Early odds for the 2020 Heisman Trophy are in. Who are the top 15 candidates, and where’s the value?
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However, there are a whole bunch of new names in the mix, several seemingly crazy long shots, and enough question marks to make this very, very interesting for anyone trying to handicap the race so far in advance.
What Heisman-caliber players are you going to need to know several months from now once this all gets started for real?
Keep in mind, this is trying to figure out 1) who the best player will be in the 2020 college football season on the 2) best team who’ll 3) crank up the ridiculous stats at an all-time great level.
The bar has been set higher stat-wise after the last few seasons.
Top top ten on this list are done based on what appears to be the best value – about that, here’s your advanced warning that the No. 1 is a bit quirky, but there’s a reason. 11-15 are done based on the odds according to Covers odds, and before that, the …
2020 Heisman Trophy Early Odds: Best of the Rest
So you want to take a shot for the stars? You’re not totally crazy to shoot for the stars – as will be explained later – but …
QB Charlie Brewer, Baylor 60/1
Baylor comes back loaded with talent, but is Brewer going to be able to stay healthy enough after taking monster shots late last season? He’s a terrific baller, but the ceiling – if everything goes right – is to be a Heisman finalist.
QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State 60/1
Stats. He might quickly grow in the eyes of the NFL scouts, but he’s not going to have the raw numbers or the big Big 12 wins to pull it off.
QB Tyler Shough, Oregon 60/1
Are you really sure he’s going to be the Oregon starting quarterback? He’s a big-time talent, but super-recruit Jay Butterfield will get to take his cuts for the No. 1 gig.
RB Master Teague III, Ohio State 60/1
1) JK Dobbins put up massive numbers and wasn’t remotely close to winning the Heisman. 2) Teague is hurt and going to miss the rest of spring practice. It’s being reported by Eleven Warriors that it could be an Achilles’ heel injury.
RB CJ Verdell, Oregon 60/1
Can he put up the stats to be in the mix? He only ran for 1,220 years and eight touchdowns last season, but he has the talent to blow up.
Now for the players with a real shot at pulling this off. Again, starting with projected candidates No. 15 through 11 based on the Covers odds, and then the top ten based on the best values.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 15. The 40/1 Candidates
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 15. The 40/1 Candidates
QB Sean Clifford, Penn State
He’ll get his opportunities to shine in plenty of big games, but don’t even think about this – even at 40/1 – unless you’re a die-hard Nittany Lion fan looking to have some quirky fun.
QB Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State
It’s an interesting though, but no. Sanders should be a statistical superstar, but the 2,000-yard running back behind him – Chuba Hubbard – will be the star of the Oklahoma State offensive show.
QB Kedon Slovis, USC
You have to get creative to imagine Clifford, Sanders or Trask winning the Heisman. There’s a path, though, for Slovis.
He still has to lock down the starting job – there will be a bit of a battle this offseason – but he crushed it in this offense late last season with four 400-yard games in a five-game stretch to close out the regular season. If he’s amazing and USC somehow pulls off the upset over Alabama to start the season, you’ll be dreaming of Slovis at 40/1.
QB Kyle Trask, Florida
This might be a better value pick than it seems. Someone out there will be dreaming of a Joe Burrow-like jump, and it’s not insane to think Florida could pull a 2019 LSU and take that one step up and be in the national title chase – but 40/1 is about right for a reason.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 14. The 30/1 Candidates
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 14. The 30/1 Candidates
QB Myles Brennan, LSU
Too many of the pieces are gone – and the schedule is too nasty – to ask for lightning to strike twice. Freshmen Max Johnson and TJ Finley will get a look, but no matter who’s under center, the receiving corps to work with will be extraordinary.
QB Sam Howell, North Carolina
He’s a big-time talent who might not have the size, but he’s a player. Winning the Heisman as the North Carolina starting quarterback is too big a hill to climb, but expect a massive season.
QB Bo Nix, Auburn
This might seem preposterous considering Nix didn’t set the world on fire statistically, but he was a true freshman. Auburn will be terrific, Nix was a top recruit last year for a reason, and … nah. Not yet, but if he turns it loose, he could rise up fast.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 13 The 25/1 Candidate
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 13 The 25/1 Candidate
QB Mac Jones, Alabama
This is all about your investment strategy.
The Alabama starting quarterback should be around a 7/1 prospect, but there’s so much uncertainty around Jones.
He’s good, and he’s the odds-on favorite to win the starting job, but Nick Saban hasn’t been afraid to play young quarterbacks – Jalen Hurts started as a freshman – and Taulia Tagovailoa is in place to get his shot.
The real issue for Jones will be super-recruit Bryce Young, who appears to be the next great dual-threat Bama quarterback. Young has the upside and the talent, but Jones will get the first crack.
If this is a rebound year to be back in the national title chase, with the receiving corps returning, 25/1 isn’t a bad play.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 12. The 20/1 Candidates
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 12. The 20/1 Candidates
QB Ian Book, Notre Dame
He’s better than many Notre Dame fans like to give him credit for.
He’s accurate, he’s able to keep the chains moving, and occasionally he’s able to pull a rabbit out of his hat like he did against Virginia Tech. If the team can use the first month to get the passing game going, he’ll have his moments to shine against Wisconsin in Lambeau Field, in South Bend against Clemson, and at USC.
RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
It was a stunner when he chose to return for his senior year, but with his flash, his experience, and his skills, he’ll come up with plenty of Heisman highlight reel moments.
The problem – even at 20/1 – is that he’s not the star. This is Trevor Lawrence’s offense, and even though he should put up big stats and have a great year, but it’s really, really hard to win this thing as a running back.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 11. The 14/1 Candidate
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: No. 11. The 14/1 Candidate
QB Jamie Newman, Georgia
It’s going to be interesting to see how this works.
Jake Fromm was never remotely close to being in the Heisman race, but he wasn’t 6-4 and 230 pounds like Jamie Newman.
The transfer from Wake Forest threw for almost 3,000 yards last year with 26 touchdowns, but does he have the talent to rise up at a place whose last three quarterbacks – at least as options – were Fromm, Justin Fields, and Jacob Eason?
But will it really be Newman under center? There’s a chance the main man might be D’Wan Mathis, now that he’s been cleared after suffering a brain cyst.
It’ll be a fight, and the winner this offseason is about right at 14/1.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 10
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 10
QB Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma 12/1
Can Oklahoma really make it three Heisman winners in four years?
The crazy part about this unbelievable string of success was that Jalen Hurts might have had a better year than Kyler Murray did in 2018 and Baker Mayfield came up with in 2017, and didn’t win.
But Hurts was special. Mayfield was special. Murray was special.
We still don’t quite know yet if Rattler is special.
He’s supposed to be. Unlike the last three OU starting quarterbacks, Rattler started his career in Norman and didn’t come in as a transfer.
There aren’t any superstar transfers out there like another Hurts, but there’s one big issue at 12/1 – Tanner Mordecai might be good enough to win the job.
However, the line is 12/1 because Rattler hasn’t taken over one of the best positions in all of sports – it’l go down to 5/1 if and when he does.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 9
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 9
QB D’Eriq King, Miami 30/1
You don’t play college fantasy football, but if you did, Houston QB D’Eriq King went first in your league, or was selected in the top five no matter what the format.
That didn’t work out so well.
Miami QB D’Eriq King should do a whole lot better.
The electrifying playmaker threw for almost 3,000 yards with 36 touchdowns and six picks in 2018, and he ran for 674 yards and 14 scores.
But the Cougars stumbled out of the gate in 2019, King decided to sit out the season to preserve his eligibility, and now it’ll be his job to be the savior of a woeful Miami offense.
There’s a whole lot of work to do – he has to lock down the starting quarterback job, first – but if the 2018 King shows up in Coral Gables , 30/1 might be a nice call.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 8
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 8
RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State 20/1
It would be nice if you could get better odds than 20/1, but it’s still enough value to give Hubbard a thought for the Heisman.
However, this is no longer a running back award unless he’s leading a team to the national championship.
Only three running backs have won the Heisman since 1999, when Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne became college football’s all-time leading rusher.
Reggie Bush in 2005 – and yes, he did win it – on a team that played for the national title.
Mark Ingram won in 2009 for a national championship Alabama team, and Derrick Henry won in 2015 for another Tide title squad.
Oklahoma State isn’t going to win the national championship.
Hubbard is brilliant – he ran for 2,094 yards and 21 scores – and he should be a 2,000-yard runner again if he can stay healthy, but as post-Dayne Badger backs can attest to, there’s a hard Heisman ceiling no matter what the stats are.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 7
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 7
QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M 50/1
You want to do this? You want your Think Outside The Box candidate to get behind?
How about a veteran quarterback on a team that has a ton of pressure on its shoulders to produce – not to mention its head coach that needs to step it up – with an offense that might just start to open it up a bit.
Mond will have the receivers to work with, he’ll have the talent around him to thrive, and he’ll have plenty of big-game moments to shine.
Remember, we’re talking about a 50/1 guy here.
Mond might have had an underwhelming season, but he picked it up in the bowl win over Oklahoma State with 117 rushing yards and a score to carry the team to the win.
He has a more-than-manageable first half slate to work with, and then come his moments with a trip to Auburn, a date at Alabama, and LSU over the second half of the season.
If LSU could turn the corner last year, can A&M be that team? Again, at 50/1, it’s the shot for the stars.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 6
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 6
QB Adrian Martinez, Nebraska 30/1
Nebraska’s offense is going to start to work under Scott Frost? The team will start to win close games and not keep screwing up?
Adrian Martinez will be the quarterback who made every Husker quarterback fired up once he signed on?
We’ve all been waiting a long, long time for this Nebraska slot machine to start paying off.
It’s Year Three, and Martinez is supposed to be the leader and star of a high-powered Nebraska attack now that he knows what he’s doing.
This isn’t going to be a special Husker team right way, but 1) it’ll have time to build, and 2) that might not be a bad thing. A mediocre defense means the offense has to keep on pressing.
The schedule is relatively light and fluffy until Halloween. If Martinez can crank up the stats, and if Nebraska can become a thing – sort of like Minnesota was last year – the table will be set with at Ohio State, Penn State, at Iowa, at Wisconsin giving him opportunities to be special.
At 30/1, if this Nebraska thing starts to work, Martinez will have the stats.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 5
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 5
RB Najee Harris, Alabama 40/1
In 2015, Derrick Henry kicked off his Heisman-winning season with a 147-yard, three-touchdown day on just 13 carries in a win over Wisconsin.
In 2009, Mark Ingram started his run for the Heisman with 150 yards and a score in a workhorse win over Virginia Tech.
Harris will get his shot to open up with something massive with the opener against USC in Arlington.
The Crimson Tide have to play Georgia a few weeks later, and a road game at LSU along with Texas A&M and Auburn to close out the regular season will matter, but that’s a positive for the Heisman chase.
If you’re the Alabama running back, you don’t have to run for 2,000 yards – even though Henry did – to take the Heisman. You have to be the star, and the reason the team marches to a possible national championship.
Harris is a one-time super-recruit who wasn’t a disappointment, but hadn’t quite played up to his potential. That all changed late in the year, and now, look out.
At a 40/1 value, yeah … look out.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 4
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 4
QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 4/1
Lawrence might be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and he’s going to be the superstar of superstars on all the All-America lists, but will the stats be there?
Will he be given any credit for rocking and rolling against what should be double-digit inferior competition – at least for 11 of the 12 games?
He’s so good and Clemson will be so fantastic that Lawrence will be the early leaderboard to win the Heisman.
At 4/1 the value isn’t all that bad especially because of one game in early November, but will that be enough?
If Notre Dame is fantastic, and if Lawrence leaves South Bend with a win after a brilliant performance, then yeah, he’s going to be right there in the final mix.
Compared to the other top quarterback candidates, will the overall statistics be there to actually win the Heisman? Will he end up splitting the Heisman attention with RB Travis Etienne?
At the very least, he’s not a huge call, and again, the value isn’t all that bad.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 3
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 3
QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas 14/1
It’s a theme among the guys at or near the top of this list – is there one chance to come up with a signature moment that changes everything?
Joe Burrow didn’t win the 2019 Heisman by rocking Texas in Austin, but he certainly set the tone. Then, when he was fantastic in a win at Alabama, he all but locked it up.
At 14/1, you’re taking the big home run cut that Ehlinger can return the favor. If he can be great in a win at LSU on September 12th, he’s going to be a mortal lock to be a Heisman finalist as long as he’s able to keep leading Texas to wins.
If he’s able the star in a victory over Oklahoma, then the Heisman is his for the taking. If Texas wins the Big 12 title and goes to the College Football Playoff, it might be over.
If all of that happens, he’ll have the wins, the big performances, and he should have the stats.
Of course, there’s a reason he’s 14/1 – you’re banking on Texas really and truly being “back” – but this year, he’s a brand name college football star among a slew of relative unknowns.
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 2
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 2
QB Justin Fields, Ohio State 4/1
September 12th at Oregon.
When trying to figure out who the top Heisman candidates really are – especially when it comes to analyzing this several months in advance – check the boxes.
Will Fields have massive stats? Absolutely.
Will he split the Heisman consideration on his own team like he did last year? Not likely.
Does he have the name recognition on a team that’s almost certain to be in the College Football Playoff race? Yup.
And will he have that one shot to take this race and run away with it by himself? If he’s awesome in Eugene in an early September win for the Buckeyes, it’ll be his for the taking.
He’ll still have games at Penn State and Michigan State, and he’ll still have to get by Michigan, but at 4/1, he’s the safest pick on the board, except for …
NEXT: 2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 1
2020 Early Heisman Early Odds: Best Value Candidate No. 1
The Field
Sorry about this, but there’s a serious betting point here without trying to be gimmicky.
If you’re investing a portion of Junior’s college fund on an early Heisman Trophy candidate, you need to know the history of this hardest of awards to win.
Last year was supposed to feature an epic battle between Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence for the Heisman, and neither one was a finalist.
Jonathan Taylor wasn’t a crazy early Heisman call, and neither were Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields once they established themselves as the starters at Oklahoma and Ohio State, respectively, and then the winner was …
Joe Burrow? The guy who hit 58% of his passes in 2018 with 16 touchdown passes? Oh COME ON … no one saw that coming, especially back in March when the early Heisman odds came out.
And that’s the big deal when it comes to these early odds. Remember, these odds are to win the thing and not just become a finalist.
Could a rising superstar quarterback like Micale Cunningham of Louisville become something truly special and captivate the nation like Lamar Jackson was able to do back in 2016?
Really, who’s the Oklahoma starting quarterback going to be?
Really, who’s going to be the starting quarterback at Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon?
Who’s going to be the next Wisconsin running back who flirts with 2,000 yards?
Can K.J. Costello stay healthy enough to put up a bazillion yards in the Mike Leach offense at Mississippi State? And, oh yeah …
Could there be another Joe Burrow?
Considering all of the crazy twists and turns certain to happen over the next several months, if there’s any way you can get The Field, go for it.
