As the Detroit Lions head towards the 2019 regular season, their salary cap sits at a very comfortable $23 million plus in available spending capital. They have the freedom to make, or not make, roster moves at their leisure, but based on how general manager Bob Quinn has operated in the past, roster moves are enviable.
During training camp, Quinn will likely not be content to stand pat. He is constantly watching the waiver wire, churning over the last few spots on the 90-man roster looking for undiscovered talent, and reaching agreements with core players in the final year of their contracts — like Graham Glasgow, whose contract extension I recently projected the structure for.
The Lions have the potential to cut any player on their roster regardless of their contractual penalty but there are 12 contracts that — unless something drastic happens — should guarantee those players a spot on the 53-man roster.
The reason these 12 contracts would be extreme cuts is that the guaranteed money left on their deals is greater than the current cap hit — meaning the Lions would actually have to pay more money to release the player rather than keep them on the roster.
Let’s take a closer at which players have these contracts and what it would cost the team to move on from them.
No. 9
Matthew Stafford has the largest contract on the Lions roster accounting for $29,500,000 against the Lions 2019 salary cap, with a total of $55,000,000 in guaranteed money remaining on his deal (which extends through the 2022 season). The chart below from Over The Cap breaks down the details:
If the Lions cut Stafford they would be immediately responsible for the entire $55,000,000 instead of the $29,500,000 he is currently scheduled to make. That means the Lions would be paying an additional $25,500,000 above his 2019 contract to remove him from the roster.
The remaining 11 player contracts have similar contract designs.
Recent core player extensions
Last training camp, Quandre Diggs was one of the core players Quinn targeted for an extension and the two sides worked out a deal extending through the 2021 season with $7,500,000 in fully guaranteed money.
Because of the structure of the contract, Diggs still has $7,432,000 remaining in guaranteed money yet only has a current cap hit of $5,982,000, meaning the Lions would have to pay $1,450,000 above his current cap hit if they removed him from the roster.
Recent free agent additions
This same contractual logic applies to this year’s top free agent targets who all have much more guaranteed money than what their current cap is. Trey Flowers would cost the Lions an additional $43,581,000 above his current cap hit, with Justin Coleman checking in at $13,116,000 and Jesse James at $8,216,000.
Rookie contracts
Top rookies also get deals that give them guarantees that allow them time to acclimate to the NFL. The current collective bargaining agreement lays out a contract structure where if a player is selected in the first-round, their guaranteed money exceeds their cap hit over the first three years, giving the team incentive to keep them on the roster.
The Lions 2017 first-round pick Jarrad Davis still has enough guaranteed money that he would cost the Lions $3,490,270 above his current cap hit if they cut him. 2018 first-round pick Frank Ragnow would cost the Lions an additional $6,960,991 if they moved on, while 2019’s T.J. Hockenson has $16,219,367 in guarantees above his cap number.
A second-round pick’s guaranteed money exceeds their cap hit over the first two years of their contract. That means 2017 second-round pick Teez Tabor has already received all of his guaranteed money and is vulnerable to be cut, while 2018’s Kerryon Johnson still has $1,404,980 in guaranteed money above his cap hit and 2019’s Jahlani Tavai has $3,083,709 in guarantees above his current cost.
Third-round picks get enough guarantees to keep them on the roster for one season. That means, in theory, Kenny Golladay and Tracy Walker could be vulnerable, but 2019’s third-round pick Will Harris should feel somewhat safe with $219,183 in guaranteed money above his cap hit.
Occasionally a high fourth-round will have a contract that matches these contractual parameters, which is the case with Austin Bryant this year. His guaranteed money is $54,474 above his current cap hit, but that is such a small number that it would likely not influence the Lions from making a decision on his roster status.
The Outlier
Romeo Okwara is the only player on the Lions roster who has this style of contract and is not on a rookie deal or an established veteran in a starting role.
Okwara’s $1,636,147 in guaranteed money above his cap hit speaks to how much the team values his play and eludes to the fact that he will have a significant role in 2019, despite (presumably) losing his starting position to Flowers.
He’s not getting a lot of hype right now, but don’t sleep on Okwara this season as his skill set will allow coaches to move him all around the field. In training camp, look for Okwara to continue to rush the passer with his hand in the dirt like last season, but don’t be surprised to see him rush the passer from a standing JACK linebacker-type position, which would also allow him to occasionally drop into coverage.
When looking at the Lions roster construction, you can mark Okwara — and the other 11 mentioned — in pen on your 53-man roster predictions.
