As we start to look ahead to the 2020 season, we can imagine some players who are going to benefit from new situations in the campaign ahead. Whether due to a new scheme, different coaching, or even some new teammates, here are some players poised to thrive in the year to come thanks to their new situations.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers
Pairing Teddy Bridgewater with new Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator Joe Brady is, on paper, a match made in heaven. The two have history together, dating back to when Brady was on the offensive staff in New Orleans under head coach Sean Payton. When Brady moved northwest to become the passing game coordinator for LSU, he brought with him an offensive scheme heavily influenced by Payton’s West Coast offense. Last year, the LSU Tigers (and assumed first-overall selection Joe Burrow) ran an offense heavy with West Coast designs right out of Payton’s playbook, while mixing in run/pass option elements and vertical shot plays downfield.
That offense is ideal for Bridgewater, and look no further than what he was asked to do last year when replacing an injured Drew Brees. During that five game stretch, Bridgewater made quick decisions, got the running backs involved in the passing game, and showed the quick decision-making that is critical to running both Payton’s offense, and Brady’s.
Take, for example, how quickly Bridgewater reads this “Pout” (post/out) concept against the Jacksonville Jaguars:
If Bridgewater hesitates at all, he is throwing his tight end Josh Hill into danger. But because Bridgewater hits his drop depth and gets the ball out, the corner cannot rotate over in time.
You can also look at this in-breaking route to Michael Thomas against the Chicago Bears:
(As an aside, some of you might have seen the NFL making their “GamePass” product available to all during these times of quarantine and isolation. Welcome, my dear friends, to the dreaded “Soldier Field All-22 Angle.”)
The QB gets the benefit of added information before the play, as pre-snap motion lets him know the Bears are in man coverage. He comes out of a play-action fake (with his back to the defense) firing on this route to Thomas working towards the middle of the field. Again, any hesitation from the quarterback here and the passing window is closed.
The view from the end zone illustrates just how quick the process is from Bridgewater:
The passer carries out the play fake and comes up throwing, without a hitch in his drop. Timing and decisiveness leading to a big gain for the offense, and it comes with Bridgewater forced to take his eyes off the defense for a second to carry out the play-fake.
Bridgewater’s fit in Brady’s offense is ideal, and it makes him a candidate for a very strong 2020.
Byron Jones, CB, Miami Dolphins
We have seen this recipe before: A Bill Belichick disciple becomes a head coach and strikes out on his own, but then tries to mold his own organization in the image of what Belichick would do. But Brian Flores down in Miami has done a great job of assembling players ideal to run a man coverage, pressure defense scheme. Byron Jones, the talented man coverage corner with the versatility to play safety, is ideal for this defense.
Belichick is a firm believer in single-high coverage, and leaving talented cornerbacks on an island with wide receivers and playing matchups in the secondary as much as possible. One of Belichick’s favorite things to do is to take his best coverage corner and put him on the offense’s second wide receiver, and then take his CB2 and put him on the top WR with dedicated safety help. Now with Xavien Howard and Jones, Flores can do the same with his secondary, with the flexibility of having two corners to tailor those matchups based on their skillsets. Howard might match up better with the more traditional X receivers, given his long speed, while Jones has more change-of-direction ability, so he might be a better matchup for Z and even slot type receivers. Either way Flores sees it, he is in position to tailor his coverages to what his talented duo of corners does best.
That will put Jones in position to have a very good 2020 campaign.
Austin Hooper, TE, Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns made a number of wise moves – and we will get to one more in a minute – but the addition of Austin Hooper has to be near the top. Kevin Stefanski last season with the Minnesota Vikings relied heavily on 12 offensive personnel, running that package on 35 percent of their offensive snaps. Only the Philadelphia Eagles ran 12 personnel more as a percentage of their plays, using it 54 percent of the time. What does this mean? It means that the Browns will face a lot of “base” defenses when they use this group.
That bodes well for Hooper. While he has struggled at times to win against one-on-one man coverage, the usage of 12 personnel will give him some advantageous matchups. He will see more linebackers and safeties in coverage, giving him the chance to find space and run away from such defenders. That, plus having Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry on the outside, and his potential running mate in David Njoku, will give him a ton of targets next season. Plus, Stefanski loves to use play-action designs working off of outside zone run fakes, getting the tight end involved either in the flat or on crossing routes. That is exactly the type of offense Hooper has been used in the past few seasons.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
I still cannot believe that the Houston Texans made this move…
But from DeAndre Hopkins’s position, this is a great opportunity to flourish in a different offensive system. Bill O’Brien relied heavily on play-action designs and vertical concepts, and ran the football on 42 percent of Houston’s offensive snaps last season. However, they also mixed in some spread and some empty formations last year, as a way to get Deshaun Watson some quick reads and to create some mismatches and opportunities for Hopkins:
Take note of the coverage over Hopkins. Atlanta shows a Cover 4 alignment pre-snap with a safety giving Hopkins a ton of cushion. Watson spots this before the play, and comes right to Hopkins on a quick post route that the QB throws with pretty good timing and anticipation.
This kind of spread offense is what Hopkins will be entering next season with the Cardinals. Under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona has been a spread-heavy, 10 personnel team that plays with tempo and throws the ball a ton. Last year they threw the ball on 60.4 percent of their offensive plays, putting them in the top half of the league and certainly more than the Texans. Kingsbury is going to spread the defense out, create space by alignment and mismatches by formation, and he is going to attack through the air. The offense is going to look a lot like the above example, and Hopkins is going to see a ton of targets as a result. Especially if they select a wide receiver with that eighth-overall selection.
Kyle Van Noy, OLB, Miami Dolphins
Similar to the discussion around cornerback Byron Jones, Van Noy is going to flourish down in Miami with his former defensive play-caller Brian Flores. Flores, during his time in New England with the Patriots, saw first-hand how Van Noy could be a game-changing player in the NFL. By moving him to an outside, off-ball linebacker spot, the Patriots played to Van Noy’s strengths as a player. He can rush the passer and collapse the pocket off the edge, he can set the edge against the run, and he can drop into coverage and impact the passing game in underneath zones.
But by moving to Miami, Van Noy will also be in position to benefit from what the Dolphins have done – and will likely do in the draft – to their defensive front. Bill Belichick has often shied away from paying a premium for pass rushers, as well as drafting them on Day One. Miami, by contrast, is moving in a different direction. They signed two pass rushers in free agency (Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah) and many draft writers anticipate that they will use one of their three first-round picks on another pass rusher, perhaps K’Lavon Chaisson from LSU. That is a much different – and more talented – defensive front than Van Noy was operating behind last year in New England.
As a result? More opportunities for him to wreck havoc on opposing pockets.
O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
So perhaps we are bending the rules here a bit, but bear with me.
Tom Brady is taking his talents south, joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Two players who stand to benefit greatly from this move are tight end O.J. Howard and receiver Chris Godwin.
Think back to Brady’s time in New England. Two positions were heavily targeted by the veteran passer during his time in Foxborough: The tight end, and the slot receiver. That leads us to these two players.
We can start with Howard. Tight end have not, historically, been huge pieces of a Bruce Arians offense. Last year Howard saw 53 targets – which was a career high – but he had 34 receptions for 459 and just a single touchdown. His yards per reception fell from 16.6 (which it was for both of his first two years in the league) down to 13.5, and his yards per target cratered from 11.8 last year to just 8.7. But Brady loves to throw to the tight ends, even when Rob Gronkowski is no longer there. Even last year, with New England having a black hole at the tight end position, Brady targeted them 54 times.
Then there is Godwin, who spent 62.6 percent of his snaps in the slot last year. We all know what slot receivers have meant to Brady over the years, from Wes Welker to Julian Edelman. Now Godwin is likely to assume that mantle. A year ago Godwin saw 121 targets in just 14 games, up from 95 in 2018. Edelman? He saw 153 last year, 108 (in just 12 games) in 2018, and 159 in 2017. Godwin is going to see a ton of targets as well.
And now both of these players are going to have the greatest quarterback of all time throwing to them.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
That’s great. Go ahead, make your jokes mister jokey…joke-maker. But hear me out.
Josh Allen certainly struggled in a rather surprising area last season: The vertical passing game. According to Pro Football Focus charting, he ranked 23rd of 24 qualifying passers in Adjusted Completion Percentage on deep throws (defined as throws 20 yards or more downfield). His NFL passer rating on such attempts was just 64.4 (which ranked him 20th among qualified passers) and he threw just four touchdowns against three interceptions. Those…are not great numbers.
They are also surprising. Coming out of the University of Wyoming he was known for his arm strength and his prowess in the vertical passing game. Anyone who studied him, including this author, believed he was best suited in a vertical passing game. But that part of his game faded away last year. Even more surprising, Allen became more of a timing- and rhythm-based passer. Under Brian Daboll, he made huge strides in this area. Take this play against the New York Jets:
On this fourth quarter throw Allen throws a deep curl route from the left hashmark to the right sideline. Looking at the moment he releases this ball, his target is starting his break back down the stem. The timing and rhythm on this play is perfect, and when you add the cushion Brown has from the nearest defender, it is again impossible to stop this completion.
But the deep passing is a concern, and that is where Stefon Diggs comes into play. Acquired by the Bills via trade, Diggs was one of the top vertical receivers last year. He saw 29 targets of 20 yards or more a season ago, according to PFF’s charting data, tying him with DeVante Parker and Allen Robinson for third in the league (behind Kenny Golladay and Odell Beckham Jr.). On those 29 targets, Diggs had 16 receptions for 635 yards and six touchdowns. Those six scoring plays were the most from any receiver on vertical throws last year. Diggs is a downfield threat in the passing game, and pairing him with John Brown and Cole Beasley, as well as emerging tight end Dawson Knox, gives the Bills a complete arsenal of receiving threats.
It also gives Allen a downfield target that he might, just might, get on the same page with.
Nick Foles, QB, Chicago Bears
Perhaps the trade for Nick Foles by the Chicago Bears reflects a bit of panic, or desperation, from general manager Ryan Pace. Having traded up in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft to select quarterback Mitchell Trubisky – with both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson on the board – Pace now faces a closing contention window with nothing to show for it but an embattled quarterback on his rookie deal.
With the seat getting hot and the Chicago media circling, Pace needed to address quarterback this off-season. Rather than acquire a player like Marcus Mariota via free agency, or a Andy Dalton via trade, Pace looked to Foles, a former Super Bowl Champion coming off a season largely lost to a collarbone injury.
Despite this looking like a move born out of desperation, Foles is a very good schematic fit for Matt Nagy’s offense. Nagy’s system is almost identical to what Foles ran under Doug Pederson in Philadelphia, which makes sense. Both Nagy and Pederson are branches off the Andy Reid coaching tree. This shows up on film as well. Here is Foles making a quick read to throw the wheel route out of the backfield:
Now look at this throw from Trubisky to Tarik Cohen out of the backfield:
The designs are a little different, as the Chicago Bears use play-action here, but the general concept is the same. In-breaking routes create space for the running back’s wheel route along the sideline.
Foles will be intimately familiar with Nagy’s playbook, and there will be minimal learning curve for him. In an environment when OTAs and training camp could potentially be delayed or compressed, having a quarterback ready to step in on day one is a huge benefit. Foles can do that. Pace might have panicked a bit, but in the end he might just have found the right quarterback for Nagy’s offense.
Andy Janovich, FB, Cleveland Browns
You probably did not expect to see a fullback on this list, but here we are friends.
When discussing Austin Hooper we outlined how Kevin Stefanski relied heavily on 12 and 21 offensive personnel last year with the Minnesota Vikings. Last year the Vikings used 21 offensive personnel on 26 percent of their snaps, a whopping 217 offensive plays. Only the San Francisco 49ers (with fullback Kyle Juszczyk) used that personnel package more.
But Vikings’ fullback C.J. Ham was not just another big body on the field. Stefanski got him involved as both a runner and a receiver. Ham saw 26 targets in the passing game last year, second behind Dalvin Cook among Vikings’ running backs. He pulled in 17 of those passes for 149 yards and a touchdown, averaging 8.8 yards per reception.
Last year with the Broncos, Janovich was used more as a blocker. He saw just five targets in the passing game over seven games, and for his career he has seen just 28 total targets, two shy (over four years) of what Ham saw in 2019 alone.
Fullbacks are back, baby, especially in Cleveland.
Darius Slay, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Darius Slay struggled in 2019, of that there is no doubt. He gave up 14.1 yards per reception, and according to grading from Pro Football Focus his coverage grade of just 56.9 was his worst since his rookie year, and that placed Slay 92nd in the NFL among cornerbacks.
But do not be fooled by recent history. Slay can still play, and he can be the man coverage cornerback the Eagles desperately need. He has 82 pass breakups since 2015, more than any other cornerback in the NFL. He has a great ability to click-and-close on the catch point, which leads to that high number of PBUs.
That fits extremely well with how Jim Schwartz uses his cornerbacks. Schwartz loves to keep his cornerbacks in off-man coverage alignments. Giving up short throws, preventing against vertical routes, and trusting his corners to break on the ball and disrupt at the catch point.
Such a playing style is ideal for Slay’s skill-set. Look at this series of plays from Slay put together by Eagles’ writer Michael Kist, paying particular attention to the Pick Six and the PBU against the Cardinals:
Slay’s ability to drive on the catchpoint is ideal for Schwartz’s coverage schemes. He is in position to have a huge rebound in 2020.
D.J. Reader, NT, Cincinnati Bengals
A few different teams made additions to their defensive fronts that are going to pay huge dividends. Largely because of the pairings they will be able to implement up front. The final three players on this list are all examples of this idea. We can start with D.J. Reader, who joined the Cincinnati Bengals from the Houston Texans. Reader might be a bit of a rare breed in today’s NFL, a traditional 3-4 nose tackle. But he’ll be joining the Bengals and their base 4-3 front. While “base” packages in today’s game tend to be sub-packages, given how often offenses use 11 offensive personnel, Cincinnati still uses a NT in their four-man front.
Right now that is Andrew Billings. You can drop Reader into that position, and now he’ll have three great running mates in Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard. That is a pretty solid group that the Bengals are putting together. Furthermore, Billings saw 61 percent of the Bengals’ defensive snaps last year, while Reader saw 58 percent of Houston’s. Reader should see more playing time, and while he won’t have J.J. Watt to run with, he has three solid running mates.
Calais Campbell, DE, Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens added a ton of help up front for their defense, signing Michael Brockers via free agency and adding Calais Campbell via a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Campbell had just 6.5 sacks a year ago, down from the 10.5 he posted in 2018 and his career-high of 14.5 during Jacksonville’s 2017 run to the AFC Championship Game.
He might not be the player he once was, given his age and experience, but he will find himself in a very favorable setting to boost those sack numbers in 2020. He’ll have running mates such as Brockers, Matt Judon, Pernell McPhee and Jaylon Ferguson. Additionally, the Ravens finished 14-2 last season, and with so many of their pieces back, you can expect Baltimore to have another successful year. The Ravens also had a number of blowout wins, which put their pass rushers in position to capitalize on favorable game scripts. They could just pin their ears back and get after the passer, forgetting about stopping the run.
That is the environment that Campbell finds himself in for 2020. He will have some great players around him that will command double-teams, that will given him some one-on-one opportunities. He’ll be playing in some blowouts or otherwise favorable game situations for rushing the passer. He should add to those sack totals in 2020.
A’Shawn Robinson, DL, Los Angeles Rams
There are a handful of true game-changers along the interior offensive line in today’s NFL. Aaron Donald with the Los Angeles Rams is certainly one such player. He can impact a game in a variety of ways, which is something I learned preparing for Super Bowl LII. Just take a few moments and pour through this tread of Donald destroying worlds (and me getting more and more nauseous along the way):
Donald’s ability to win one-on-ones in the interior forces teams to slide their protection schemes towards him and/or double-team him, creating favorable matchups on the backside.
Enter A’Shawn Robinson. Selected by the Detroit Lions in the second round of the 2016 draft, Robinson has been more of a run stuffer than anything else during his time in the Motor City. His best year was probably the 2018 season, when he posted a grade of 91.3 against the run according to Pro Football Focus, notching a career-high 40 tackles.
But with this move west, he’ll have a running mate unlike any other in the league. He will be able to capitalize on favorable matchups and lots of one-on-one opportunities, with opposing offensive lines placing most of their focus on Donald. Robinson should thrive with the increased opportunities that result.
