The dates for the first set of presidential primaries haven't yet been set, what with writs from Florida flying around, Michigan's Republicans moving their primary forward, and a general push to end New Hampshire's "first in the nation" pole position. So far, everyone seems unhappy.
But behind-the-scenes lobbying within the Democratic party seems to be moving towards a tentative calendar that could see the candidates spending a happy New Year in Iowa. Read on....
The official plan for 2008 was for Iowa's caucuses on January 14, followed by Nevada's caucuses on January 19. Then New Hampshire would have the first real primary on January 22, followed by South Carolina's primary on January 29. The mass would then follow on February 5 and beyond.
That has been thrown into chaos by Florida moving its primary to January 29, and Michigan moving its primary to January 15. New Hampshire's constitution mandates that it must hold its primary seven days before any other primary - so it will move its poll to January 8 at the latest. South Carolina also wants to shift its primary to January 19 or earlier.
The Democratic National Committee has taken a tough line against Florida, stripping it of delegates and forbidding candidates from campaigning there. (The original move was actually made into law by Florida's Republican majority.) Now Florida Democrats are suing their party, concerned that they will lose out come the general election if there is no Democratic primary at all.
Where will it end? The deal being proposed by Democrat insiders would see Iowa's caucus on January 3 or 5, followed by New Hampshire's primary on January 8, then Nevada's caucus on January 12 and South Carolina's primary on January 19. (That would allow the DNC to slap Michigan and Florida on the wrist and still let them go on the dates in January they want.)
Consequences? The longer lead time between "Iowampshire" and the February 5 quasi-national primary (when New York, Illinois, California et al vote), means that anyone who does well in the first polls can build extra momentum. The longer gap also means weaker candidates are more likely to be forced to drop out, rather than hang on in there for a week or two, making February 5 an even bigger deal.
Anyway, it ain't over yet.
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