Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS) and Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) are riding a surge in trading-card demand. At the same time, Mattel Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:MAT) outlook shifts toward a holiday-heavy fourth quarter amid tighter retailer inventories.
Bank of America’s Alexander Perry says trading cards—and especially Magic: The Gathering—remain the key growth engine for Hasbro heading into late 2025, with a busier release slate, “an expanding player base”, and wider distribution fueling upside.
Perry is hosting investors with Hasbro management at MagicCon: Atlanta on Sept. 26 and expects Magic to be the primary contributor to calendar 2025 earnings power.
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He cites a strong second-half set schedule, sustained demand for prior releases, and an expanding ecosystem of players and retailers.
Channel checks point to “strong sell-out” for recent drops—Final Fantasy reportedly cleared, including reprints—while titles such as Edge of Eternities continue to build traction, Perry writes.
Upcoming crossover sets, including Spider-Man (Sept. 26) and Avatar: The Last Airbender (Nov. 21), are drawing elevated anticipation from players and stores.
Retailers are increasing shelf space for trading cards and collectibles to broaden demographics and offset softer demand in legacy toy aisles. Target continues to lean into trading cards, with channel checks indicating sales are up roughly 70% year to date and on pace to exceed $1 billion in 2025.
According to Hasbro disclosures, the Wizards Play Network store count rose by roughly 1,500 since year-end 2024 to about 9,000 locations (~20% growth).
Unique players increased about 40% year over year in the first half of 2025, event tickets are up about 20%, and attendance at Las Vegas MagicCon climbed more than 25% from a year ago.
As noted by the analyst, Euromonitor data shows the U.S. population ages 0–12 peaked in 2016 and is expected to decline through 2036, nudging retailers toward higher-engagement categories like trading cards to attract new customers.
Retailers are managing inventories tightly amid consumer uncertainty, delaying orders and shifting toward just-in-time deliveries.
Perry sees some revenue pushed into the fourth quarter: he trims third-quarter EPS for Mattel to $1.02 (from $1.08), expecting a holiday rebound; for Hasbro, he models consumer products revenue down 3.5% in the third quarter, improving to about +1.0% in the fourth quarter.
Perry views Hasbro’s video game strategy—including the planned 2026 launch of Exodus—as a lever into a faster-growth market.
He notes global video-game spending has risen at a high-single-digit pace since 2010, versus low-single-digit growth for traditional toys.
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