Polls are open for primaries in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where former President Donald Trump is hoping to wield his infleuence in multiple contests in both states.
Democrats have mostly had a drama-free Senate primary in North Carolina, as Jeff Jackson, a fresh-faced state senator, chose to drop out as he faced a deficit running against Cheri Beasley, the first Black woman chief justice on the state's supreme court and instead run for a House seat. But Democrats are more split in Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman is hoping to win a Democratic Senate nomination after announcing recently that he suffered a stroke.
Here's what to watch in tonight's races.
Is a Trump endorsement an elixir for Dr Oz?
The former president left many conservatives shocked and dismayed when he endorsed Dr Mehmet Oz, the former daytime talk show host. Nonetheless, Dr Oz seems to have benefited from the endorsement, and a new poll from Emerson college released this week shows he is now narrowly in the lead with 28 per cent support. Meanwhile, his toughest competitor David McCormick has slipped to third as Kathy Barnette has 24 per cent support. Ms Barnette benefited from a late surge and the conservative Club For Growth has thrown its lot behind her.
Incidentally, the race may come down to how much Dr Oz or Ms Barnette want to fan the flames of the so-called Big Lie. On Monday, Dr Oz was asked whether the 2020 election was stolen or "rigged”, and while he mentioned "issues", he said, "I want to be careful. Republicans are about fixing things." Meanwhile Dasha Burns of NBC News confirmed on Monday that Ms Barnette indeed marched toward the Capitol on January 6 alongside members of the Proud Boys.
Challengers' failure to unite the field
In both North Carolina's 11th District and in Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race, Republicans risk losing winnable races with volatile candidates because of a failure to create a unified opposition. Politico reported last week that Republicans were in full-blown panic mode at the idea that state Senator Doug Mastriano, who was at the Capitol on 6 January but who says he left before the riot took place, could become the nominee. Still, the other two top-tier candidates refused to drop out, which could have allowed supporters to coalesce around a Mastriano alternative.
Their fears were compounded when Mr Trump endorsed Mr Mastriano and the Emerson College poll showed that 34 per cent of very likely Republican primary voters endorsed Mastriano. The same problem goes for North Carolina's 11th District, where beleaguered freshman Representative Madison Cawthorn faces seven primary challengers. That benefits Mr Cawthorn because he only needs to win 30 per cent of the vote to avoid a runoff.
Similarly, Mr Trump came to Mr Cawthorn's defence on Monday, saying that "he made some foolish mistakes, which I don't believe he'll make again" and that voters should "give him a second chance." That likely caused a headache for Republicans who would like to vanquish Mr Cawthorn and fear he tars the rest of the party. Still, the refusal of any of his opponents to get behind one of the others mean they only have themselves to blame.
Just how big will Big John Fetterman's margin be?
At six-feet-nine inches (more than 200cm), the only thing larger than Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is his challenge to win in November. Despite announcing he had a stroke over the weekend, he still looks likely to win the primary.
There have been few polls of the contest, but one from Monmouth University last month showed him decisively leading Representative Conor Lamb and state Representative Malcolm Kenyatta. A super PAC backing Mr Lamb has tried painting Mr Fetterman as too left-wing and others have criticised him for chasing an unarmed Black man with a gun when he was mayor of Braddock.
But these issues seem to have not make as big of a dent in Mr Fetterman's lead as his opponents would like, and Senator Elizabeth Warren even criticised an ad by the super PAC. The big question then is how big Mr Fetterman's lead will be in the primary. If he wins at least a majority in the primary, it's a sign much of the party is willing to coalesce around him, If not, it means many Democrats still have their reservations. As NBC News reported last month, some worry that the gun incident might depress turnout among Black voters, which would desperately be needed, especially given Black voter disappointment in President Joe Biden in recent months.
Trump hopes to banish the 'losers' from his party
One of the peculiar things about Mr Trump's endorsements is that he is often supporting candidates challenging candidates he endorsed in previous elections. In North Carolina, he's endorsed Bo Hines against former Representative Renee Ellmers in North Carolina's 6th District, the first congressional endorsement he made in 2016. But she lost to fellow Representative George Holding in a member-on-member primary that year.
The former president's endorsement came despite the fact Mr Hines doesn't live in the district. In the same respect, while in 2018 Mr Trump endorsed former Representative Lou Barletta, he ultimately lost to Senator Bob Casey Jr. So now, Mr Trump has backed loyalist Mr Mastriano.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Mr Trump endorsed Representative Ted Budd instead of former Governor Pat McCrory, saying last year that "You can’t pick people that have already lost two races and who do not stand for our values." Now, Mr Budd has a whopping 27-point lead against Mr McCrory, according to the latest WGHP/The Hill/Emerson College poll. "Loser" is one of MR Trump's favorite pejoratives to use. So he's clearly committed to make sure that he purges people he sees as unworthy of being in the party he is remaking in his image.
Can Trump's picks win?
It feels kind of silly to even write this because in 2015, people resoundingly answered the question whether Donald Trump could win the presidency with "no" and the question of electability is pretty much a useless term whether a candidate can be elected depends as much on factors they can control as they can't. Of course, any candidate can win any race, especially in a year that is shaping up to be bad for Democrats.
At the same time, many Republicans remember they lost easily winnable seats in the 2010 Tea Party wave year because of candidates who were so far out of the mainstream. In North Carolina, the WGHP/Hill/Emerson College poll showed Mr Budd beating Ms Beasley by seven points. But in Pennsylvania, a state that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and that has a Democratic governor, electing candidates who believe the election was stolen and who went to the Capitol on 6 January when Republicans were making a fuss over the Keystone State's votes might be harder to stomach than an entire Philly cheesesteak.
