It’s very difficult to know how the transfer window will unfold this summer, with all clubs suffering financial losses from playing behind closed doors for over a year.
One thing seems certain though, and that is that the potential transfer of Harry Kane could be the defining piece of transfer business of 2021.
Tottenham will not want to lose their talisman, but his sale would provide their next manager – whomever that happens to be – with funds to style the Spurs squad to their requirements.
But where will Kane go? There are not many clubs who will be able to afford the substantial sum Daniel Levy will be looking for in exchange for his contract.
The England captain has three years remaining on his current deal, so Tottenham don’t have to sell unless they are happy to do so.
Liverpool are eighth in the betting to be Kane’s club at the end of August, but they could be leading the market and it wouldn’t mean that he’d be posing at Kirkby for pictures and interviews any time soon.
The greater concern for the Reds will be how the 27-year-old’s choice of destination will impact their own hopes of success in 2021/22, as if he stays in the Premier League as expected then he will inevitably make a rival side stronger.
While ‘staying at Tottenham’ remains the most likely outcome of the saga in the eyes of the bookmakers, they believe Kane will most likely end up at one of the Manchester clubs, with Chelsea third in the running.
It’s interesting to contemplate what kind of player his next club will be getting. It has been noted by pundits and fans alike that Kane has been playing deeper this season, yet it’s only a continuation of what has been happening for a number of years now.
Since 2017/18, the proportion of his touches which have been in the penalty box has decreased year-on-year, from 20.1 percent down to 17.2, through 14.3 and onto 11.5 in 2020/21.
Where he made 37 percent of his touches in the middle third three seasons ago, in this campaign he has spent over half of his time (making 53 percent of his touches) there.
However, his total of 18 league goals from inside the penalty box is his most since 2017/18, so he’s undoubtedly still an elite threat to opposition defences once he’s on the ball within 18 yards of their goal.
And his ability to perform well in deeper areas might appeal to City, who have almost given up on the idea of using a recognised centre forward at times this season.
Pep Guardiola has selected Gabriel Jesus there 19 times in the league this season ( per WhoScored ), but Sergio Aguero has only started there six times (in part due to his injuries), with the likes of Bernardo Silva, Ferran Torres and Raheem Sterling – plus three others – getting games up front too.
The new champions have pressed with much less intensity in 2020/21, but the aforementioned players have still averaged more pressures per 90 minutes than Kane has this season ( per FBRef ).
Does he have the legs to play for a Guardiola side as he enters the second half of his career?
He may fit in better over at Old Trafford. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has generally used a 4-2-3-1 formation this season, with the spearhead duties shared by Edinson Cavani, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood (in that order, in terms of number of league starts made up front).
The Uruguayan veteran has signed on for another season, but it’s unlikely that he will start any more often than he has this season.
Martial has struggled with injuries, Rashford is more productive from the left and Greenwood is developing nicely but is still only 19-years-old. Kane could make a fine addition for United.
But despite that, it feels like Chelsea would benefit most from the addition of Kane. Thanks to penalties, Jorginho is their top scorer in the Premier League this season, and he’s only netted seven times.
Thomas Tuchel doesn’t appear to rate Tammy Abraham, as the 23-year-old has only started three league games on his watch, and he didn’t last past half time in any of them.
Timo Werner is unlikely to be as bad in front of goal next season, but Kane would likely add an air of reliability to the Blues’ front line immediately were he to sign for them.
Chelsea are the only team between Manchester City and Liverpool in the early betting to be Premier League champions in 2021/22.
As Pep Guardiola already has a system and squad he is happy with, Kane moving to west London would surely prove more disruptive to the Reds’ title hopes next term.
