacular.
So what’s the deal with Britain and the EU?
The EU is an economic and political project that grew out of the ashes of the Second World War. Initially called the European Economic Community (EEC), it was informed by a belief that removing the barriers to trade would rebuild Europe’s wealth and disincentivise nationalism (and the conflict it engenders).
It proved a very catchy idea; by the 1980’s many Western and Northern European nations had subscribed to the ideas of standardising tariffs, customs, passport controls. Cooperation between these countries extended into other important areas like common defence policy, justice and policing.
Britain joined the EEC in 1973 but its assertive labour unions (and their allies in the Labour Party) were wary of any attempt to reduce the barriers to the flow of capital. So much so was the public scepticism that a referendum on Britain’s membership in the EEC was held in 1975. 67% of votes were cast in favour of remaining.
However, Euroscepticism has been growing steadily in Britain ever since. The fear of ever widening international trade wrecking local industries is arguably more noticeable today.
What’s the problem?
The European Union, on paper, sounds like a pretty great idea. It’s Schengen Zone allows the free flow of Europeans across borders without passports. It actively legislates to create a standardised, fair and non-discriminatory body of laws that apply to all those within the EU.
The adjudication of labour markets and workers rights have converged to a point of likeness. There are central courts and arbitrators far above the power of any single nation at which Europeans can plead their cases. There is cooperation amongst intelligence apparatus, customs agencies and police forces.
All of the above can be attributed to the EU’s guiding ethos of creating an “ever closer union”.
And that is the problem.
Relinquishing a state’s territorial, economic, political, military, business, fiscal and judicial power to an external authority is, to put it politely, a vexed goal.
Many people (and by no means are the British alone in this) believe this cleaves away the integrity of the nation state for unsatisfactory results. It’s too high a price to pay.
This is why Tory MP, ex-London Mayor, and fiery eurosceptic Boris Johnson thinks that the 23rd of June will be known as Britain’s ‘Independence Day’ if the Brexit vote is successful.
The problem with the Britain’s relationship with the EU is not just an abstract one about balancing power between the state and the international body. It’s deeply rooted the socio-economic climate of Europe.
The migrant crisis sweeping over Europe, the toxic legacy of bailouts and austerity following the GFC, and the spectre of terrorism are not lost on the citizens of the United Kingdom. It is a fundamental difference in worldview that separates those who think these challenges a better weathered within the EU and those who seek distance from them.
Who wants to Remain?
The Remain campaign is a diverse and powerful one, led by the Prime Minister David Cameron and roughly half of his Conservative Party (notably including the Chancellor George Osborne).
Although it was Cameron who set the wheels in motion for this debate, he has spent months actively dissuading people from voting to leave the EU. He is joined by every living British Prime Minister of every political denomination.
The Remain campaign has brought together old political foes, with the Labour Party (led by Jeremy Corbyn), The Liberal Democrats, The Greens, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein, and the Scottish National Party all united under the same banner.
The financial services industry has been highly critical of any attempt to leave the EU for fear of thousands of Britain’s most profitable and powerful businesses losing access to the central marketplace. The feeling is felt the whole way across British industries from the stately university lecture halls to the heaving stadiums of the Premier League.
Who wants to Leave?
The Leave campaign is led by three prominent politicians. As mentioned earlier, Boris Johnson has been a key fighter for the eurosceptics, although many insiders claim that this is as much a career ploy to wedge Cameron for leadership of the Tories as it is a rational decision. The other major Tory Leaver is the Secretary of State for Justice, Michael Gove. Nearly half of their party has joined them to the dismay of the government.
The last leader is the most divisive: Nigel Farage. Farage’s far-right anti-immigration United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) have been the loudest and most abrasive proponents of the Leave campaign. UKIP’s aggressive eurosceptic view has seen them decried as nuffys and bigots at times, though their support is real; they received millions of votes at the 2015 general election.
The Campaign
It has been an acrimonious few months in the British Isles. The Leave and Remain camps have both used fear campaigns to whack one another. In a sorrowful moment last week, a Labour MP Jo Cox was shot to death while campaigning for Remain. After a hectic few weeks of attacks, Cox’s murder forced both sides to calm their supporters out of respect. Here the key issues.
The economy
The centrepiece of the Remain campaign has been the economic disadvantage that Britain would find itself in in the event of a Brexit. Access to the open market of Europe is simply too valuable; if they lost access it would lead to budget cuts, austerity and possibly recession. They argue that a sizable amount of UK jobs are tied to trade with the EU.
The Leave campaign has had to battle against the combined weight of the Exchequer and the major financial institutions to argue its case that if Britain were free of EU constraints it would be better able to seek tailored and advantageous trade agreements around the world.
Similarly, the £190m that the UK pays in fees to the EU each year would be better used paying for the National Health Service. Leave flatly rejects Remains figures, arguing that 300,000 jobs would be created leaving.
Immigration
Intricately linked to the economy and employment rate, this has been where the Leave camp has been most active. Leave has been deeply critical of the scale of migration from Europe. This has been often conflated with fears of mass irregular immigration and asylum seeking from the several million migrants currently in Europe.
Leave has repeatedly linked the level of legal and illegal migration to the dwindling job market for Britons, a common refrain in the world today. At times the attacks on migrant communities have been own goals. A recent UKIP poster depicting a tide of human refugees crossing into Europe emblazoned with the words “Breaking point” has been compared to visually similar Nazi propaganda.
Remain argues that Britain already has control of its borders as it is not part of the Schengen Zone. They claim that losing the customs and immigration checks on the other side of the English Channel would actually make it harder to control their own borders.
So what happens tomorrow?
Tomorrow the voting booths will open. British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over the age of 18 who are residents in the United Kingdom will be eligible to vote. Alongside them are British citizens living overseas (although they must have been on the UK electoral roll at some point in the last 15 years).
Those eligible will be faced with a single question, “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” Like any election there will be sausage sizzles, colourful ‘how to vote’ cards and desperate last-minute pollsters. The very latest polls show a dead heat, so every last second will be squeezed for air time.
Then what?
If Britain leaves, the results will be instantaneous. The stock market is predicted to drop significantly. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (the mechanism to rescind EU membership) would be activated, although it would take two whole years to leave the union.
As the third largest economy in the EU and the fifth largest in the world, Britain’s departure would send ripples through the global economy. Brussels has been planning for this outcome, though the damage would be intergenerational on both sides of the Channel.
The European project has only ever grown. The drive to create a more unified Europe for the future will be reversed; raising the possibility of other exits cascading forth. In continental Europe there is a notable amount of right wing anti-EU groups that may ride on the wave of resentment a Brexit would create.
In the economic powerhouses of France and Germany there is a tangible distrust of the union, not to mention in the austerity-stricken countries of Spain and Greece.
Stock markets in Asia would be shaken, but closer to home the real impact would be felt in the relationship between the United States and Britain.
David Cameron would be expected to resign immediately and a the fight would begin for control of the Tory Party. Although his job is not in anyway legally tied to the referendum, there is precedent for the PM to resign in the event of a lost vote of this scale.
But if Britain decides to stay? Well, that option is far less dramatic but will ask some serious soul searching of the British people, particularly its political class.
Neither result is going to save nor destroy Britain; but it will reveal whether the British public is committed to isolationism, or to the ideals of a unified Europe.
Happy voting Britain, don’t mess it up!
