Hawaii vs. Boise State: Game Preview, Kick Time, Livestream, Odds, Prediction
A big time Mountain West game this week.
Contact/Follow @MWCwire
Two Former WAC Rivals Face Off in a Potential Mountain West Conference Championship Preview
The Hawaii Warriors are headed to the Blue Turf to battle with the Boise State Broncos. These two teams have some history when they faced off in the old Western Athletic Conference and now find themselves atop of their respective divisions in the Mountain West Conference.
The Warriors and Broncos played every year from 2001 to 2010 when they were in the WAC but now face each other only twice every four years as cross-division opponents. Boise State will head to the Islands in 2020. For now, the 4-1 Hawaii Warriors will like to prove that they are one of the elites in the conference this season while Boise State wants to reassert themselves as the ultimate top dog in the Mountain West.
Date: October 12, 2019
Where: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID
When: 8:15 PM Mountain Time, 5:15 PM Hawaii Standard Time
Spread: Boise State -12.5
ESPN FPI Win Predictor: Boise State is given a 79% win probability
Weather: 62˚ high/37˚ low, partly cloudy with no chance of rain. Sunset is 7:06 PM local time
How to Watch: ESPN2
Head to Head Wins: Boise 12 wins, Hawaii 3 wins
Previous Meeting: #24 Boise State 52, Hawaii 16 on November 11, 2016 in Honolulu, HI
WAC Conference Title: Hawaii 4, Boise State 8
MWC Conference Titles: Hawaii 0, Boise State 3
Hawaii Season Rewind
Brandon: Although the Rainbow Warriors came up with two victories against PAC 12 opponents, the highlight of the season so far was their previous game against Nevada with a 54-3 drubbing of the Wolfpack. The ‘Bows offense finally showed what they are capable of doing and it seems with Cole McDonald’s confidence and him being in sync with his receivers will be hard for opposing defenses to find a way to contain this high octane run and shoot squad. The only way the offense can sputter is by turnovers as shown in their lone loss at Washington.
The first half of that game proved UH’s offense can be their own worst enemy by throwing errant interceptions and fumbling in their own territory. But after halftime Hawaii finally got on the same page and scored twice against Washington’s first-team defense which gave some confidence to the team in an already decided game. With several stellar defensive teams in Boise State and San Diego State coming up, Hawaii hopes their offense keeps trending upward as it is fun to watch even if you’re not a Hawaii fan.
Raja: So, my thoughts before the year was that Hawaii was not going to be bowl eligible, that they had too tough of a season and the defense the Warriors had was trash. I was wrong. The Warriors have shown moxie and toughness under Coach Rolovich and the offense can put up points… but I still don’t know if the Warriors are good?
‘Superstar’ Hawaii QB Cole McDonald seems to be benched for being reckless just as often as he goes supernova and tosses for several hundreds of yards. Also, me acknowledging that Hawaii’s defense is not trash does not mean the Warrior defense is necessarily very good. Folks they look like a good team, but I am still not sure if the Warriors are an elite team at the level of Boise State or not.
Boise State Season Rewind
Raja: The Broncos are undefeated; the conversation starts there and should end there. Yes, the Broncos have not been perfect and have shown signs of weakness, but the team looks very solid from top to bottom. One of the biggest question marks entering this year was how the team would deal with the loss of a four-time All-Conference quarterback but Hurricane Hank Bachmeier has put that worry to bed with 1489 yards on 166 passes with a 64% completion rate and eight touchdowns against three interceptions. Another question mark was how Curtis Weaver and a younger defense would step up.
That also has been resoundingly answered with solid play at all 3 levels. Florida State, Marshall, Portland State, Air Force, and UNLV are all defeated, and we have seen the Broncos put together magical years in the past and this season is starting to have that special kind of feel… but Hawaii is that above-average conference opponent trap game that has caught us in the past. The Broncos cannot look past this one.
Brandon: While Hawaii and the other MW opponents should admire and respect what the Broncos has built in dominance over the past two decades, I can see this year as a time when Hawaii has the best chance to beat an undefeated but vulnerable Boise State team on the road. It seems their offensive line is still struggling and while Hank Bachmeier seems polished at times he has his share of “what the…” moments. The Broncos defense is definitely the backbone of their success this year but the Broncos have not seen a passing attack like Hawaii yet. This game might show some weaknesses in the secondary for UH to exploit for future Bronco foes like San Jose State and Utah State.
Greatest Moment in Rivalry
There was a time back in the early 2000s when these two schools were big rivals. Between 2002 and 2010 every single WAC Football Conference Championship was won (directly or split with Nevada) between these two squads. Here is the greatest moment in the rivalry from the Warrior and Bronco perspective:
Brandon: It hasn’t been much of a rivalry but the greatest Hawaii moment to me was in 2007 when Boise State’s Jeremy Avery got blown up by Hawaii’s Blaze Soares in the 3rd quarter to show Hawaii’s defense was no cupcake and stopped Boise from winning a six straight WAC title.
Raja: I’ll take it back to 2003 when Boise State got their first win on the Islands with a 28-17 victory. This was the last game of the season and head coach Dan Hawkins wrapped up the regular season with a 12-1 record including an 8-0 conference record and another WAC title. While the Broncos had a few good seasons already under their belt at this point, the Bronco Machine we know now was getting stronger and stronger. Boise State finished the year 13-1 after a bowl victory against TCU and finished the year ranked 16th in the AP Poll.
Biggest Villain in Rival
In all rivalries, they are always villains. Here is a look into the individual from Boise State and Hawaii that was most loathed from the opposing sideline:
Brandon: It was more of being bullies than villains but the 69-3 beat down in 2004 was the worst game Hawaii played on the road possibly ever. One of Boise State’s great quarterbacks Jared Zabransky used his legs to score four touchdowns and on the other end Hawaii’s great QB Timmy Chang threw four interceptions and was 14 yards short of breaking then BYU Ty Detmer’s career passing yardage record while Boise’s faithful chanted “Timmy! Timmy!” as he threw his last incomplete pass on fourth and one.
Raja: Colt Brennan, he was good… The Broncos were able to beat Brennan in both 2004 and 2005 but it is hard to fault the Hawaii gunslinger who threw for 814 yards with 9 touchdowns against 3 interceptions in those two games. Brennan somehow took it to another level to get a win his senior year in 2006 when he went off for 495 yards on a 76% completion rate with 5 touchdowns against 2 interceptions to snap a 6 game Bronco winning streak. It is nice having the 2 to 1 victory advantage on him, but Colt Brennan was a true terror on the field.
Rankings
Boise State moved up to the 14th spot in both the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll. Hawaii is receiving votes in the Coaches Poll at the moment but not in the AP. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings have the Broncos as the 25th best team in college football and the Warriors find themselves at 69th.
Mountain Division Week 7 Games
Colorado State (-4.5) at New Mexico
Friday at 5 PM MST, CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Projection: Colorado State 53% win probability
Both the Rams and Lobos are desperately trying to fight their way out of the Mountain West basement and salvage a season which may be lost with a loss this week.
San Jose State at Nevada (1.5)
Saturday at 1 PM PST, ESPN3
ESPN FPI Projection: San Jose State 58% win probability
Are the Wolfpack or Spartans good? We really do not know yet but both teams have showed signs that they may be a difference-maker this year in the MWC. This will be a good test for both squads.
UNLV at Vanderbilt (-14.5)
Saturday at 4 PM EST, SEC Network
ESPN FPI Projection: Vanderbilt 88% win probability
UNLV is not very good, but we have seen seemingly not very good teams from the Mountain West pull off some stunning upsets against the Power 5 this year. This one is unlikely to go the Rebels way, however.
Fresno State at Air Force (-3)
Saturday at 5 PM MST, CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Projection: Air Force 61% win probability
Fresno State should be a good team however the reigning Mountain West Champs have not done too much to impress so far this year. Beating Air Force will be a step in the right direction. The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off a tough loss to rival Navy and beating Fresno State will help them put that loss in the rearview mirror.
Wyoming at San Diego State (-3.5)
Saturday at 7:30 PM PST, CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Projection: San Diego State 59% win probability
If Hawaii versus Boise State is the best game in the conference this week, the Cowboys versus the Aztecs are a close second. Both teams are 4-1 and have a win against a Power 5 team under their belt and Wyoming and San Diego State are nipping at the heels of the Broncos and Warriors.
Predictions
(prediction from Brandon and Raja can be found at the bottom of this article)
Jeremy Mauss (Mountain West Wire Manager): Boise State 35, Hawaii 24
Matt Kenerly (Mountain West Wire Editor): Boise State 45, Hawaii 30
Erik Smiley (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 38, Hawaii 31
Collin Clovis (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 31, Hawaii 13
Preston Baker (Mountain West wire Hawaii Contributor): Boise State 31, Hawaii 24
Warriors Offense Update and Notables (written by Brandon)
All five games so far this season have shown flashes of what a well-oiled run and shoot offense can produce. The offense showed they can do it in all four quarters against Nevada. Can they continue that against a talented Boise State defense.
1) Cole McDonald, Junior Quarterback
The Rainbow Warrior can certainly spin it and has thrown for 1,629 yards and 17 touchdowns. But McDonald can also throw it to defenders this year and has nine interceptions. That is one less then he threw all last season.
2) Cedrick Byrd, Senior Wide Receiver
It has been a season to remember so far for Byrd who is tied for second in the FBS with 9 touchdowns. His speed will test any secondary and double covering him can give his teammates more targets for scoring.
3) Miles Reed, Sophomore Running Back
Nicknamed “Bam Bam”, Reed can certainly boom his way for extra yardage especially in the red zone. Look for the Corona, CA native to keep Hawaii’s running game in high gear from delayed handoffs while also protecting McDonald from blocking blitzes.
Bronco Offense Update and Notables (written by Raja)
The Bronco offense has flipped the narrative from earlier in the year when they moved the ball well but could not find a way to get the ball in from the Red Zone. Boise State has scored from the Red Zone now on their last 7 trips there while still moving the ball well.
1) Hank Bachmeier, Freshman Quarterback
Bachmeier had 299 yards on a 63% completion rate with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions and that news is no longer shattering the internet in Idaho which shows that the true freshman has proven he is counted on to be a regular playmaker. Bachmeier is very good and it seems that the young quarterback and the offensive line have figured each other out during the bye week and Bachmeier operated with a clean pocket for most of the matchup last week. Boise State will need Bachmeier to make plays while not turning the ball over against the much tougher Warriors.
2) Robert Mahone, Junior Running Back
Mahone had tough game versus UNLV and only delivered 13 yards on 9 carries. Mahone also had a fumble and spent most of the night afterward watching true freshman George Holani take the majority of carries who went on to rack up 80 yards. Hawaii is not UNLV however and the Broncos will need the veteran Mahone to grind away yards and keep the ball in Boise State’s hands. Mahone is a tough young man and has answered the bell whenever he has been challenged, he will be needed in this game.
3) John Hightower, Senior Wide Receiver
We know Hawaii will look for the deep shot from Cole McDonald to Cedrick Byrd in this game but the Broncos have the ability to fight that fire with some heat of their own. Enter John Hightower who has 362 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns for the year. Hightower is the Broncos homerun threat and he showed off that ability when he reeled in a 76-yard touchdown grab versus Hawaii.
Hawaii Defense Update and Notables (written by Brandon)
While most true Hawaii fans love seeing points put up on the board, they cheer louder when they see stops by a hard-hitting defensive team. It looks like defensive coordinator Corey Batoon has worked hard on bringing back what Hawaii’s defense was known for back in the 2000s by flying to the ball and making sure the opposing offense feels the pain after the game.
1) Jeremiah Pritchard, Junior Linebacker
While Pritchard’s stats don’t show his value to the ‘Bows defense, his presence gave them the much needed juice to stop and shut down Nevada’s running game. Pritchard is coming back from injury so look for Pritchard to add more to his stats this week.
2) Khoury Bethley, Sophomore Safety
You will hear more of his name on TV Saturday night by being on demand for containing the tight ends and running backs from the dump passes. Bethley has speed and can match up with receivers if needed from the line of scrimmage.
Broncos Defense Update and Notables (written by Raja)
The Boise State defense has been good this year folks, real good. Boise State is ranked 25th in yards allowed per game and 16th in points allowed per game in the county. The Broncos have been especially lights out in the second half as they have routinely made adjustments at halftime and shut down whatever momentum their opponent may have had in the first half. The Bronco defense has 6 turnovers for the year led by Kekoa Nawahine’s 2 interceptions. Nawahine is an All-Conference safety and he will get a boost as DeAndre Pierce, a former All-Conference safety himself, returns to field after suffering a lower body injury in the season opener.
1) Sonatane Lui, Senior Defensive Tackle
The big man in the middle is second on the team with 29 tackles. Lui has also contributed 4 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks this year. The Hawaii offense is explosive and if the Bronco front four can get pressure on the quarterback, it will allow Boise State to drop additional personal into coverage. Lui is a senior and a fan favorite and will love to have a signature game in this matchup.
2) Curtis Weaver, Junior Defensive End
Speaking of getting pressure on the Warrior quarterback, Lui will be assisted by the very best in this department. When Curtis Weaver is called the best at racking up sacks, this is not an exaggeration as Weaver is the current active FBS leader in sacks and broke the all-time Mountain West Conference record for sacks last week vs UNLV. He accomplished this midway through his junior year. Weaver is the most talented Bronco on the roster and will likely head to the NFL at the end of this year’s campaign.
3) Jalen Walker, Junior Cornerback
The mercurial cornerback brings energy to the field and has developed into a solid player for the Boise State defense. Sometimes that energy gets the best of him as Walker drew multiple penalties last week versus UNLV. Walker has elevated his play this year and the Broncos will need Walker to bring his A+ game versus the pass happy Warriors, this week and stay disciplined.
What to Watch for from the Warriors (written by Brandon)
1) In my previous previews, and it may sound like a broken record, but in order for Hawaii to have a chance of beating Boise State the offense must score early and often. If UH can continue to play like they did at Nevada it could be a shootout on Saturday night.
2) Boise State’s signal-caller has been beaten and battered but no matter what the case is he continues to stand up and sometimes gets even better in his play. If Hawaii wants to limit Boise State’s offense, they will need to wear out Bachmeier and keep him on his back or he will torch the defense all night long.
What to Watch for from the Broncos (written by Raja)
1) Do not turn the ball over. Hawaii’s offensive cannot whip the ball around the field if they do not have the ball. Boise State is the more talented team and they are at home, the best way to come out of this matchup without a loss is to not make any major mistakes that the Warriors can take advantage of.
2) Stay disciplined on both sides of the ball. Similar to the ‘no turnover strategy’, if Boise State stays disciplined and keeps to their assignment, they should be able to win this game. Boise State racked up an insane 130 yards in penalties versus UNLV but you can do that against the Rebels and still walk away with a 25 point victory. That will not be the case against Hawaii. The Warriors will land some big plays with their offense, the Broncos must dust it off and line back up on the next play.
Prediction
Brandon’s prediction: This seems like it could be a precursor to the Mountain West title game, but it all depends on if Hawaii can produce points in a place they have not scored 30 or more since 2006 where Hawaii fell short 41-34. I suspect a similar outcome and hope the Rainbow Warriors can finish the season strong to set up the rematch in December.
Boise State 35, Hawaii 28
Raja’s prediction: Folks, Hawaii is going to get some big scores and long third down conversions which are going to be frustrating for the football team and the Bronco Faithful in Albertson’s stadium for Homecoming this Saturday. My advice is to not sweat it and keep playing and keep cheering. This is going to be a tougher matchup than usual, but Boise State is the better team in terms of talent and coaching and the Broncos defense will get enough stops to win this one.
Look for DeAndre Pierce’s return to give an added boost to an already powerful defense. I suspect that Boise State has enough firepower to keep up in a shootout with the dangerous Hawaii offense but we will not see that on Saturday. Boise’s State’s defense will be the difference maker and Boise State will win and move to 6-0 for the year.
Boise State 41, Hawaii 24
