Widespread failures were exposed in the aftermath of an unprecedented flood a year ago that had thousands of people fighting for their lives in and around Lismore — but have the lessons been learned?
The rain was roaring. Raging. Relentless.
Like many in the flood-prone area of South Lismore, Sarah Steenson had been monitoring the weather warnings closely.
On Sunday, February 27, 2022, she stocked up on groceries for her husband and three children, prepared for the possibility of being stuck at home for a few days.
They spent the rest of the day moving items — the washing machine, dryer, lawn mower — from under the house to what they thought was a safe height.
"We prepared like we did for 2017," she said.
The 2017 flood reached a height of 11.59 metres in Lismore.
At Mrs Steenson's house, the 2017 floodwater had reached the third stair, about a foot above ground level. It was nowhere near coming inside the raised house.
The 2022 flood was forecast to be lower still ...
Floods are a fact of life on the New South Wales far north coast. The city of Lismore is ranked Australia's most flood-prone postcode.
Like thousands of others across the Northern Rivers region, the Steensons went to bed that night prepared.
Or so they thought.
At 9.30pm on the Sunday, evacuation orders were issued for North and South Lismore, giving residents half an hour to leave.
Before dawn, all the roads in and out of the two areas were cut.
As the flood peaked on February 28, the highway through Lismore became a shipping lane for the country's largest civilian rescue effort in recent history.
Sarah Steenson and her daughter's boat rescue was captured on film.
Similar scenes unfolded across the region as authorities were overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster.
So why were so many people caught off guard?
The catastrophe sparked two government inquiries that identified a number of issues and failures and suggested potential solutions.
But 12 months on from the disaster, has anything changed?
The folly in forecasts
In an age of technology that can capture the atmosphere of other planets, it can be easy to overestimate our ability to forecast our own weather.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the weather along Australia's east coast is among the most complex in the world and can change rapidly.
It says the 2022 flood event was the result of both large- and small-scale weather systems combining over an already-saturated landscape, with "each successive storm intensifying the impact of the previous".
From February 22, a low pressure system across northern NSW and southern Queensland resulted in torrential rainfall and the development of two east coast lows, which are challenging weather systems to predict.
On February 27, the bureau forecast a 10 per cent chance of rainfall exceeding 113mm at Dunoon, upstream of Lismore, the following day.
But in 24 hours, Dunoon received 775mm.
It is not just the volume of rainfall that's hard to predict, it's location too.
Professor Andrew Pitman, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, gave evidence at the NSW government's independent flood inquiry, led by Professor Mary O'Kane and former police commissioner Mick Fuller.
Dr Pitman said, with existing technology, a weather forecast for heavy rainfall with an accuracy of four kilometres would be an "outstanding" forecast.
But on the ground, four kilometres can mean heavy rainfall landing in an entirely different catchment.
"An error of 4km might be wholly acceptable in forecasting, and be at the limits of what is possible, and yet be a catastrophically bad forecast in the context of flood forecasting," he said.
The inquiry recommended upgrades to the state's weather radar network and investments in research and technology to more accurately forecast extreme rainfall events.
The NSW government gave it in-principle support and said it would "consider further opportunities" to improve research technology development.
Gauging from the ground
If accurate flood forecasts are a challenge, so is understanding the volume of rainfall in our catchments and rivers.
Lismore sits at the junction of two catchments where the Wilsons River and Leycester Creek converge.
Upstream is a network of rain and river gauges that are owned and maintained by a number of different organisations.
Submissions to the flood inquiry described it as an "inaccessible system of joint mismanagement" that is "not fit for purpose".
Lismore City Council said it owned and maintained 29 of the gauges in the catchment.
The council's asset manager, Scott Turner, said last year's record-breaking flood "wiped out" its entire gauge network.
"Not because they weren't well maintained … but simply because of the sheer volume of water," he said.
Mr Turner said all of the council-owned gauges had since been repaired and shifted to higher ground.
The council has applied for funding to improve the city's flood gauge network but has been repeatedly rejected.
In a statement, the NSW government said the council must complete a floodplain risk management study before it could be eligible.
"This ensures floodplain management actions undertaken by councils, with NSW government funding, will effectively manage future flood risks," a spokesperson said.
The limitations of gauging floodwater in the Lismore catchment is by no means an isolated case.
Multiple stakeholders have described the rain and river gauge networks in New South Wales and Australia more broadly as "patchwork".
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) chief executive Andrew Johnson told a Senate estimates hearing there were about 10,000 assets in the national flood warning network.
About 100 different organisations are involved with their ownership and maintenance.
Dr Johnson said the BOM owned about 48 per cent of the 2,200 gauges in NSW.
"The bureau seeks to ingest as much of the data that comes from third parties as it can," he said.
"Obviously, we can't ensure the reliability of that in some areas like, for example, in Lismore early last year."
The NSW flood inquiry recommended improvements to the state's gauge network, including transferring the ownership and maintenance of "as many river and rain gauges as possible" to the Bureau of Meteorology.
A government spokesperson said it was undertaking a $15 million project to assess the state's flood warning system.
This includes "addressing priority gaps in warning services and gauges in the 62 local government areas impacted by the February-March 2022 flooding".
Last week, the need for an improved gauge system was also highlighted in an interim flood mitigation report by the CSIRO, however the first round of federal funding for mitigation prioritised the region's pumps and drainage systems.
Risk rises rapidly
On the morning of February 27 last year, there was already minor flooding in Lismore and authorities predicted major flooding was a possibility.
But further updates from the BOM throughout the day and night painted a rapidly deteriorating situation.
Alerts from the BOM and SES show how, over the course of 24 hours, the situation progressed from minor flooding to a record-breaking catastrophe.
8.50am: Heavy rainfall occurring
Minor flooding occurring. Rises to major flooding possible from overnight Sunday into Monday.
2.15pm: Flood levels forecast
The Wilsons River may reach moderate flood level on Sunday evening. It may reach the major flood level early Monday.
4.20pm: Evacuation warning for Lismore
Residents and business in low-lying areas of Lismore may need to evacuate due to rising floodwater.
5.08pm: Forecast revised
Renewed rises are occurring. The river level may reach 11.0 metres during Monday, the highest level since the March 2017 flood.
9.30pm: Evacuation order for North & South Lismore
South and North Lismore must evacuate now. Leave by 10pm. The Lismore CBD must evacuate by 5am.
11pm: Levee to overtop
The levee protecting Lismore's CBD is expected to overtop around 5am Monday. The river is now expected to reach the level of the historic March 1974 flood (12.15 metres). Further rises are possible.
12.45am: Lismore evacuate NOW!
North & South Lismore, Lismore CBD, Girards Hill and low-lying areas of East Lismore must evacuate now. Lift possessions and important items above the predicted flood height, take pets and essential items with you, and leave as early as possible.
1.09am: Levee to overtop sooner
Moderate flooding is occurring. The levee is now likely to overtop around 3am. The river is still expected to reach around 12.15 metres late Monday morning, with further rises possible.
1.45am: Flood siren
The SES calls for Lismore's flood siren to be sounded. The firefighters responsible for sounding the alarm have already been flooded out of their building.
2.55am: New river peak predicted
Major flooding is occurring at Lismore, and the levee is about to overtop at 10.6 metres. The river may reach around 13.50 metres on Monday evening.
5.56am: Lismore's first 14m flood forecast
The Wilsons River may reach around 14.00 metres on Monday afternoon, above the previous record flood in February 1954 (12.27 metres).
8.48am: Record flooding is now occurring
Flooding is now occurring above the levels of the 1974 and 1954 floods. These record years have long been the benchmarks by which other floods are measured.
11.41am: Peak predicted
The river is expected to peak at 14.4 metres on Monday afternoon.
2.52pm: The situation steadies
The river level is now around 14.37 metres and steady.
8.17pm: At last, the river level drops
The Wilsons River peaked in Lismore at 14.40 metres around 3pm. It is now falling.
Off the charts
When the forecast for Lismore's flood hit 14 metres, it was literally off the charts.
And, like the rain, the calls for help were relentless.
As dawn broke, it became clear the scale of the disaster was far beyond anything local authorities could manage.
On ABC North Coast radio, SES spokesperson David Rankine called for civilian help.
The request for help was later retracted due to "dangerous" and "life-threatening conditions"; a number of civilians with boats reported being turned away at floodwaters' edge by authorities.
Yet witnesses on the day have repeatedly said the civilian rescue effort undoubtedly saved lives.
Long-time SES volunteer Ed Bennett, a flood intelligence officer for the Lismore unit, would later tell a parliamentary inquiry into the flood:
"The task was simply so great and our resources were so small relative to what was needed."
As the water receded, authorities found five people had died across the Northern Rivers.
Some died in their homes, while others were trapped trying to navigate the floodwaters.
In it together
The Lismore SES unit was prepared for a major flood. Just not one of this scale.
On February 24, the SES was ramping up its preparations. It sent an extra three flood rescue operators to the region and deployed additional members to the planning and logistics team.
Fire and Rescue NSW also sent two flood rescue teams to help.
The Lismore SES unit had about 80 members on its books and housed eight rescue vessels — five motorised boats and three inflatable rafts called Arkangels.
Then-unit commander Lacy Loloa said they spent the four days prior to February 28 doorknocking, sandbagging and rescuing drivers from flooded roads.
On February 27, the SES asked the Defence Force for the use of its vehicles and help from local reserves to assist with doorknocking and sandbagging.
Ms Loloa said they were prepared for moderate to major flooding.
"We were watching the radar … and we knew that there was a possibility of having a flood similar to 2017.
"But I really don't think that until later on that night there was any way of knowing that it was going to reach the levels that it was."
The sun had already set when the weather system took a turn for the worse.
As the scale of the flooding unfolded on February 28, the SES gained access to two additional boats from Southern Cross University, and two flood rescue teams from Maitland and Singleton brought their own vessels.
"On top of that, we were just throwing every available person into a civilian boat just to assist," Ms Loloa said.
"Having our volunteers who are trained flood rescue boat operators in with civilians sort of added that extra bit of safety for civilians as they went out.
"I truly believe that we did everything right with the information that we had."
In the year since, the unit has bolstered its volunteer base and equipment.
It now has more than 100 volunteers on the books, seven vessels, four Arkangels, a high-clearance vehicle and more paid staff.
Despite the extra resources, the local SES units would still likely be overwhelmed if the region was faced with another 14.4-metre flood.
They simply cannot respond to hundreds, let alone thousands, of simultaneous calls for help.
"We need to stop looking backwards and just work out what the worst-case scenario is so we can make decisions on that," Ms Loloa said.
Better prepared
Despite the limitations of early-warning systems, the independent flood inquiry still believed the SES could have been better prepared for what was to come.
It found that by late 2021, the SES was aware of the likelihood of above-average rainfall and heightened flood risk along the east coast.
As the lead agency in floods, it was up to the SES to make sure the community was prepared and SES members were adequately trained.
Yet the inquiry found "no evidence of any extraordinary preparation or planning undertaken by NSW government agencies in line with this identified heightened risk and likely consequences".
"The SES was actually unprepared for events of the scale, severity and complexity seen in 2022," the inquiry found.
This was demonstrated by the many failures to give timely public warnings, resulting in community rescues far outnumbering those by the SES, the inquiry said.
The SES has since shifted to the Australian Warning System, a nationally consistent approach for alerts and warnings.
The organisation's flood warnings and advice are now available through the Hazards Near Me app launched earlier this month.
It is an updated and rebranded version of the NSW Rural Fire Service's Fires Near Me app which was downloaded nearly three million times during the Black Summer bushfires.
Newly minted northern NSW zone commander Greg Swindells said easy access to accurate and timely information was crucial.
"A perfect operation for us would be no flood rescues.
"That perhaps may never happen, but if we can limit the amount of people that we need to rescue by giving good, strong, early advice for people to make decisions to take appropriate action, then that's a success for us."
Civilians take flight
Even before dawn on February 28, helicopter pilot Michael Barnes was in a race against time.
"When we got to our helicopter, the water was already up to its belly," he recalled.
"Initially I had to save my own machine along with my family, which we flew out in the morning in the dark and the rain."
Mr Barnes knew aerial assistance would be crucial.
His first task was to locate the crew of an RFS chopper that had winch-rescue capability.
He found them on the roof of a Lismore motel.
"We were landing on roofs initially to get people out," Mr Barnes said.
The floodwater left the region isolated.
Highways were cut, and even those who could get to a supermarket or service station often found supplies running low.
People in more remote areas were stranded. Landslips destroyed roads and houses.
Food and supplies had to be flown in.
Mr Barnes made it his mission to deliver the goods, saying he conducted hundreds of flights to isolated communities.
"We didn't know where the money was coming from at this stage; no-one expected to get reimbursed, it was just what you did.
"What kept us going was the energy of the volunteers, the generosity and gratitude from those who were so desperately in need."
Destruction continues downriver
Scenes of disaster continued to unfold as the floodwaters made their way downriver.
In Woodburn, population 700, residents were trapped on one of the town's bridges.
It became an island refuge for people, pets, livestock and cars.
It was also a launching pad for boat rescues.
NSW Police senior constable Adam Bailey helped coordinate the rescue of around 400 residents.
He told the independent inquiry the town had 19 SES members but 11 were isolated by floodwaters and could not respond.
Of the eight who could initially respond, none were boat operators.
Nearby Wardell had no SES unit, though the local RFS brigade helped as much as possible.
Once again, citizens stepped up.
Career fisherman John Joblin and his brothers Garry and Joshua are estimated to have rescued around 300 people in three days.
Many had known the floodwater was coming but underestimated the scale of the event.
Mr Joblin recalls speaking to a friend the night before who was sure the flood would not come close to the then-record heights of 1954 and 1974.
The next day, they woke to a stark new reality.
"You wouldn't believe it. He rang me up and said: 'Can you come and rescue us?'" Mr Joblin said.
"He was the first person we went and rescued [and] he had water coming through the bottom of his floor."
Mr Joblin says he doesn't blame emergency services or the government over the disaster response since so many people disregarded the warnings.
But he hopes not to see another flood of this magnitude in his lifetime.
"I guess I hope that it doesn't happen for another 100 years."
Vital lifeline lost
As homes and entire communities were cut off by flooding, a crucial lifeline was lost — communication.
Those who could still call triple-0 did, but for many, pleas for help went unanswered so they turned to social media as a last resort.
Their pleas were collated and triaged by a small group of individuals and passed on to civilian rescuers.
These are some of their messages:
Two kids and dad. Can't get onto roof. Water now close to the ceiling. URGENT HELP NEEDED 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Don't have long left can't get on roof 3 women 3 dogs 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Aunt and 2 kids, barely hanging on URGENT 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
1 adult in the attic trying to break through to the roof. 🚨🚨🚨
Stuck inside house can't get to roof going under inside 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Wheelchair bound man and women URGENT 🚨🚨🚨🚨
URGENT on chair water at chest can't escape 🚨🚨
Mother and son and 2 friends on the roof URGENT 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
The volume of people calling for rescue meant the system the SES uses to log and record calls for assistance, known as BEACON, was overwhelmed.
The independent flood inquiry heard the system was even turned off or ignored by local SES members unable to cope.
As many as 3,000 calls for assistance were lost by the SES in Lismore alone.
Even triple-0 – which uses a different system — was overwhelmed. It redirected calls for flood rescues with the following message:
There was simply no redundancy built into the system for the volume of calls that day.
The independent flood inquiry recommended the coordination of flood rescues be brought under the triple-0 dispatch centre in line with other types of rescues.
Although the state government gave in-principle support to the recommendation, no change is imminent.
"The existing coordinated approach between the NSW SES and the NSW Police Force will continue while further consideration is given to opportunities to improve flood rescue coordination," a government spokesperson said.
In December, $160 million was announced to provide additional flood rescue vehicles, equipment and training across NSW.
Critical infrastructure collapse
Nearly 70,000 Essential Energy customers were affected by power outages.
During the peak of the floods, 18 communities across northern NSW had no telecommunications access through mobile, internet or landline.
Floods warnings, calls for help and contact between family and friends were virtually impossible.
For thousands of people taken to the Southern Cross University evacuation centre, the lack of phone or internet service amplified uncertainty about the wellbeing of loved ones.
Telecommunications companies said the scale of the outages was due to power loss, flood damage to land-based infrastructure like fibre-optic cables, and sites like mobile base stations being inaccessible.
In some isolated communities, such as Upper Wilsons Creek, residents took it upon themselves to restore critical communications by connecting two-way radios to a satellite dish trekked in on foot.
The idea was adopted by the NSW parliamentary flood inquiry which recommended the state government, telcos and satellite providers distribute satellite phones and terminals to community hubs in flood-prone areas, starting with those most likely to become isolated during a disaster.
Meanwhile, the independent flood inquiry recommended authorities develop redundancy options like backup diesel generators to supply power to essential infrastructure, alternative telecommunications systems and water treatment facilities.
It also recommended telcos allow customers to use other networks' infrastructure to boost coverage during emergencies, known as cross-carrier roaming.
A NSW government spokesperson said it would deliver eight new mobile phone towers and 18 generators to sites around the state over the next nine months, but that telecommunications regulation fell to the Commonwealth.
A federal government spokesperson said it had previously rolled out emergency satellites for NBN access at 334 locations in NSW, while telcos could apply for funding to buy generators, battery upgrades and make other improvements.
In the meantime, several northern NSW communities have set up civilian UHF radio networks as a failsafe form of communication during a disaster.
Chaotic, confusing, confronting
With thousands of homes inundated and roads cut, many flood survivors turned to their closest evacuation centre.
By March 2, there were 23 active evacuation centres across the Northern Rivers.
Few public images exist from inside the evacuation centres.
These images were taken from inside the Goonellabah Sports and Aquatic Centre (GSAC) – a Lismore City Council-operated facility, uphill from the CBD.
It was the second evacuation centre to be set up in Lismore, opening its doors on March 1.
The first, and the largest in the region, was at Southern Cross University.
The centre was an indoor basketball court with a capacity of up to 350 people.
It would be forced to take on an estimated 1,200 to 3,000 evacuees arriving over successive days.
Many turned up with "just the clothes on their back, grass in their hair, saturated and shaking", according to an inquiry submission.
Evacuees would later tell the independent inquiry of disturbing, graphic and unsafe conditions, including "children witnessing people openly taking drugs, needles discarded on the floors and people having sex".
The independent flood inquiry found some centres, like the one at Southern Cross University, were chaotic, confusing and lacked the basics, including security, power and access to communications.
The inquiry found a "notable" contrast between evacuation centres like the one at Southern Cross University and the one at the Goonellabah Sports and Aquatic Centre, which had "a more organised system, more communications and more humane conditions including made-up beds and other support enabled by community volunteers".
"GSAC sought to create space for elderly people and assist where possible, but – like all centres – there was limited forward planning for the myriad of difficult cases being presented to untrained volunteers: children with severe autism; people with disabilities, families with young children and women in centres with their previous abusers," the inquiry said.
While the submissions specifically about evacuation centres were mostly negative, the inquiry received many comments from evacuees expressing gratitude to all the support staff who were physically present at the centres and tirelessly helped those in need.
In the same way that community members stepped up during flood rescues, unofficial evacuation centres emerged through a need to fill the gap in official centres.
After the flood inquiry recommendations were handed down, the NSW government dismantled its lead recovery agency, Resilience NSW, which was established in the wake of the Black Summer bushfires.
Disaster welfare services have now been brought under the state's Department of Communities and Justice, and an extra $17 million was provided in December to improve those services, including evacuation centres.
"The funding will also improve training for evacuation centre staff, including training exercises which will help them develop their skills and rehearse the various roles and responsibilities required in a centre," a government spokesperson said.
Out of harm's way
On the anniversary of the country's most costly natural disaster, a key question remains: Are people out of harm's way?
Some houses received so much damage they remain abandoned, but others show signs of life.
Their occupants are either rebuilding or waiting to escape the floodplain.
In July the Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation (NRRC) was formed to lead the rebuild.
But it was not until October that the state and federal governments announced $800 million to begin the mammoth task of relocating, raising and retro-fitting homes in the most flood-prone areas.
Demand is high — more than 6,000 households have registered for the scheme.
The first priority is for government to buy back the properties most at risk during floods.
North Lismore resident Naomi Worrall was among the first 190 people to be contacted for a buyback assessment.
She said she had tried to be patient in the year since the flood, but her faith in the NRRC was "rapidly evaporating".
Ms Worrall opened a cake shop in town before the floods, but she is not sure whether to reinvest in the business.
"If I [take up another lease on a shop] then I won't be able to get another mortgage, and I don't know if what they're going to offer me is going to be enough to move my life without another mortgage."
The first formal buyback offer was sent out less than a fortnight ago on February 16.
The scheme is funded to cover 2,000 buybacks and it is projected that 250 formal offers will have been made by April.
NRRC chief executive David Witherdin said it had been a complex process, with detailed hazard assessments and a multi-step valuation to assess each property's worth before the flood.
"We're doing that to make sure that we've got our processes rock-solid and we'll get the best outcome for people," he said.
"Whilst it may appear slow on the outside, I'm confident that we're going to scale up and we're going to move quickly.
"We know we're going to get other [flood] events, and the last thing I want is to be sitting here in three or five years' time going, 'Hey, you spent $700 million and you didn't make the difference that you said you would'."
Some residents waiting to receive a buyback also hope to relocate their houses to higher ground, an idea the NRRC supports.
The NRRC called for offers of flood-free land to develop and received more than 320 responses.
Mr Witherdin said he expected to release a shortlist of "preferred options" by April, and progress "from community consultation to action by mid-year".
Then there's the matter of affordability. Amid the current housing crisis, some residents worry whether the buyback offers will be enough to purchase a new house elsewhere or buy a block of land and cover the cost of relocating.
Mr Witherdin said the issue was "front of mind" and his team was considering different "levers" government could use to keep land affordable.
These levers might include options such as interest-free loans to bridge the gap between buyback and relocation costs, but anything requiring additional funding will mean further negotiation and commitment from government.
While the buyback scheme has been at the forefront of residents' minds, the NRRC is also juggling work to improve social and economic recovery, and ensure critical infrastructure is more flood resilient.
"There's so much more work going on, and it is about really bringing the resilience back into town centres and returning that vibrancy," he said.
Time marches on
Throughout last year, Premier Dominic Perrottet repeatedly said he wanted to minimise future development on high-risk floodplains.
The new statewide Reconstruction Authority has been tasked to develop a disaster mitigation plan, then help individual councils to come up with ways to prevent or minimise the effects of disasters in their areas.
"Any changes to flood planning levels have major impacts on landholders in disaster-prone areas, and this work requires extensive ongoing consultation with communities, local government and industry," a government spokesperson said.
Changes to a local council's legally binding development and environment plans can takes years to make.
In the meantime, councils continue to receive development applications for housing subdivisions and estates on flood-prone land.
And in the wait for buybacks, some residents are selling their flood-damaged houses on the private market.
Still in harm's way
In northern NSW, people are still working to get their lives back on track.
Volunteers are still stepping up to operate recovery centres and community hubs.
A recent audit by Lismore City Council showed the city's inner CBD had returned to a 60 per cent occupancy rate compared to a pre-flood occupancy of 90 per cent.
But everyone knows another flood is inevitable and there's uncertainty about who will be safe when it comes.
"[I came back here because] I didn't really have anywhere to go, it's my home," Naomi Worrall said.
North Lismore is hard to access during a flood and Ms Worrall worries that rescue by the SES is unlikely; she says she would rather be living in her relocated house, with a nice garden, off the floodplain.
But if a flood hits tomorrow, she will still be in North Lismore, still in harm's way.
"We were crawling on our roofs, trying to work out which lives we could save. We understand the risk of living here," Ms Worrall said.
"The problem is we just don't know if we will move or when they will ever make a decision.
"I wake up every morning and I can't move. I feel paralysed because I can't work around [their indecision]."
Editor's Note (17/3/2023): Photos of the GSAC evacuation centre were incorrectly captioned in the original article as the Southern Cross University evacuation centre. Additional information from the independent flood inquiry regarding evacuation centres has been included.
The NSW government's full responses to questions put to it by the ABC can be found here.
Credits
- Reporting: Leah White and Emma Rennie, with additional reporting by Bruce MacKenzie
- Photography: Leah White, Emma Rennie and ABC reporters
- Video: Leah White, Matt Coble, 7.30, ABC archives and contributed
- Illustration: Sharon Gordon
- Producer: Daniel Franklin
