Nov. 07--Usually, I have a decent feel for these games.
I'm way off on occasion (see: Evanston over South Elgin), but I usually have an opinion with some semblance of a rationale behind it.
I have no idea what's going to take place on Saturday afternoon when Mount Carmel invades Duchon Field to take on Glenbard West in a Class 7A second-round game that would -- and someday probably will -- make for a great state final.
I almost always give the Hilltoppers the benefit of the doubt because they've earned it with a sustained run of dominance under Chad Hetlet.
Yet Mount Carmel has two state championships to GW's one during Hetlet's tenure, and a 12-2 championship advantage overall.
This doesn't appear to be one of Mount Carmel's dominant teams, and a number of Glenbard West teams have been better defensively.
I have no real insight on the individual matchups that will ultimately decide the matter, but that's not what you're reading the sometimes-weekly picks blog to hear.
I promise opinions, and opinions you will get. This will be a high-scoring game, unless it's low scoring, and it will be won by a convincing or narrow margin by Mount Carmel or Glenbard West. Let's say Glenbard West 28-24.
Here's a look at the other 7A second-round games.
No. 9 Rockford Auburn at No. 8 Reavis: Let's take a step back and chuckle to ourselves at how the 7A seeds panned out. There is a plus side to a system that manages to turn Glenbard West-Mount Carmel into a second-round game. Either the Rockford Auburn or Reavis players get to experience the excitement leading up to a state quarterfinal, and they get to test themselves against one of the state's truly elite programs. Reavis 21-20
No. 4 Batavia at No. 20 Simeon: This is another one I can't really call. I do believe in Batavia, but I also appreciate the difficulty of its task, driving all the way to Gately on a Friday night and knocking off Simeon. Simeon 30-28
No. 12 Benet at No. 5 Cary-Grove: Since its lone loss to undefeated Huntley, Cary-Grove has scored 190 points and allowed 33, and three of its four victims were playoff teams. Benet plays solid defense and is probably better than at least eight of Cary-Grove's opponents, but will the Redwings be up to the task of stopping Cary-Grove's triple option? The Trojans' 28-10 postseason record since 2004 suggests that most aren't. Cary-Grove 28-21
No. 15 Eisenhower at No. 31 Niles North: A 31-seed at home in the second round of the playoffs. Who says this system isn't perfect? It's certainly working for Niles North, a favorite of this blog all season long. The Vikings' offense is really good, and not just by Niles North standards. Quarterfinals, here they come. Niles North 40-35
No. 7 Geneva at No. 23 Bradley-Bourbonnais: Geneva is kind of a quiet 9-1, and I'll admit to sort of writing it off after watching Batavia beat Geneva 24-14 in a game that wasn't really that close. But 9-1 means you've done a lot of things right, and if the competition was for the most part mediocre, it means you're clearly better than mediocre. High praise, indeed. Geneva 34-21
No. 14 Lincoln-Way East at No. 3 Libertyville: As dominant as Libertyville has been, this is by no means a gimme. East's Rob Zvonar is about as good as high school coaches get, and the formula for beating a great team seems to be in place. The Griffins have the ability to lean on their big offensive line and pound the rock with three different backs. There's no reason to think they can shut down Riley Lees because nobody has, but it's hard to see East letting him run wild either. Libertyville 28-21
No. 11 Maine South at No. 6 Normal Community: I keep forgetting that Maine South is in 7A. It doesn't feel right. I'll come around next week when the Hawks are involved in a great quarterfinal matchup with whoever wins the game directly above. Maine South 31-21
Mike Helfgot is a freelance reporter for the Chicago Tribune.
