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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Matthew Weaver

Poll suggests voters back Theresa May U-turn - as it happened

‘Another one!?’: UK reacts to May’s election announcement

Guardian political correspondent Peter Walker has this on former prime minister Tony Blair’s reaction to the election announcement:

Theresa May has decided on a snap general election because she wants to secure a big parliamentary majority before the full consequences of Brexit become obvious to voters, Tony Blair has argued.

The former Labour prime minister said many voters could change their minds on Britain leaving the EU once the various options for Brexit became more real, and the purpose of a general election on 8 June was “to close this possibility down”.

In an article posted on the website of his political foundation, Blair said voters should be aware of the risks of a significant Conservative majority and be prepared to vote across party lines to tackle the “unprecedented and dangerous” political situation.

He insisted that this did not mean he was calling for wholesale tactical voting, or for a so-called progressive alliance.

Instead, Blair wrote:

I am urging that, as part of this election campaign, we create the capacity for the people to know exactly what the choices are; and elect as many MPs as possible with an open mind on this issue who are prepared to vote according to the quality of the deal and the interests of the British people.

Updated

This is from my colleague Rowena Mason on Labour’s plan to select candidates:

Senior figures have agreed that sitting MPs should be automatically reselected as candidates, averting a potential war between supporters of Jeremy Corbyn and the parliamentary party in the run-up to the general election.

Officers of the party are understood to have unanimously made the recommendation after deciding without a vote that it was impractical to make MPs undergo trigger ballots– a process where local party branches have to approve candidates.

They came to the view during talks about how candidates should be selected in 650 seats across the country. However, the final decision will be taken by the party’s ruling national executive committee (at an emergency meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

Corbyn’s office had no comment on a Huffington Post report that he was initially opposed to the idea of automatic reselection of MPs, many of whom have been vocal critics of his leadership.

The alternative would have been to require sitting Labour MPs to be approved by a majority of local party members – and if they were defeated to open up the contest to more candidates, a time consuming process at a point when an election had been called.

But Corbyn is likely to be pressed about whether he backed the idea and whether he endorses every sitting Labour MP at a meeting of the parliamentary party at 7.30pm on Tuesday.

At the meeting, several Labour MPs are also likely to urge Corbyn to reconsider his backing for an early general election, with some calling for the party to abstain and force May to call a vote of no confidence in her own government.

Updated

Afternoon summary

  • Theresa May has stunned her colleagues, commentators and the country by announcing that there will be a general election on 8 June. This means the public will be asked to take part in a major poll less than a year after the EU referendum. The next seven weeks will allow May, who became prime minister without winning an election and whose premiership until now has been dominated by Brexit, to set out in full her vision for the domestic policy. The campaign and the result are likely to have far-reaching consequences not just for government policy over the next five years, but for Brexit, for the Labour party and for the union with Scotland too.

Elections and democracy are about public debate. So it’s rather strange that only a couple of hours after calling for a general election, the prime minister is saying she’s not going to take part in TV debates.

I say to Theresa May, who said this election was about leadership: come on and show some. Let’s have the debates. It’s what democracy needs and what the British people deserve.

  • A Guardian/ICM poll suggests that that a majority of voters think May is right to execute a U-turn and call a general election. It also gives the Conservatives a 21-point lead. (See 4.56pm.)

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn gave a short election speech this afternoon in Birmingham, where he was attending an event to promote Labour’s pledge to increase the carer’s allowance by £10. He said:

In 50 days the country will go to the polls.

We will set our our vision and our policies as we’ve been doing over the past couple of weeks.

This is what Labour has always done - we founded the NHS, we created the social security safety net, we created the Open University, we developed the minimum wage, we’ve done so much on human rights and equality.

A Labour government, elected on June 8, will build on that legacy, will build on that tradition but above all it will ensure that as a society we recognise that those who care always work for the benefit of the whole of society.

Jeremy Corbyn on a visit to the Birmingham Carers Hub this afternoon.
Jeremy Corbyn on a visit to the Birmingham Carers Hub this afternoon. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Updated

Prosecutors are set to announce in the days before the 8 June general election whether a string of Conservative MPs and officials will face charges in relation to allegations of breaching spending limits in the 2015 poll, the Press Association reports.

A Crown Prosecution Service spokesman told PA that the announcement of the snap election would have no impact on the timing of decisions on whether to press charges.

Fourteen police forces have sent files to the CPS and decisions on charges are due in late May and early June.

The precise deadlines for decisions vary from area to area, depending on the date last year on which the local force secured an extension to its investigations into alleged breaches of election finance laws.

Allegations highlighted by Channel 4 News and the Daily Mirror relate to busloads of Conservative activists sent to key seats, whose expenses were reported as part of national campaign spending rather than falling within the lower constituency limits.

The CPS declined to say which constituencies are involved, but said files had been received from the Metropolitan police, as well as forces in Avon and Somerset, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Devon and Cornwall, Gloucestershire, Greater Manchester, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, West Mercia, the West Midlands and West Yorkshire.

Updated

Amber Rudd, the home secretary, told the PM programme earlier that she was first told that there would be an early election today, before this morning’s cabinet.

Theresa May has addressed the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee. As Sky’s Jon Craig reports, she got a standing ovation.

Updated

The FTSE 100 saw its biggest one-day drop since the Brexit vote as the pound surged to a six-month high after Theresa May announced plans for a general election on 8 June, the Press Association reports.

More than £45bn was wiped off the value of the blue chip index as it tumbled 2.4% to end the day at 7,147.5 points, marking its biggest one-day percentage fall since 24 June, when it lost 3.1%.

It was hurt by the strength of the pound, which surged more than 1.5% against the US dollar to trade at $1.27 – hitting its highest level since early October.

Multinational stocks on the FTSE 100 tend to benefit when foreign currencies are stronger.

Versus the euro, sterling rose more than 1% to a four-month high at €1.19.

Investors were digesting surprise news of the snap election, as Downing Street had previously denied plans for a poll before 2020.

Experts have pointed to surveys which suggest the Conservatives will gain a stronger footing after the general election, giving the party a mandate to push forward the Brexit agenda, which could provide more certainty for investors.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, and one of the most effective debaters in the 2015 general election, has challenged the broadcasters to “empty chair” Theresa May if she boycotts debates, as Channel 4 News is reporting. (See 3.51pm.)

The first minister in the last power sharing government in Northern Ireland has described the 8 June general election as a chance for a “vote for the union”.

Arlene Foster, the Democratic Unionist leader, said re-electing her party’s eight MPs would give them a “mandate given to use to ensure the interests of Northern Ireland are to the fore”.

Sinn Féin’s leader in Northern Ireland, Michelle O’Neill, meanwhile, focussed on opposing Brexit as a major plank of her party’s general election campaign.

She said the electoral battle would be an “opportunity for voters to oppose Brexit and reject Tory cuts and austerity”.

Perhaps it is worth here listing the MPs who won parliamentary seats in the last general election.

The DUP hold the largest number of seats: Belfast North and East, North and East Antrim, Strangford, East Londonderry, Lagan Valley and Upper Bann. With the exception perhaps of Belfast North the DUP should retain these seats.

Sinn Féin, of course, boycotts Westminster in line with traditional republican policy. However, it has four seats: Belfast West, Newry and Armagh, Mid Ulster and West Tyrone. The party might make a gain in Fermanagh and South Tyrone but will also be hopeful of taking Belfast South too.

The SDLP holds the Belfast South but its share over the vote in that constituency has been falling over the last two Westminster and assembly elections. The party also will face a Sinn Féin challenge in both Foyle and South Down.

Finally the Ulster Unionists have two seats : Fermanagh and South Tyrone, and South Antrim. A joint DUP-UUP election pact could help unionism defend its seat in the former constituency while giving the DUP a chance to wrestle back Belfast South from the SDLP.

All of these constituency battles are taking place while four big parties in Northern Ireland are supposed to be trying to reach a power-sharing deal in the region. The general election is undoubtedly going to create further division in terms of political and community relations in Northern Ireland, and quite clearly it will make it even more difficult for the parties to secure a power sharing deal in Belfast.

Updated

According to Huffington Post’s Paul Waugh, Jeremy Corbyn wants Labour’s national executive committee to agree that Labour MPs who want to stand again at the election have to go through a “trigger ballot” so that local activists can vote against them if they want an alternative candidate. Others believe MPs should be automatically reselected. As Waugh says in his story, Corbyn’s proposal will trigger a row.

The left of the party has long argued for mandatory reselection contests for all MPs, a move backed last year by the Unite union in a bid to defend Corbyn from his critics within the Parliamentary Labour party (PLP).

One NEC source told HuffPost UK that Corbyn calling for ‘trigger ballots’ to be enforced - with just seven weeks to possible polling day on June 8 - would be “a massive waste of time and energy that should be used talking to actual voters instead”.

“This sounds like pure Unite vindictiveness,” one source said.

However, Corbyn supporters believe that the new party membership, which has doubled since 2015 and powered his two landslide leadership victories, should retain its rights to decide their candidate.

Updated

Angus Robertson, the SNP’s Westminster leader, has told reporters that he was prepared for opponents to pounce on any fall in the number of seats held by the party as a sign of slipping support for the party’s policies on independence.

No doubt they will say that ... I’d just reflect on the fact that more neutral observers are suggesting that in such an outcome, in the circumstances you’re outlining, the SNP, with a clear majority of seats in Scotland would not be undermined.

However, Robertson argued, with Scotland now a “two horse” race between the SNP and the Conservatives, he was hopeful of even gaining on the 56 of 59 Scottish seats won in 2015.

We came very close to winning the three seats we didn’t in 2015, and we will be contesting those seats to win them, and will be contesting every other seat to hold them.

On other matters, Robertson said the party’s national executive would decide what would happen in the seats held by Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson, who won seats for the party in 2015 but have since resigned the party whip.

He also refused to be drawn on what the SNP manifesto might say on whether an independent Scotland should seek to rejoin the EU.

“The policy of the SNP is for Scotland to be a member state of the European Union,” he said, adding: “Issues in relation to the manifesto for the snap general election will become clear when the SNP has written and presented that manifesto.”

Describing the election decision as “a screeching U-turn by the prime minister”, Robertson condemned May for opting out of any TV debates:

They’re running scared from debating Nicola Sturgeon, and I think that’s hugely disappointing.

Tomorrow’s debate on the motion allowing Theresa May to call an early election will just last 90 minutes, according to parliamentary sources. Assuming there are no statements or urgent questions it will start after PMQs at 12.30pm and MPs will vote at 2pm.

Here is are the IMC polling results, with a write-up from ICM’s Martin Boon. And here are the tables (pdf).

Majority of voters think May right to change her mind and call an early election, poll suggests

ICM has carried out a snap poll today (pdf) on the general election announcement. The state of the party figures are very good for the Conservatives, although that is not particularly surprising because other recent polls have produced similar results.

What is potentially more significant is that the poll shows strong support for Theresa May’s decision to call an early election. Voters accept her argument for doing a U-turn on an early election, and do not seem to mind being dragged to the polls only two years after the last general election.

Here are the key figures.

Conservatives: 46% (up 2 from Guardian/ICM over the weekend)

Labour: 25% (down 1)

Lib Dems: 11% (up 1)

Ukip: 8% (down 3)

Greens: 4% (no change)

Conservative lead: 21 points (up 3)

This is the joint highest Conservative lead in Guardian/IMC polling, matching the Tory lead in June 1983. And, at 46%, the Conservative share of the vote is also at its joint highest, matching its figure in the 1992 general election.

  • Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.

People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.

Support: 55%

Oppose: 15%

  • Most voters support an early election, the poll suggests. Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters back the early election in broadly equal numbers (64%, 65% and 60% respectively). Those least supportive are Ukip voters, only 49% of whom back holding an early election.

It was then put to respondents that May used to be adamant that she would not call an early election. They were asked which of these three statements they most agreed with.

The situation has changed, and May is right to change her mind: 54%

Nothing has changed and May is wrong to hold an election: 21%

Don’t know: 25%

  • A majority of voters think May is right to change her mind on an early election.

Respondents were then asked what outcome they expected.

  • About a quarter of respondents said they expected the Conservatives to win a majority of more than 100.

People were asked if they would treat this as a normal general election or as a second Brexit referendum.

Normal general election: 67%

Second Brexit referendum: 17%

There was a question about which team is best able to manage the economy.

Theresa May and Philip Hammond: 51%

Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: 12%

  • May and Philip Hammond have a 39-point lead over Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell on economic competence, the poll suggests.

And finally, there were questions about whether leaders are doing a good or bad job.

May

Good job: 57%

Bad job: 24%

Net score: +33

Corbyn

Good job: 13%

Bad job: 61%

Net score: -48

  • May has a massive lead over Corbyn in terms of general approval ratings.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ online immediately after the announcement that a general election had been called on 18 April 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Updated

Analysts at Deutsche Bank think the election changes the outlook for Brexit, Sky’s Ed Conway says.

The office of Luciana Berger, who had a baby a month ago, has confirmed that the Labour MP for Liverpool Wavertree will contest her seat in the election.

Updated

The Lib Dems claim they have gained 2,500 new members since the general election was called this morning.

David Lidington, the leader of the Commons, has just told MPs that there is no rule saying what should happen in the case of the Manchester Gorton byelection, which was due to take place on 4 May, after the dissolution of parliament, thereby electing an MP to a parliament no longer sitting. It is all up to the discretion of the acting returning officer, he says. But he says he would expect the byelection to be cancelled, as happened when this last occurred in November 1923.

Labour sources have already said it will be cancelled. See 3.03pm.

Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

Don’t expect many press conferences either or extended interviews.

Theresa May is not a huge fan of these sorts of encounters and her team think they open up risks that don’t need to be taken. So the 2017 general election will make the 2015 one look like “access all areas” as far as the Tories are concerned.

I hear the manifesto will probably be a slimmed down affair too. May didn’t think much of the 2015 effort with its 500 or so commitments. One minister said it was a “Christmas tree” of a document and “written without any thought to post-Brexit Britain”. But quite how much shape May wants to put on post-Brexit Britain at this stage is another matter.

Updated

The Guardian will be producing a daily email election briefing. You can sign up for it here.

Commons leader David Lidington says Commons will be dissolved on 2 May

David Lidington, the leader of the Commons, is making a Commons statement about tomorrow’s debate.

MPs will be asked to approve a motion allowing the prime minister to hold an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, he says.

Valerie Vaz, the shadow leader of the Commons, says Theresa May’s U-turn explains why the government was so reluctant to confirm the date of the Queen’s speech (which had been due in May).

She says that May ruled out an early election at least seven times.

She asks when parliament will be dissolved.

Lidington says it has to take place just after midnight on Wednesday 3 May. So in practice it will take place on the night of Tuesday 2 May, he says.

Updated

In her ITV interview Theresa May was asked how she would persuade people that her decision to hold an election was not just a cynical decision to take advantage of the huge Tory poll lead. She replied:

Well, I think if people look at what I’ve done and what we’ve done in government since the referendum vote, since I took over as prime minister, we have provided stability and crucially we have rolled our sleeves up, we have got on with the job, we’ve said we are going to deliver on Brexit. We have taken that absolutely crucial first step, which is triggering article 50. There is no turning back now. The UK will be leaving the EU.

I think, I hope, what people will see is I am somebody who likes to just get on with the job and get the job done and what I want to do is to be able to do that for the future. To deliver a real success of Brexit, deliver for working people up and down this country and to deliver a future, an ambitious future, for a stronger Britain in the future. I believe I can do that with a stronger negotiating hand in Europe and with the backing of the British people at an election.

Updated

Gianni Pittella, the leader of the socialist bloc in the European parliament, described the prime minister’s announcement as “immoral”. He said:

Theresa May is playing the same game that David Cameron played some years ago by exploiting Brexit to strengthen her political grip within her party and the country. It is immoral in a way. It is unacceptable to exploit such a sensitive issue as Brexit.

Updated

Alan Johnson, the Labour former home secretary who for several years was top of the list of ‘best alternative leaders’ for many in the party, has announced he is standing down. In a letter to his local party, posted on the Guido Fawkes website, he says:

For me the personal decision is whether to retire now or in 2022 when I’ll be into my 70s.

I’ve decided that going now will give me the opportunity to do other things with my life and is therefore in the best interests of me and my family. I also think it’s best for the party.

Here are some key election dates from the Press Association’s Ian Jones.

This is from Rupert Harrison, George Osborne’s former chief of staff.

What he means is that, if Theresa May comes back with a large majority of Tories in favour of cutting the aid budget and building more grammar schools, those backbenchers will not allow her to compromise over Brexit.

Is that true? It depends who the new Tory MPs are.

The Manchester Gorton byelection, which was due to take place on 4 May, the day of the local elections, will be cancelled, Sky’s Jon Craig reports.

Michael Gove
Michael Gove Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

Leading leave campaigner Micheal Gove has predicted that the election will provide a “transfusion of democratic energy” to ensure that Theresa May’s vision of Brexit prevails.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme, Gove claimed that May’s position within her party was now “politically impregnable”.

He said the election, which he is certain May will win, would provide the means to see off opposition to Brexit in the House of Lords and from the Scottish Nationalists.

Gove said: “It is clear that within the House of Lords, there will be a determination to fight a guerrilla campaign. It is also clear that the Scottish National Party will do everything in its power to act as a parliamentary hooligan in order to try to disrupt this.

“One thing they will not be able to resist is a mandate of general election victory which I’m absolutely confident Theresa will secure. That means given the constitutional balance in the House of Lords, they will have to respect both her leadership and the popular vote.”

He added: “The Conservatives will gain ground in Scotland.”

Lord Stewart Wood, formerly an adviser to Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband, agreed that the election was likely to boost May’s position on Brexit. He said: “There will clarity at the very least, but clarity for the hard Brexit that I suspect she’s been wanting for a long time.”

Wood admitted that election would be a “struggle” for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. “People around him would be the first to admit that,” Wood said.

He said: “The election we are facing is hard Brexit mandate election. Essentially it is a Brexit referendum mark II ... and Labour has to realise that.”

But he added that May runs the risk of “looking arrogant and opportunist” if she portrays the election as a presidential contest between herself and Corbyn.

Sir Vince Cable, the former Lib Dem business secretary, is going to stand again for his party in Twickenham.

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Here is the Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, on Theresa May’s decision to call an early election.

The British government has committed our country to a path of extreme economic recklessness. It doesn’t have to be their way. Wales needs MPs who will stand up to the Tories and be the voice of reason in parliament, defending our country’s vital economic links with Europe and the rest of the world.

Plaid Cymru is united and we’re up for the opportunity to advocate for Wales’ best interests. The more Plaid Cymru MPs, the stronger Wales’ voice will be. The official opposition is divided and unable to agree a position on the most important of decisions. Plaid Cymru in Westminster will stand up for our interests and make sure the decisions being taken now are made with future generations in mind, and not to cynically appease the extreme rightwing of the Tory party.

Plaid Cymru will provide real opposition to the Tories. The Party of Wales will contest every seat in June to make sure Wales has a stronger voice than ever before.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn has made a personal plea to members for extra funds as he seeks to beat a well-funded Conservative party in a general election.

In an email sent to up to half a million members, the Labour leader asked them to provide donations to fight a Tory campaign bolstered by wealthy, individual donors. He wrote:

The Tories already have a war chest provided by a small group of multimillionaires and, with just 50 days until this election, whatever you can afford will help. We will hire organisers across the country, order print and advertising and kickstart our digital campaigns.

Updated

Speaking to ITV, Theresa May said she had thought “long and hard” about the decision to hold an early election on her Easter walking holiday in Wales.

Before Easter, I spent a few days walking in Wales with my husband, thought about this long and hard and came to the decision that to provide for that stability and certainty, this was the way to do it. I trust the British people. I’m going to be asking the British people to put their trust in me.

Updated

In Northern Ireland the Social Democratic and Labour party leader, Colum Eastwood, has said Theresa May’s decision to call a snap Westminster election reflects the disdain she holds for Northern Ireland and attempts to restore a power-sharing government there. He said:

It tells you all you need to know about Theresa May that she would call a snap Westminster election in the middle of intense efforts to restore power-sharing government to Northern Ireland. From the beginning of her tenure as British prime minister, she has shown very little but disinterest and disdain for this place.

As Theresa May seeks a mandate for a hard Brexit from an English electorate, people here have an opportunity to unite behind parties which have defended their will and sought to protect our values.

England may want to isolate itself from Europe and the world. But people in Northern Ireland and Scotland made a different choice. A choice that cannot be fulfilled through a hard Brexit. We now have an opportunity to strengthen the mandate of parties which campaigned against and consistently voted against Brexit at Westminster.

I know people are suffering from electoral fatigue. But this is not a time to sit on the sidelines. This is a moment to unite to deliver a strong message to Theresa May and the Brexiteers. Our voice will be heard.

Updated

At Westminster there is huge excitement about the possibility of another general election. But not everyone feels the same way. This is from the BBC’s Jon Kay.

Ukip sources believe they can turn around the party’s recent misfortunes with victory in the Labour stronghold of north-east England.

They believe they can win in the seaside town of Hartlepool, which has been Labour since 1964 but elected Iain Wright with a slender majority of 3,024 at the 2015 general election.

Ukip went on to win its sixth seat on Hartlepool borough council last October, signalling that the country’s vote for Brexit had not killed the party’s appeal in the north-east.

One Ukip source in the north-east texted after Theresa May’s announcement on Tuesday morning: “I’d say there’s a fair amount of excitement in Hartlepool!”

Ukip also has its sights on Redcar (Labour majority: 10,388) and Blyth Valley (Labour majority: 9,229), where it believes it can make significant gains.

Elsewhere in the north-east, Labour’s Tom Blenkinsop announced within minutes of May leaving the No 10 podium that he would not stand for re-election in his seat of Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East.

With a majority of just 2,268, his is the slenderest Labour majority in the north-east and one many believe could fall to the Tories on 8 June.

Updated

Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, said the general election was an opportunity for the British people to shape any future withdrawal deal. He said:

The UK election is an internal affair but clearly Brexit will be the key element of it. This means there will be an opportunity for the UK citizens to express themselves on how they see the future relationship between their country and the EU.

As the EP Brexit negotiator, I will work with the new government for the best common future possible.

And Donald Tusk, the president of the European council tweeted of a “good phone call” with Theresa May in which the prime minister informed him of the coming general election.

Diane Abbott
Diane Abbott Photograph: James Gourley/REX/Shutterstock

The shadow home secretary, Diane Abbott, has insisted that Labour is prepared for the election and will campaign against “May’s version of Brexit”.

Speaking to BBC News, Abbott said the mood at this morning’s shadow cabinet meeting was not one of panic, but of unity behind Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

She said: “There was a calm mood, and Tom Watson lead the discussion talking about the importance of uniting behind the leadership. We have planned for this eventuality, we’ve got the people and the plans in place and we believe that the party as a whole wants MPs to unite behind the leadership and fight this election to win.”

Challenged about Labour’s preparations, Abbott added: “Every time the shadow cabinet has come together we have talked about the possibility of a snap election, now it is happening. We are going to fight it and we are going to win it.”

She refused to be drawn on how many seats Labour would win and she cited the Lib Dems win at the Richmond byelection as a reason for Labour hope.

Abbot said: “Theresa May is the one to worry, look at that Richmond result – people have looked at her version of Brexit and they don’t like it. The Richmond result, not necessarily with the Lib Dems benefitting, is going to be replicated across the country.”

She described May’s move as a “cut and run election”.

Abbott added: “This won’t be the first time the polls have a called an general election wrong. We believe the polls will allow the general public to focus on Theresa May’s version of Brexit, which puts controlling immigration before every other thing.”

“She has panicked her whole Brexit strategy is collapsing, she’s not going to get access to the single market and complete control of the borders. Most of the things she has promised will not happen.

“We want to bring people together with a vision of Brexit which protects jobs and protects living standards.”

Updated

Lunchtime summary and analysis

  • May has sought to justify her U-turn over an early election by arguing that a poll is necessary because the opposition parties are trying to block Brexit. In her statement in Downing Street (see 11.31am) she said:

Our opponents believe that because the government’s majority is so small, our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course ...

If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election.

Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.

Given that Labour’s position on Brexit is now broadly similar to Philip Hammond’s, and that the government got its article 50 legislation through parliament without a single opposition amendment being accepted, May’s claims about the extent of the opposition she faces are specious (although it is true that Labour has set six tests for Brexit that it could use to justify voting against the final Brexit deal). But voters may find what she is saying credible anyway. In his recent lengthy report on voter opinion (pdf), Lord Ashcroft found that 28% of people think Labour wants to stop Brexit happening “if at all possible”.

  • May has sought to put “leadership” at the heart of the election campaign. This is what she said in her statement.

And the decision facing the country will be all about leadership. It will be a choice between strong and stable leadership in the national interest, with me as your prime minister, or weak and unstable coalition government, led by Jeremy Corbyn, propped up by the Liberal Democrats – who want to reopen the divisions of the referendum – and Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.

Recently polling makes it obvious why May wants to make this an election about leadership.

The election will also allow May, who became prime minister last summer without winning a general election campaign and after a truncated leadership contest, to set out and seek to win a mandate for her own policy agenda. For a flavour of what we can expect, it is worth rereading this story from Tim Shipman’s in the Sunday Times two days ago (paywall), which was not denied.

Cabinet ministers are plotting to axe Britain’s pledge to spend 0.7% of national income on foreign aid so they can promise in the next Tory election manifesto to divert more cash to the armed forces ...

Under one plan being advanced, the law guaranteeing that 0.7% of national income is spent on aid would be replaced with one guaranteeing that a total of 3% was spent on ‘security’ instead.

  • May is going to get MPs to vote tomorrow on a motion authorising an early general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, a prime minister can only bring forward an election if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour. But Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems have all said or signalled that they will back the call for an early poll and it is possible that the motion will get passed without a division.
  • Downing Street has said that the early election will not interfere with the Brexit negotiations. (See 12.39pm.) But, in practice, having an election now could substantially expand May’s room for manoeuvre in the talks. The UK and the EU are expected to agree a transitional period and, as the EU’s negotiating guidelines make clear, the UK is likely to have to agree to paying a large sum to the EU and continued European court of justice jurisdiction as part of this deal. Voters (see here) and Conservative party members (see here) would oppose both compromises quite strongly. Until now May faced the prospect of trying to get these through parliament with a small majority and an election looming. Now it is possible that she could enter talks with a large majority and no election due until 2022.
  • Jeremy Corbyn has welcomed the announcement of an election and has said Labour will use it to set out “an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and NHS”. (See 11.44am.)

Matt Zarb-Cousin, who until recently worked for Corbyn as his press officer, says Labour is “very prepared” for the poll.

  • A Guardian/ICM poll published this morning - the first published since May’s announcement - has put the Conservatives 18 points ahead of Labour. (See 12.05pm.) According to Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives a majority of 126. The Press Association says that the average Conservative lead at the moment is 17 points and that no other Conservative government in modern times has been this far ahead of the main opposition party 51 days from a general election. Tony Blair’s Labour government went into the 2001 general election with a lead averaging 19 points, going on to win by a landslide.
  • Downing Street has said that parliament is expected to dissolve on 3 May. That would be one day before the local elections on Thursday 4 May, which will go ahead as normal. The general election campaign proper will start after that.

Updated

David Davis
David Davis Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

The Brexit secretary, David Davis, has denied that Theresa May has broken a promise by calling for a snap election.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme, Davis was challenged on the prime minister’s repeated pledges not to call an early election.

Asked if she had broken her word, he said: “Not at all.”

He claimed an election was now in the national interest because opposition parties have been “jumping on every little difficulty” to undermine the government’s negotiating position on Brexit.

Davis said: “I do the negotiation and it does undermine what we are trying to do.”

He added: “This is about getting a mandate from the British people to deliver the best possible outcome. It is not just about delivering Brexit, it is also about delivering the other aspects of her prime ministership which she was not elected for.”

Davis praised May’s decision as a bold move.

He said: “Elections are unpredictable. The easy thing for the prime minister to do would be to sit on the majority she has until 2020 and not take any risks, but this is an incredibly conscientious prime minister who takes her duty to the national interest very seriously indeed, and that’s what this decision is about.”

Updated

Arron Banks
Arron Banks Photograph: Goodman/LNP/Rex/Shutterstock

Arron Banks is due to launch his campaign to become an MP at Clacton on Thursday, possibly as a Ukip candidate, writes Robert Booth.

The insurance millionaire who previously bankrolled the Leave.EU Brexit campaign and Ukip, last month angrily quit the party, saying they were “never, ever getting back together” after a bitter row over political direction.

But he is now to meet Nigel Farage and Ukip officials on Wednesday to discuss whether he should stand as the party’s candidate, against Douglas Carswell, the incumbent MP who quit Ukip last month to sit as an independent.

Banks had intended to launch his own political movement, the Patriotic Alliance, on 5 May. He wanted to put up several hundred candidates against anti-Brexit MPs in an attempt to “drain the swap” at Westminster of what he considered careerist politicians, in a deliberate echo of campaign rhetoric used by the US president, Donald Trump. But May’s decision to call the general election has come too soon as he does not have a list of candidates in place.
“Whether Banks stands as an independent, Patriotic Alliance or Ukip, those things are all up for discussion,” said Andy Wigmore, Banks’s spokesman.

“We were due to launch it on 5 May, but events supersede everything. We will just concentrate on the Clacton swamp. Make Clacton great.”

Banks is also ready to give Ukip access to the social media campaign team at his Bristol insurance offices, which proved influential during the EUreferendum campaign. Following advice from US-based social media strategists Cambridge Analytica, which also advised Trump, Banks claims to have developed his own algorithms for targeting voters with tailored messages through social media platforms, in particular Facebook.

But he wants Ukip to consider only putting up candidates against MPs who are opposed to Brexit.

“What we might say to Ukip is, what you should do is not put candidates up against strong Brexit candidates whether they be Labour, Lib Dem or Tory and focus on the MPs that are anti-Brexit,” said Wigmore. “In that case, the machine that we have got helps massively.”

Carswell suggested a vote for Ukip was now redundant after last year’s referendum.

Updated

The SNP’s Mhairi Black, the youngest MP elected to parliament in more than 350 years, has confirmed she will be standing in the election after threatening to stand down because she hates Westminster.

Black tweeted that the vote was a opportunity to reject the Conservatives’ agenda.

Last month she told the Sunday Post that Westminster was a “waste of time.” She said: “It has been nearly two years and I still hate the place.”

Jess Phillips, Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, said she was “a bit in shock” at Theresa May’s announcement.

I think that Theresa May has lied to the country again and again - and she is being opportunistic. I think it is rubbish what she is saying about a country divided - she obviously doesn’t live round where I live. People just want to get on with their lives. She’s playing a game and its a shame. I don’t think there was any appetite for a general election from the public and this is Westminster politics once again.

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said the country was more divided than it ever had been during his lifetime. He said that represented “a complete failure by Theresa May to bring the country together behind a bold and confident future for Britain outside the EU”. He went on:

Every step of the way Labour has sought to put the national interest first and to build a national consensus around our future relationship with the EU – not as members, but as partners.

That is why Labour did not frustrate the article 50 process in parliament. It is why Labour has set six tests for the final Brexit deal that would deliver the best possible deal for everyone in Britain, whether they voted remain or leave.

This general election is a result of the prime minister’s failure to build a national consensus. It is also an opportunity for Labour to set out an inclusive, progressive and ambitious future for Britain.

Updated

According to Bloomberg’s Tim Ross, the Tories have hired Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded David Cameron’s election victory in 2015, to work on the campaign.

In the New Statesman recently George Eaton said Crosby told Theresa May that private polling suggested the Tories would lose most of the 27 seats they gained from the Lib Dems two years ago in an early election.

Updated

Theresa May has discussed the forthcoming election with the European council president, Donald Tusk.

Tusk tweeted that he had had a “good call” with May about the election.

Later Tusk cryptically tweeted this:

May made much of her negotiations with the EU in her statement about the snap poll.

She said: “If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election ...

“So we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.”

Updated

Despite Sinn Féin demands for a second Northern Ireland assembly election if talks aimed to restore devolution fail, it appears no such poll will be held on the same day as the 8 June general election.

The Northern Ireland Office said today any local assembly election was a function of what happens at the inter-party negotiations in Belfast. The prime minister’s announcement will not have any bearing on separate election to a new devolved parliament at Stormont, the NIO confirmed.

At the weekend the Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams, called for a local assembly election if the parties cannot reach an agreement on a power-sharing government. But Unionists, including the MP Jeffrey Donaldson, insist that the failure in talks will result in short-term “creeping” of direct rule from London.

However, the general election across the UK will surely colour the discussions between nationalists and Unionists, which resume this week. Every election in Northern Ireland, even a UK-wide one, is essentially a headcount between the two main communities in the region, which means inevitably that the contest will be divisive and will impact upon the talks. One early thing to watch out for will be calls from Unionist politicians for a Unionist unity electoral pact for the 8 June poll.

Updated

No 10 says parliament to be dissolved 3 May

Theresa May’s spokesman told journalists at the Number 10 lobby briefing that the prime minister talked to the Queen by phone on Monday before she made the announcement.

If the vote is passed to call the election by the necessary two-thirds majority in the Commons – this would need 434 votes – then parliament would be dissolved later, 25 working days before the general election. That means dissolution on 3 May.

The spokesman said Brexit negotiations would carry on even amid the election.

“Everything continues as at present,” he said.

Asked why May had changed her mind over the idea of an early election, her spokesman said he could add nothing more to the prime minister’s statement in Downing Street, where she said she had “recently and reluctantly” decided that an election was the only way to guarantee stability.

Updated

And here is the full statement from Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, on the early election announcement.

This announcement is one of the most extraordinary U-turns in recent political history, and it shows that Theresa May is once again putting the interests of her party ahead of those of the country.

She is clearly betting that the Tories can win a bigger majority in England given the utter disarray in the Labour party.

That makes it all the important that Scotland is protected from a Tory party which now sees the chance of grabbing control of government for many years to come and moving the UK further to the right – forcing through a hard Brexit and imposing deeper cuts in the process.

That means that this will be – more than ever before – an election about standing up for Scotland, in the face of a rightwing, austerity obsessed Tory government with no mandate in Scotland but which now thinks it can do whatever it wants and get away with it.

In terms of Scotland, this move is a huge political miscalculation by the prime minister.

It will once again give people the opportunity to reject the Tories’ narrow, divisive agenda, as well as reinforcing the democratic mandate which already exists for giving the people of Scotland a choice on their future.

The SNP will always put the people of Scotland first – and between now and June 8 we will work harder than ever to retain the trust of the people.

Updated

Here is Paul Nuttall’s full statement on the early election.

We welcome the opportunity to take Ukip’s positive message to the country.

However, we believe that the prime minister’s decision to call this election is a cynical decision driven more by the weakness of Corbyn’s Labour party rather than the good of the country. There is also the prospect of a slew of Tory held byelections caused by the seeming systematic breach of electoral law at the last election, predominantly in places where Ukip were pressing the Conservatives hard.

We are in the midst of Brexit negotiations so this election will provide a perfect opportunity for the 52% to vote for Ukip – the only party wholeheartedly committed to a clean, quick and efficient Brexit.

Updated

The National Union of Teachers has called on all parties to invest in education after narrowly rejecting affiliating to the Labour party.

The general secretary, Kevin Courtney, put out this statement in reaction to the election announcement:

Will press all parties to give commitments that if elected, they will invest and not cut education.

At the moment, Theresa May’s government has taken decisions which mean 99% of schools are going to lose funding. Teachers and parents will lobby vociferously to put school and sixth-form college funding at the heart of this general election. Candidates must recognise what will happen to children’s education if we make the £3bn worth of cuts a year that the National Audit Office has predicted.

It’s worth noting that the NUT conference in Cardiff over Easter came within a whisker of voting to affiliate to the Labour party for the first time, the motion being defeated with just 50.6% of the vote.

Updated

The Lib Dems claim 1,000 people have joined their party since Theresa May announced the election this morning.

Labour will call an emergency national executive committee meeting within days to draw up plans for candidate selection, which may require 2015 candidates in unwinnable seats to stand again, one senior source said. The source said:

Obviously many of them may not want to, which is understandable. But it may have to be the case that the NEC imposes candidates on some local parties. That’s been a conversation we’ve avoided having because a lot of people on the committee won’t like that … It will be a tough battle.

A snap meeting will also be called to discuss the party’s manifesto, though the 2015 manifesto is still technically party policy and much of it could be used again, the source said.

Updated

We’ve updated the earlier post with the text of Theresa May’s statement. (See 11.31am.) The full text is now there. You may need to update the page to get the update to show up.

The Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory according to a string of recent polls. A poll of polls conducted in March by Electoral Calculus gives the Tories a 112-seat majority in Commons. It was based on more than 10,000 voters.

A round of weekend polls made it look even better for May.

A ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday gave the Tories a stonking 21% lead over Labour.

While a YouGov poll for the Times put the Conservative lead at 17% over Labour.

The best of the weekend polls for Labour was in the Observer by Opinium, but it still gave the Tories a 11% lead. (Conservatives 38%, Labour 29%, Ukip 14%, Lib Dems 7%).

Updated

Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, has welcomed the early election. He says “Labour’s obvious weakness” is the reason for it taking place.

All political parties will now be seeking injections of cash to help fight the general election on 8 June.

Compared with the year running up to the 2015 general election, much less money has been raised by political parties over the past year, according to Electoral Commission records.

Over the previous recorded year of 2016, the Conservatives raised £19.5m, while Labour has raised £21.7m. The Liberal Democrats have raised £6.425m and the Scottish National party has raised £1.5m.

The 2015 general election was the most expensive in history – the Conservatives managed to raise £38m and Labour got about £32m in the year before polling day, suggesting David Cameron probably outspent Ed Miliband.

Under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour has become almost wholly reliant upon donations from trade unions and individual members. In contrast, the Tories rely on money from individual wealthy donors.

New donation and spending rules begin once the official “regulated period” begins, after an election is called and parliament is dissolved.

Before the 2001 general election, there were no limits on what political parties could spend on national campaigns.

The limit is calculated depending on how many seats a party contests; those that field candidates in all 650 seats are allowed to spend up to £19.5m, equivalent to £30,000 for each of the UK’s 650 constituencies.

Each party must ensure it abides by the spending limits in Great Britain. Separate limits apply in Northern Ireland.

UK political parties spent £31.1m for the 2010 general election. The Conservatives accounted for 53% of this total, the Labour party spent 25% of it and the Liberal Democrats 15%.

Updated

Guardian/ICM poll gives Conservatives 18-point lead over Labour

ICM carried out a state of the parties poll over the weekend. These are the first polling figures to be published since Theresa May’s announcement, although the fieldwork was carried out beforehand. Here are the figures.

Conservatives: 44% (up 1 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

Labour: 26% (up 1)

Ukip: 11% (no change)

Lib Dems: 10% (down 1)

Greens: 4% (no change)

Conservative lead: 18 points (no change)

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,052 adults aged 18+ online from 14 to 17 April 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, has tweeted a response to Theresa May’s announcement.

Since you’re here ... we’ve got a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever, but far fewer are paying for it. Advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. And unlike many news organisations, we haven’t put up a paywall – we want to keep our journalism as open as we can. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because it might well be your perspective, too.

If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps to support it, our future would be much more secure. You can give to the Guardian by becoming a monthly supporter or by making a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ

The pound has surged to its highest level in over two months as the City welcomes the prospect of a June election.

Sterling has erased its earlier slide and is now trading at $1.264 against the US dollar - its highest value since early February.

The pound jumped once Theresa May began her announcement (ending the speculation about what today’s statement would be).

And it just got another lift when Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn welcomed May’s decision, as you can see:

The pound vs the US dollar today
The pound vs the US dollar today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The chatter in the City is that the general election will probably strengthen the PM’s hand in the Brexit negotiations, if it gives her a rather bigger majority in Westminster.

Shilen Shah, Bond Strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment, explains:

“After much speculation this morning, the Prime Minister has confirmed that she is calling an early general election to fully implement the Brexit process....

Overall, today’s announcement suggests that PM wants full control of the Brexit process without any interference from the opposition.”

The Labour MP Tom Blenkinsop says he won’t be a candidate in the election.

He represents Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, where he had a majority of 2,268 over the Conservatives at the last election.

But Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, has confirmed that he will stand in Clacton against Douglas Carswell, the former Ukip MP who is now an independent.

Corbyn confirms Labour will vote for early election

Jeremy Corbyn has put out this statement about Theresa May’s announcement.

I welcome the prime minister’s decision to give the British people the chance to vote for a government that will put the interests of the majority first.

Labour will be offering the country an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and NHS.

In the last couple of weeks, Labour has set out policies that offer a clear and credible choice for the country. We look forward to showing how Labour will stand up for the people of Britain.

  • Labour confirms it will vote for early election.

To over-ride the Fixed-term Parliaments Act Theresa May needs a two-thirds majority in the Commons.

That suggests 434 MPs.

With the Conservatives (330 MPs) and Labour (229 MPs) voting in favour, May has her majority.

Professor John Curtice
John Curtice Photograph: Frank Baron for the Guardian

The respected pollster John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, claimed that May’s election gamble might not be as successful as she hopes.

He said it was possible that her current opinion poll lead could narrow over the campaign.

Speaking on BBC News, Curtice said: “We should bear in mind that Theresa May is very much going for a ‘vote Conservative for my vision of Brexit’. And that perhaps is going to make some Conservative voters unhappy. If that lead were to narrow then we could discover that she is back with a rather smaller majority than perhaps she is hoping for.”

But Curtice added: “The Labour party is at sixes and sevens on its stance on Brexit. There are divisions inside the Conservative party but the opposition is probably even more divided on the subject and she’s probably banking that so long as this remains the central issue, the Labour party will not be capable of fighting an effective alternative position.”

Updated

We still have not had a response from Labour to Theresa May’s announcement, but this is from the Green party’s co-leader, Caroline Lucas.

Britain is at a crossroads – and today’s announcement means that people are rightly given a say over the direction this country is going to take. Only the Green party offers a bold, positive vision for a different kind of Britain. At this election we will stand for an economy that works for everyone, not just the privileged few; a Britain that’s open to the world and the protection of our precious environment. We will stand up to the politics of hatred and division that is scarring our communities and give people across the country a chance to vote for a better Britain.

Theresa May's statement

Here is the full text of Theresa May’s statement.

I have just chaired a meeting of the cabinet, where we agreed that the government should call a general election, to be held on June 8.

I want to explain the reasons for that decision, what will happen next and the choice facing the British people when you come to vote in this election.

Last summer, after the country voted to leave the European Union, Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership, and since I became prime minister the government has delivered precisely that.

Despite predictions of immediate financial and economic danger, since the referendum we have seen consumer confidence remain high, record numbers of jobs, and economic growth that has exceeded all expectations.

We have also delivered on the mandate that we were handed by the referendum result.

Britain is leaving the European Union and there can be no turning back. And as we look to the future, the government has the right plan for negotiating our new relationship with Europe.

We want a deep and special partnership between a strong and successful European Union and a United Kingdom that is free to chart its own way in the world.

That means we will regain control of our own money, our own laws and our own borders and we will be free to strike trade deals with old friends and new partners all around the world.

This is the right approach, and it is in the national interest. But the other political parties oppose it.

At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division.

The country is coming together, but Westminster is not.

In recent weeks Labour has threatened to vote against the deal we reach with the European Union.

The Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill.

The Scottish National party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union.

And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.

Our opponents believe that because the government’s majority is so small, our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course.

They are wrong.

They underestimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country.

Because what they are doing jeopardises the work we must do to prepare for Brexit at home and it weakens the government’s negotiating position in Europe.

If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election.

Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.

So we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.

I have only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion.

Since I became prime minister I have said that there should be no election until 2020, but now I have concluded that the only way to guarantee certainty and stability for the years ahead is to hold this election and seek your support for the decisions I must take.

And so tomorrow I will move a motion in the House of Commons calling for a general election to be held on the eighth of June.

That motion, as set out by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, will require a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons.

So I have a simple challenge to the opposition parties, you have criticised the government’s vision for Brexit, you have challenged our objectives, you have threatened to block the legislation we put before parliament.

This is your moment to show you mean it, to show you are not opposing the government for the sake of it, to show that you do not treat politics as a game.

Let us tomorrow vote for an election, let us put forward our plans for Brexit and our alternative programmes for government and then let the people decide.

And the decision facing the country will be all about leadership. It will be a choice between strong and stable leadership in the national interest, with me as your prime minister, or weak and unstable coalition government, led by Jeremy Corbyn, propped up by the Liberal Democrats - who want to reopen the divisions of the referendum - and Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.

Every vote for the Conservatives will make it harder for opposition politicians who want to stop me from getting the job done.

Every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger when I negotiate for Britain with the prime ministers, presidents and chancellors of the European Union.

Every vote for the Conservatives means we can stick to our plan for a stronger Britain and take the right long-term decisions for a more secure future.

It was with reluctance that I decided the country needs this election, but it is with strong conviction that I say it is necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through Brexit and beyond.

So, tomorrow, let the House of Commons vote for an election, let everybody put forward their proposals for Brexit and their programmes for government, and let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability and continue to give the country the strong and stable leadership it demands.

Updated

Here is Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, on the announcement.

This election is your chance to change the direction of our country.

If you want to avoid a disastrous hard Brexit. If you want to keep Britain in the single market. If you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance.

Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority.

Updated

According to Guido Fawkes, these are the lines to take for Conservative MPs on Theresa May’s announcement.

Here are some of the things Theresa May has said in the past about ruling out an early election.

Just before she assumed the role of prime minister she said there would be no early election under her leadership. On 30 June, in the speech that launched her bid, she explicitly ruled it out.

Then in her first major interview after taking office, she told the Andrew Marr Show last September that the UK needed a period of stability after the shock Brexit vote.

She said: “I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability, to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020.”

In her Christmas message in 2016, May also strongly hinted that an early election was not on the agenda by calling for unity.

She said: “Of course, the referendum laid bare some further divisions in our country – between those who are prospering, and those who are not … those for whom our country works well, and those for whom it does not.

“As the fantastic MP Jo Cox, who was so tragically taken from us last year, put it: ‘We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us.’”

As recently as last month Downing Street said that an early election was “not going to happen”.

Updated

She challenges the opposition parties to accept an early election.

Then let the people decide.

And that election will be allow about leadership, she says.

May says it is with reluctance that she called an election.

But it is with determination that she will fight it.

Let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability, she says.

She says she will give the country the strong leadership it needs.

Updated

May says she needs an election now because other parties are opposed to the government’s Brexit plans

May says the government has a plan for Brexit that will allow the UK to regain control of its laws and borders.

This is the right approach.

But the other parties oppose it, she says.

There should be unity in Westminster, she says.

But there is not, she says.

Labour has threatened to vote against the final deal.

The Lib Dems want to grind parliamentary business to a standstill.

The SNP opposes what the government is doing.

And peers have said they will oppose the government all the way.

She says she is not prepared to allow her opponents to jeopardise the Brexit negotiations.

If there is not an election now, game-playing will continue.

And she says the Brexit talks will conclude as election speculation is intensifying.

  • May says she needs an election now because other parties are opposed to the government’s Brexit plans.

May says she has only recently come to this conclusion.

  • May says she will move a motion in the Commons tomorrow proposing an election on 8 June.

May is explaining her decision now.

She says when she became prime minister the country needed stability.

She has delivered that, she says.

And she has delivered on the referendum result. Britain is leaving the EU and there can be no turning back.

Theresa May announces general election on 8 June

Theresa May is speaking now.

  • May announces general election on 8 June.

This is from the official notes to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. It confirms that Theresa May does not need to repeal the Act to hold an early election. All she would need would be a vote with a two-thirds majority in the Commons.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 provides for fixed days for polls for parliamentary general elections. The polling day for elections will ordinarily be the first Thursday in May every five years. The first such polling day will be on 7 May 2015. The Prime Minister will be able to defer, by statutory instrument, the polling day for such parliamentary general elections to a day not more than two months later than the scheduled polling day.

The Act also makes provision to enable the holding of early parliamentary general elections. The trigger for such general elections would be either a vote of no confidence in the Government, following which the House of Commons did not pass a motion of confidence in a Government within 14 days, or a vote by at least two-thirds of all MPs in favour of an early election.

This is from the BBC’s Jack Evans.

Theresa May 'to call general election on 8 June', BBC reports

Updated

This is from Guido Fawkes. Fiona Hill is Theresa May’s co-chief of staff.

This is from the Times’s Henry Zeffman.

If Theresa May is not going to announce an early election, it may be something equally big.

Her surprise resignation on health grounds? That seems highly improbable, but it would suit the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges, who wrote a column just yesterday saying May was planning to quit.

There has also been speculation about May making an announcement relating to direct rule in Northern Ireland. But she has shown little interest in Northern Ireland affairs, and James Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland secretary, would be expected to make an announcement of this kind.

The City of London is gripped with excitement over Theresa May’s statement.

The pound took an immediate dip, from $1.26 to $1.253, as traders brace for fresh political drama in Westminster.

The pound versus the US dollar today
The pound versus the US dollar today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The selloff was triggered by talk of a snap general election, as Neil Wilson of ETX Capital explains:

“The pound plunged like a stone on news that Prime Minister Theresa May is about to make a major announcement outside Number 10 at 11:15 (BST).

The rumour mill says it’s going to be a snap election – that would throw up a huge cluster grenade of political risk, uncertainty and potential volatility in the markets. At the extreme this could even spark a reversal in the entire Brexit process.

May would have to get parliament to agree to this but we know most MPs are positively brimming to head back to the polls to seek fresh mandates in the wake of the Brexit vote. The Tories have a thumping majority in the polls at the moment so the PM may just be gambling on significantly boosting her rather slender majority in Parliament.

It’s an old cliche that markets hate uncertainty (also untrue, as some investors thrive on it). But right now, all the excitement in Downing Street is certainly weighing on the pound.

Downing Street have had almost an hour now to discourage journalists from speculating about an early election. They are not doing that, which increases the chances that it will be an election announcement.

Buckingham Palace has confirmed that the Queen is currently resident at Windsor Castle, my colleague Matthew Taylor reports.

Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act that was a consideration, because the prime minister had to see the Queen to call an election. Now that is no longer necessary, although David Cameron did call a courtesy call on the Queen before the 2015 election anyway.

But, if there is going to be an election, May would have to have a vote in the Commons first to over-rule the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

Updated

Will May call an early election? - Five reason why she might, and 5 reasons why she might not

The surprise announcement that Theresa May is going to make a statement in Downing Street this morning has renewed speculation that she will call an early election.

Here are some reasons why she might - and why she might not?

Five reasons why she might call an early election

1 - The polls, obviously.

This was YouGov yesterday.

And these figures may be even more important than the state of the party polling.

And ComRes found an identical lead for the Tories over the weekend.

2 - If May is going to call a surprise election, during the Brexit negotiations, now would be a good time to do it. May would be able to get the election out of way within about six weeks, which would not really interfere with the negotiations. The big advantage in having an election now is that during the negotiations she is almost certainly going to have to make compromises that will be unpalatable to hardline pro-leave voters and Tory MPs. If the election is in 2020, as it is meant to be, she may have to go to the polls explaining why the UK is still paying money to the EU, accepting European court of justice rulings etc. If she could win a majority now, she would be safe for another five years.

3 - Labour has said it would vote for an early election, meaning that May would have the two-thirds majority needed to bypass the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

4 - The Crown Prosecution Service is due to make a decision quite soon about whether to charge Tories in relation to alleged over-spending at the general election in South Thanet and in other constituencies. An election now would eliminate the risk of prosecutions leading to byelections in these seats.

5 - May would have shown that she has learnt the lesson from Gordon Brown’s “election that never was” in 2007. He dithered over calling an election at a time when it would have suited him, but called it off at the last moment, having let public speculation get out of hand. May until now has firmly ruled out an election, meaning that if she called one now, it would come as a complete surprise.

And five reasons why she might not

1 - Downing Street has firmly ruled out an early election quite recently. It is not obvious what reason May would be able to give to justify such an abrupt U-turn.

2 - May has until now prided herself on being straightforward and being a prime minister who is just “getting on with the job”.

3 - There is no evidence that the public want an early election. In fact, having had the referendum last year, people may be suffering from voting fatigue. And there is some evidence that voters punish politicians who haul them to the polls unnecessarily.

4 - There are already important elections planned for 4 May. It is too late to hold a general election then, and so a general election campaign would have to start after then. Voters would end up with two elections within two months.

5 - A Conservative election victory now, with a large majority, would be a major boost to the SNP’s argument that Scotland needs to vote for independence to protect itself from permanent Tory rule.

Updated

This is true.

This is from the BBC’s home duty editor Allie Hodgkins-Brown.

This is from Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal.

A colleague in the press gallery has just stuck his head into our office to pose this question: “Election? War? Or resigning? Which is it?”

Of course, it could be something a lot more innocuous.

This is from ITV’s Robert Peston.

Theresa May to make statement in Downing Street at 11.15

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has tweeted this.

Corbyn says most Labour voters, members and MPs support his policies

Here are some of the key points from Jeremy Corbyn’s interview on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.

  • Corbyn said Labour’s position in the polls will improve.

I think the issue will get out there more and more, people will begin to understand that we don’t have to go through these levels of austerity in Britain, we don’t have to have these levels of inequality in Britain. I think people will begin to see that actually what we are saying makes a lot of credible sense.

  • He declined to get into a discussion about the quality of his leadership. During the interview he clashed with the presenter, Piers Morgan, complaining that Morgan was only interested in polling and his leadership. And Corbyn said:

I’m not going to go into any big public self analysis. What I will say is of course I reflect on issues, I reflect on decisions we’ve made. I reflect on all of this, all the time.

  • He said most Labour voters, members and MPs back the policies he has been announcing.

I want the party to be united around these policies. I think you will find the vast majority of Labour members would support these policies. Labour voters would support these policies and I think the vast majority of the parliamentary Labour party.

  • He joked about making “too many” mistakes. When asked to name a mistake he had made, at first he refused to answer. Then he said:

I can’t give you a mistake this morning. There are too many.

Morgan, who, like Corbyn, is an Arsenal fan, said that Corbyn was like the Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger in that they both refused to admit mistakes. Corbyn said this comparision was “nonsense” and “absurd”.

After the interview was over Morgan posted his verdict on Twitter.

Jeremy Corbyn (left) being interviewed by Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.Corbyn on Good Morning Britain
Jeremy Corbyn (left) being interviewed by Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.
Corbyn on Good Morning Britain
 Photograph: ITV/PA

Having a gun may not have saved PC killed in Westminster terror attack, says new Met chief

Welcome back. I hope everyone had a good Easter.

MPs return to the Commons after the break, although they are observing Monday hours (ie, starting at 2.30pm), not normal Tuesday hours.

Jeremy Corbyn has been on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning. I missed the interview, but will post on it later, when I’ve caught up.

But I did catch Cressida Dick, the new Metropolitan police commissioner, who has been on LBC and on the Today programme. Asked about the Westminster terror attack, she suggested that she is not in favour of all police officers guarding parliament being armed.

Speaking about the killing of PC Keith Palmer, she said:

There were several armed officers within the vicinity, several armed officers protecting Parliament, we did protect parliament. It’s an absolute tragedy that Keith was killed. I don’t think we can be certain, but let’s see what all the reviews say, but I really don’t think we can be certain that an armed officer would necessarily have been able to protect themselves or to intervene earlier ...

What I would say is that it appears to me that in this particularly scenario is is very hard to say that if Keith had been armed he would be alive today. I think the speed of the attack - “action beats reaction” is what the firearms officers always say to me - and there’s a backdrop of loads of members of the public where he was standing. So it might have been, even if he had had a firearm, difficult for him to take a shot.

I will post more from the interviews soon.

Here is the agenda for the day.

12pm: Number 10 lobby briefing.

2pm: The home affairs committee takes evidence on immigration in Wakefield.

2.30pm: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, takes questions in the Commons.

3pm: Jeremy Corbyn meets carers in Birmingham to highlight Labour’s pledge to increase the carer’s allowance by £10.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

Updated

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