Londoners may be at greater risk in heatwaves due to commuting, the high cost of living, overcrowded homes and the capital’s stark inequality, say health experts.
In most of Britain, risks from high temperatures rise as age groups get older.
But a study by officials from the UK Health Security Agency “identified different patterns in London, where risk was more uniformly distributed across the different age groups,” with Londoners aged 45 to 65 just as vulnerable as pensioners.
They believe it is likely down to a “complex combination of many factors” and listed:
* London’s “unique population profile and complex migratory patterns of movement into and out” of the capital across age groups. Some people may have no option but to travel to work on the Tube, buses or trains in very hot conditions.
* Temperatures are generally higher in London, with the additional heat burden of the “urban heat island effect”, which likely increases exposure due to indoor overheating risk.
* This risk may be further compounded by less capacity for “adaptive behaviours to reduce overheating risk” due to socioeconomic factors “unique to the capital” such as the high cost of living and high rates of household overcrowding, as well as security concerns or the “necessity of income”.
* Inequality in London is far higher than in other regions of the UK, with over a quarter of Londoners living in poverty and over 15% in the top 10% of earners nationally.
The research team concluded: “The potential complexity of contributing factors to heat risk... just demonstrates the difficulty of ensuring any interventions that are deployed are both adequately targeted and equitable.”
Given all the factors it was also difficult to draw firm conclusion from the data.
The study highlighted the unique risks in London as the capital and other parts of England were in the grip of a heatwave dome “furnace”.
England’s Chief Medical Officer Professor Sir Chris Whitty stressed that a red heat-health alert has been issued with temperatures in London set to hit 34C on Tuesday, 39C on Wednesday, 34C on Thursday and 33C on Friday, according to BBC Weather,
Sir Chris posted on X: “Extreme heat can be dangerous for young children, elderly and vulnerable people. Rehydrating and cooling can be life saving.”
Dozens of schools in the country have been forced to close and transport bosses have warned people against all but essential travel amid the rare red warnings over extreme temperatures that are expected to hit record highs for June.
A “heat-dome” settling over western Europe could bring temperatures of up to 40C in some parts of England and Wales in the middle part of the week, the Met Office has said.
Temperatures for the latest heatwave are likely to overtake the June record set in Hampshire in 1976 by several degrees and could come close to the UK’s all-time high of 40.3C which was measured in July 2022.
After the record temperatures of the May, Sir Sadiq Khan’s officials recently outlined the overall finding of the heatwave study to an inquiry by the London Assembly’s Planning and Regeneration Committee called “London is overheating – are our homes ready for rising temperatures?”
They stressed: “Most heat-related excess deaths in England are in those aged 65+ years.
“Whilst heat risk is strongly correlated with older age, there is evidence that younger adults in London have a disproportionate level of risk, with Londoners aged 45-65 years having the same risk of dying during hot weather as those aged 65+ years.”
There are two forms of heat risk, each with different mechanisms, affecting different populations and routes for interventions.
* Classic heat stroke is by far the most common cause of heat-related premature mortality and ill-health, they said. Classic heat stroke is where the body is unable to regulate the response to heat, even without significant physical activity, and is primarily associated with older age and existing physical and mental health conditions.
* Exertional heat risk occurs when internal heat production from physical activity overwhelms the body’s cooling capacity, particularly in hot or humid conditions. It can occur even in younger, otherwise healthy people.
The committee is probing how overheating impacts on Londoners, why some homes are more vulnerable than others, and if current planning rules and building standards are keeping pace with global warming.
