It’s obviously way early, but the early future odds are out on who’ll win the Heisman. Where’s the good value?
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– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value Heisman Futures Odds Picks Are …
Last February, did you really think Kyler Murray was going to win the 2018 Heisman Trophy? Maybe, but it wasn’t a sure-thing lock that he was going to start over Austin Kendall.
Yeah, Tua Tagovailoa was on the radar, but how about Dwayne Haskins? They came close, and they were amazing, but they didn’t win it.
Did you have Clemson superstar freshman Trevor Lawrence as a possibility? No? I did, but he won a national title – he wasn’t in the Heisman equation.
It’s really, really, really, REALLY hard to win a Heisman. When it comes to the futures odds, for right now, you either you win it, or you don’t.
To win, you almost certainly have to 1) be a statistical superstar 2) quarterback or running back on a 3) Power Five team that’s 4) in the hunt for a national title.
There aren’t any points for second place in this race.
So with that in mind, in February, where’s the best value? Which players make the most sense to invest in?
Here we go …
Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
They’re on the board, but nah. They’re long shots for a reason, and these are hard to justify even just to have a little fun.
WR Rondale Moore, Purdue 33/1
1) He’s a wide receiver. 2) He plays for Purdue. 3) See Parts 1 and 2. Put him on the short list for the All-America honors, but it would take something unbelievable for him to get anything closer than being a fringe candidate to be a Heisman finalist.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama 25/1
Amari Cooper was at least able to get in the Heisman discussion in 2014, but 124 catches for 1,727 yards and 16 scores wasn’t able to get it done. Jeudy is fantastic, but if he goes off, Mr. Tagovailoa will probably have something to do with it.
The Tide have other weapons who’ll take catches away, and Najee Harris and the running backs will be a factor, too. Jeudy isn’t winning the Heisman – no need to mess with it at 25/1.
QB Austin Kendall, West Virginia 25/1
Get ready for the Oklahoma transfer to come up with a huge season in the Mountaineer attack. New head coach Neal Brown will be great, but the offensive numbers won’t be as crazy as they were under Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers will be in the mix for things, but they’re not going to win the Big 12 title.
QB Kelly Bryant, Missouri 25/1
There are just too many good quarterbacks. Bryant should have an amazing season getting to run the loaded Mizzou attack, but will he have the numbers to pull off the Heisman? Can he lead the Tigers to an SEC title? Nah.
NEXT: Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
It’s not going to happen, buuuuuut … you’re not totally wrong if you want to make a massive value call.
QB KJ Costello, Stanford 33/1
Here’s why you like him. To get close, a quarterback like Costello has to be more than the numbers, which should be great. He has to be amazing on the big stages, and September will give him just that. Northwestern, at USC, at UCF, Oregon. Start 4-0, and Stanford will be the story of the first month of the season. At 33/1 he’s a fun throwaway flier pick.
QB JT Daniels, USC 25/1
Okay, okay, Sam Darnold won plenty of big games and wasn’t all that close to actually winning the Heisman. At 25/1, and with the big games against Stanford, Washington, Notre Dame, and Oregon that will register on a national scale. There’s a shot the light goes on in his sophomore season and the offense blows up. Nah, he won’t win it, but his odds will go down if he has a big performance against Stanford.
QB Shea Patterson, Michigan 28/1
What if Michigan just lets it rip? Patterson only threw for 2,600 yards and 22 touchdowns and seven picks, but the returning receiving corps is loaded. If the Wolverines want to change things up and start to air it out more, Patterson has the skills to put up the numbers. Now he has to beat Ohio State and get Michigan to the College Football Playoff. Compared to others on the list, 28/1 isn’t a bad value.
RB Travis Etienne, Clemson 12/1
He’s fabulous. The speedster ran for close to 1,700 yards with 24 scores and averaged over eight yards per carry last season. He came up with two receiving touchdowns, too. However, there’s that Trevor Lawrence guy in the backfield, other backs will get in the rotation, and it’ll be way, way too hard to pull it off to actually win it.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value Heisman Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
Winning a Heisman is never boring. It’s not fun to go with the obvious calls, but if you like one of these guys, then go do your thing.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin 12/1
If he wasn’t close to winning the Heisman when he ran for 2,194 yards and 16 touchdowns, why will he win it this time around? Wisconsin will be better, but the O line loses four starters. At 12/1 he’s not the best of values, but if the Badgers are somehow as strong as they were in 2017, he’ll be in the hunt until the end.
QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma 13/2
He deserved to be in the Heisman conversation in 2016, and he never received enough credit for being a solid passer. He doesn’t have Tua Tagovailoa skills, and he’s not going to be Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray, but can he put up the massive numbers needed? More than that, will Heisman voters want to give to an Oklahoma player three straight times?
QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 7/2
Will the raw numbers be there? If we’re talking about the first pick in the NFL Draft, yeah, he’s right there. But to win the Heisman, can he throw 30 touchdown passes and four picks again? Yeah, maybe, but at 7/2, it’s not worth it to take the chance.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value Heisman Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
Oh yes, you’ll be tempted. But don’t. Just … don’t.
QB Justin Fields, Ohio State 12/1
Dwayne Haskins threw for over 4,800 yards with 50 touchdowns and eight picks as he led the Buckeyes to the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. And he didn’t win the Heisman. Ohio State is loaded and should put up huge numbers, but Buckeye quarterbacks never get enough respect in the Heisman race. Fields should be good, but 12/1 isn’t enough. 25/1 … now we have something to work with.
QB Jake Fromm, Georgia 12/1
The numbers won’t be good enough. He threw for close to 2,800 yards and 30 touchdowns and six picks, but that’s not going to be enough. He might get close if he leads Georgia to the SEC title and a second College Football Playoff run in three years, but the stats aren’t going to be there.
RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia 12/1
See Jake Fromm. Swift will be outstanding, and he should be one of the nation’s most electrifying players, but will he lead the nation in rushing? No. At best, think Saquon Barkley, and the former Penn State star wasn’t able to win the Heisman.
QB Ian Book, Notre Dame 16/1
The Irish lose a slew of the key receivers, and they’re not going 12-0 again. At 16/1, don’t bother.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– The Best Value Heisman Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: The Best Value Heisman Winning Futures Odds Picks Are …
The Best Value Heisman Winning Futures Odds Picks Are …
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama 5/1
5/1 might not seem like the best of values, unless he’s about to win the Heisman. Alabama’s schedule has the nasty SEC West to deal with, but the numbers aren’t going to be any worse, the receiving corps is amazing, and the team should be super-terrific-extra-focused after the way last season ended. And there’s no Jalen Hurts to step in this time, either.
QB Adrian Martinez, Nebraska 12/1
He’s certainly not going to run like Lamar Jackson did. However, just like the former Louisville star was able to shine when the spotlight was on to take over the Heisman narrative early in 2016, it’s possible for Martinez to be just that good, even if the team is just above-average. Now that he knows the offense, he should put up a massive season. At 12/1, though, he’s not the greatest of values.
QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas 16/1
What it Texas goes to the College Football Playoff? Ehlinger will be the team’s signature star, he’ll be vocal, he’ll pound away for the running game, and he’ll be that type of folk hero who could be deep in the Heisman hunt if he really does lead the way to a massive season. At 16/1, he’s a decent value compared to others on the list.
QB Justin Herbert, Oregon 16/1
Star receiver Dillon Mitchell is gone. Other than that, Oregon is loaded with just about everyone else back, and it has the guy who probably would’ve been the first quarterback taken in the 2019 NFL Draft. He’ll need to go off like Marcus Mariota did in his Heisman-winning run in 2014. If he blows up in the season-opener against Auburn and the Ducks win, that 16/1 drops like a rock.
And then there’s …
The Field
It’s sort of tapping out, but when it comes to the craziness of winning the Heisman, there’s occasionally going to be a Cam Newton here, a Johnny Manziel there, and a Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson once in a while. Always, if you have the chance early on in the future process to take The Field … do it.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value Heisman Futures Odds Picks Are …
