As Harry Kane cut a forlorn figure at the end of Saturday’s Premier League action - he was there for Tottenham’s 3-0 defeat to Manchester United, we’ve all heard your side-splitting Halloween ghost joke - there was a sense he would be better off elsewhere and one place in particular.
Earlier, 10-man Manchester City suffered a shock 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace, leaving the champions five points behind leaders Chelsea after 10 games, despite last month’s impressive win at Stamford Bridge.
Including the 1-0 Community Shield loss to Leicester City, Pep Guardiola’s side have failed to score in six matches this season. Albeit, they have 37 goals in their other 10 outings but six blanks are the same amount as City registered over the course of 61 games last term.
In the meantime, the Blues tried and failed to sign Kane as Daniel Levy’s lofty asking price ultimately proved prohibitive.
Fast forward a couple of months and City are not scoring enough goals, while the striker they wanted more than any other is struggling in a terrible Spurs team whose supporters were mutinous as United ran away with victory.
The solution is obvious, right? City go back in for Kane in January, get a more favourable price and everyone’s a winner.
January blues for the Blues?
Mid-season business is not something City’s director of football Txiki Begiristain tends to go in for. Aymeric Laporte was the last January arrival of any note at the Etihad Stadium in 2018, although there was an initial and fruitless attempt to secure Riyad Mahrez in the same window.
City were close to signing Laporte ahead of Guardiola’s first season in charge, so that is a mark in Kane’s favour. Any move in the winter market will be for a known quantity and it became very clear during the summer that the England captain was Pep’s man.
But Laporte’s arrival came with City on fine form and on the way to a record-breaking 100-point season. John Stones, Vincent Kompany and, yes, even Nicolas Otamendi had impressed at centre-back.
Like most City signings since the 2017 summer revamp, Laporte was not a “plug-in and play” acquisition. There tends to be a period of assimilation - sometimes as long as a couple of seasons - before a new man becomes fully attuned to Guardiola’s demands and an integral part of the team.
Mahrez’s performances in the second half of last season and Rodri and Joao Cancelo’s excellent form before Palace arrived this time around are examples of this. With the particular exception of Ruben Dias, recent City buys are rarely quick fixes.
Dias shows, exceptions can and should be made for exceptional talents who might be able to improve the team instantly, although the bar for those is obviously very high.
Harry over the hill?
This brings us back to Kane. Is he hitting that high bar or operating anywhere near it right now?
In nine Premier League appearances this season, he has one goal and one assist - both of which came in the same game to secure Steve Bruce's Newcastle P45. It marks an incredible drop-off from the output that made him one of the most feared number nines on the planet.
From the 2014/15 season onwards, Kane has never averaged lower than 0.63 goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League. In 2016/17 and 2017/18, he scaled an incredible 1.04 and 0.88 respectively. That figure is currently tracking at 0.12 and it’s not even a case of him getting the chances and missing them,
As per FBref, Kane’s xG per 90 of 0.28 is his lowest since this data was collected for England’s top flight. It was as high as 0.75 in 2017/18.
Last season, he took a huge step forward as a creator, something that undoubtedly heightened Guardiola’s admiration.
Kane's relationship with Son Heung-min and majestic through balls saw him rack up 14 Premier League assists. His previous best was five, while 37 goal involvements in 35 games amounted to his most productive overall effort in England’s top flight.
However, there is a suspicion that Kane might have disappeared down a bit of a playmaking rabbit hole here. Games where he has had very few touches in the opposition penalty area - or zero, as was the case in the Euro 2020 final - have been well documented.
He averages 4.27 touches in the opposition penalty area per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season - the lowest of his career despite the small sample size, but in line with where his numbers have been tracking in this regard over the previous two seasons.
This is not leading to an impressive creative output. Last term, he averaged 3.3 shot-creating actions per game - a dribble, pass or foul won leading to a shot. This time around he is a shade under two.
Euros hangovers
Form is temporary and the years of class Kane has produced means City shouldn’t just stick their file on him in the bin just yet.
On the other hand, this is a 28-year-old with a history of repeated ankle problems. You have to go back to before Euro 2020 for a time when Kane looked to be anywhere near the peak of his physical powers. It is reasonable to wonder whether he will ever get back there.
This is one of the reasons City tend not to buy players of his age profile and opt for signings who definitely have their best years ahead of them. This cannot be said with any certainty where Kane is concerned.
Guardiola knows all about star names returning from Euro 2020 in varying states of disarray, too. Raheem Sterling has regressed to the level that saw him lose his place at City over the closing months of last season, while Kevin De Bruyne looks every inch a man battling to overcome persistent injury woes of his own.
Throw in the ongoing work to assimilate £100 million man Jack Grealish into the masterplan and Guardiola has enough big names to coax back to their best without adding another short of form and fitness who might be on a career downslope.
City need an elite striker, Guardiola has said as much himself. But before a dispiriting few days in the Carabao Cup and the Premier League, the manager’s workaround had produced utterly exhilarating displays against Club Brugge and Brighton, not to mention when his team completely outplayed Chelsea and Liverpool with a false nine last month.
Right now, Kane offers no guarantees of solving City’s problems and looks more likely to add to them.
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