With only hours until the polls open, the fate of Labour heartland seats like Hartlepool rests with the thousands who say: “I’ve always voted Labour but … ” Voters like Tim Clay, a 48-year-old welder and passionate leave voter. A Labour supporter all his life, Clay (above) is now weighing up the once-unthinkable: voting Conservative.
“I’ve never, ever voted Conservative,” he says. “The only way I would do it now is because of the referendum, because they’re willing to go through with what the country decided. I know a lot of the Labour party did not want to leave the EU, and even now they’re still pushing against it, and that’s the only thing that would turn me away from them.
“I’m working class, I always have been, and I’ve always voted Labour – but that one small aspect could sway me. I’m still undecided about who to vote for.”
It is the verdicts of people like Clay all across Britain that will sway this unpredictable election and decide whether Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn walks into 10 Downing Street on Friday morning. The Labour party’s future hinges on the outcome in towns like Hartlepool, which has voted red for half a century.
Labour is defending a slender majority of 3,024 votes, in a battle made more difficult by the resignation of its incumbent MP, Iain Wright, days after the prime minister called the election.
Facing a 20-year decline in its share of the vote, Labour is under attack by both Ukip, which came second here two years ago, and the Conservatives, who feel the town’s sweeping Brexit vote gives their party a strong chance of overturning 53 years of Labour rule.
Yet in Hartlepool this appears not to be “the Brexit election” that many predicted. In conversations with voters across the political spectrum over the past six weeks, as part of the Guardian’s Voices and Votes series, the EU referendum seems to have fallen down the list of priorities for many of the undecided, replaced by concerns over the future of the NHS, social care and education.
Even for Clay, for whom Brexit is a key issue, there are other important matters that will play into how he votes on Thursday. He is deeply sceptical about the welfare system – “you’ve got people who’ve been out of work for years, who’ve never worked, and they’re just left to get on with it” – and his own fall in living standards. “No word of a lie, I was taking home more money each week 25 years ago and I’m doing the same job,” he says. “Back then it was manual, now it’s Mickey Mouse work. I was rich back then. I’m not now – I’m on the bones of my arse every week.”
At a focus group of nine undecided voters, organised by the consultancy BritainThinks, Brexit is described as having “been settled” or “been and gone”. And immigration, a key issue for many leave voters in Hartlepool, has slipped down the priority list for those who feel the government will have more control over Britain’s borders post-Brexit.
“It’s done now, we’ve decided,” says Andrew Glover, 31, a marine engineer who voted remain but is now “OK with us leaving”. “If Labour said they were going to go through with it and then didn’t, the place would be on fire. There would be riots like we saw in 2011, because it was the majority of the country that voted for it.”
Sharon, a dog behavioural adviser, says immigration has always been one of her biggest concerns, but not since Britain voted to leave the EU. “The big issue now is education and job security for the kids growing up,” she says. “I just want to know they’ll be able to put food on the table and get a house.”
Francesca, a 26-year-old hairdresser, says: “They’ve all been a bit crappy. It’s so untrustworthy, everything both parties are saying.” Most of her friends are voting Labour but an online survey recommended she vote Conservative, based on her views on issues including security and immigration. The hugely contentious downgrading of Hartlepool’s hospital, which has now loomed over three general elections, made her feel as if politicians were not interested in the town or the will of the people. “People were trying to fight to keep it open, but it just fell flat,” she says. “Do they [politicians] know Hartlepool exists?”
For many, the fate of the hospital goes to the heart of their disillusionment: a once-proud institution that has shrunk and been dismantled, rather than grown and improved. The only issue that unites the nine voters at the focus group is the sense that Hartlepool has “stalled” or is not moving in the right direction.
In the Headland, a deprived corner of the town around the once-thriving shipyards where Ukip has found support, Tim Robson is pondering his vote. When visited by the Guardian six weeks ago, the former Labour supporter said he was probably going to vote Ukip as “the lesser of three evils”, despite opting to remain in the EU referendum.
Days after the article was published, a handwritten envelope dropped through his door from the Liberal Democrats. He hadn’t realised they were standing (in recent elections the party has put up a so-called “paper candidate”, where the name appears on the ballot paper but they don’t canvass for votes) and is now somewhat tempted by the Lib Dem candidate, Hartlepool-born Andy Hagon.
“Theoretically, I would vote Lib Dem if they had a realistic chance of winning Hartlepool, but I don’t think they do,” he says, his polling card resting on the fireplace in his living room.
Robson, 56, thinks Ukip’s vote will “crumble” because voters no longer see the party as the guardians of Brexit. He’s sceptical about the Tories making any real inroads in Hartlepool, a town still scarred from the decline of heavy industry under Margaret Thatcher. Has he made up his mind? “If you ask me now, I would say Lib Dems.” He pauses. “If it wasn’t for the Trident issue, I would have been tempted [with Labour].”
Which way will it go in Hartlepool? It all depends on those thousands of wavering Labour voters. If the party’s base holds firm, then it must hope that Ukip and the Conservatives will cannibalise the rest of the vote, giving it an uneasy path to victory. But I wouldn’t put money on it.
