Afternoon summary
- Junior doctors are to go on strike again on three dates, each taking place over 48 hours, the British Medical Association (BMA) said. As the Press Association reports, the doctors’ union also announced that it is to seek a judicial review into the government’s plans to impose new contracts. The dates planned for industrial action are from 8am on Wednesday March 9 to 8am on Friday March 11, from 8am on Wednesday April 6 to 8am on Friday April 8, and from 8am on Tuesday April 26 to 8am on Thursday April 28. The strike action will not affect emergency services.
- Tony Blair, the former prime minister, has spoken out against “populist” responses to the terror threat from both the far right and far left, which he said had delivered “solutions that make a tweet but not a policy”. In comments seemed directed at Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and at US Republican presidential contenders like Donald Trump, Blair lamented a “polarisation” of debate on both sides of the Atlantic which he said had undermined serious policy making. Speaking in Washington at the launch of a new Commission on Countering Violent Extremism which he will co-chair he said:
There are those on the left who want us to dis-engage, who believe that our policies are largely the cause of this extremism and that if we leave well alone, it will resolve itself. There are those on the right who believe Islam itself is the problem, thus in a strange way affirming the position of the extremists that the West and Islam are in immutable conflict with each other.
This polarisation of the debate is mirrored both sides of the Atlantic and the casualty is serious policy making. Both far left and far right come together in advocating solutions that make a tweet but not a policy.
We need a new approach - what I might term a more muscular centrist one - which in a sense is a synthesis of the lessons of the whole period since 9/11 and can unify our people behind it. We require a combination of military and security capability to counter the violence; together with a deep strategy to counter the ideology of extremism which breeds it.
- The GMB union has published research showing that workers in sectors such as leisure and caring have seen their pay fall by more than 15% in real terms since the recession. It said that pay has not recovered for many professions since 2008. Average earnings for all workers are 13.4% below pre-recession levels, it said.Ambulance staff have suffered a 19% fall in real time earnings, cleaners and sales assistants 18%, bar staff 15%, hospital porters 11%, refuse staff 10%, postal workers 9%, farm workers 8% and window cleaners 6%.
- Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan police commissioner, has told MPs he will not be “bullied” into apologising to Lord Bramall after the D-Day veteran was embroiled in Scotland Yard’s inquiry into VIP paedophile allegations. Hogan-Howe refused to say sorry to the 92-year-old, whose home was raided while he had breakfast with his terminally ill wife. Given evidence to the home affairs committee Hogan-Howe expressed “regret” over the episode but repeatedly refused to apologise. When the Tory Tim Loughton referred to the “media circus” surrounding the case, Hogan-Howe replied:
Ah the media circus. If what you mean is that you want me to be bullied into apologising then that won’t happen.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
The Office for National Statistics has published figures today on household disposable income and inequality. They confirm that since the financial crash there has been a slight decrease in overall income inequality, largely because the rich lost proportionately more of their income during the recession.
These are useful figures for David Cameron when he is challenged on inequality, although more recent developments are pushing inequality in the opposite direction.
This is from the ONS statistical bulletin (pdf).
The median disposable income of the richest fifth of households fell the most following the economic downturn (7.9% between 2007/08 and 2012/13). Since then it has increased, but in 2014/15 remained £2,000 (3.2%) below its previous peak after accounting for inflation and household composition. The poorest fifth of households were the only group whose average income did not fall between 2007/08 and 2012/13 and in 2014/15 the average income of this group was £700 (5.8%) above its 2007/08 value.
Estimates of income inequality for 2014/15 are broadly unchanged from those for the previous financial year (any differences are not statistically significant). Since 2007/08, there has been a slight decrease in overall income inequality on a range of measures, although from a longer-term perspective, income inequality remains above levels seen in the early 1980s.
And here is the key chart. Looking at income groups by quintile (poorest 20%, next poorest 20% etc), the light blue line shows changes in disposable income from 2007/08 to 2012/13, the dark blue line changes from 2012/13 to 2014/15 and the cross changes from 2007/08 to 2014/15.
Economist Intelligence Unit says Brexit would trigger 'economic and political turmoil'
The Economist Intelligence Unit, which provides political and market analysis for business and others, has issued an updated assessment of the costs of Brexit.
It says that it expects Britain to vote to remain in the EU.
It has long been our view that voters’ fears about leaving the EU will rise as the referendum approaches and that the economic arguments in favour of staying in will prevail. We also believe that Mr Cameron’s support for staying in the EU will influence the voting intentions of a significant proportion of the electorate.
But, if Britain were to vote to leave the EU, “this would trigger economic and political turmoil albeit largely in the short term”, it says.
Uncertainty would lead to financial market volatility, affecting investment decisions and undermining growth.
The longer-term impact of Brexit would depend on the details of the exit agreement decided on by the UK and the EU. We would expect a Norway-style relationship with free trade in goods, but not services. Overall, the UK would remain an attractive business environment.
An important short-term political implication would be that David Cameron’s position as prime minister would become untenable, leading to his resignation.
Specifically, it says the value of the pound would fall sharply after Brexit.
We expect the currency to depreciate in the run-up to the referendum, but a Brexit result would prompt a sharp sell-off, driven by an assessment of the potential costs involved in leaving the EU. Investors would be concerned that a likely flight of capital and labour would impair the economy, undermining the UK’s “safe haven” status.
And it says that even in the longterm the effects on the economy would be negative.
The UK’s political capital is likely to be running low in a Brexit situation, and we would expect access to the services markets to be off-limits. This would damage the ability of the UK’s financial sector to provide services to EU markets, and companies that rely on this would probably relocate. We would also expect a sizeable drop off in foreign direct investment (FDI) from companies that view the UK as a gateway to Europe. This would involve a loss of typical spillover effects from FDI, such as new working practices and new technologies. It will also make it more difficult for the UK to finance its current-account deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, we would expect a further deterioration in the UK’s international investment position, raising the risks to financial stability.
In the longer term, the UK remains an attractive business environment. The short-term economic costs of a Brexit vote are likely to be significant, but we would expect economic growth to recover over the medium to long term, albeit to a level below our current baseline forecast for real GDP. Cities such as Frankfurt and Paris are keen to displace London as the financial centre of Europe, but London should retain its status as a strong international financial centre by virtue of language, time zone and an existing concentration of interconnected businesses. It may even gain a competitive edge through its ability to repeal some EU regulation. Structural features such as a flexible labour market and a broadly pro-business policy orientation would also help the UK to remain an attractive destination for inward investment. However, these features would be set against a wider and more persistent current-account deficit, and a loss of skilled labour from the EU, which would undermine the recovery in productivity.
Here’s the Guardian’s guide to how Tory MPs will vote in the EU referendum.
Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the six ministers attending cabinet who is voting for Brexit, was on the World at One earlier. She rejected claims that controls would have to be introduced at the Ireland/Northern Ireland border if Britain chose to leave the EU.
That’s not inevitable at all. We’ve always had a much closer relationship with the citizens of the Republic of Ireland than with the rest of the EU. It’s perfectly possible to maintain that free movement with Irish citizens. After all we give them privileges in the UK which we accord to no other EU citizens, like the right to vote in our elections ...
I don’t think anyone should assume that border checks should be introduced as a result of a UK exit. We are in the area of scare stories. We do need to recognise that the relationship between the UK and Ireland when it comes to this common travel area is decades older than our EU membership and doesn’t depend on it.
We’ve run an effective common travel area for many decades with the Republic of Ireland and there’s every reason to suggest that that would continue whether we leave the EU or we don’t. It’s manifestly in our interests to ensure that ease of passage across the border between North and South is as easy as possible. No-one is wanting to wind the clock back and to introduce the kind of security checks at the border that there were during the Troubles.
She also rejected the suggestion from Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuiness, Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister, that she should resign because she was campaigning for Brexit. When this was put to her she replied:
I think it’s perfectly reasonable for me to have chosen a side in this referendum. The great thing is that every single person in the UK, including in Northern Ireland, will get to take this decision, not just the secretary of state.
Lunchtime summary
- David Cameron has insisted Boris Johnson is still one of his great friends who has simply “got it wrong” on the issue of the EU referendum by declaring he wants the UK to leave. As Rowena Mason reports, the prime minister was pressed on their personal relationship after he launched ablistering attack on Monday on Johnson’s idea that a vote to leave the EU could lead to a further negotiation and second referendum. Speaking at the headquarters of O2 in Slough, Cameron said he “understands” Johnson’s decision but he was disappointed and strongly believes it was the wrong conclusion.
- The bosses of some of Britain’s top companies, including budget airline easyJet, defence contractor BAE Systems and oil group Shell, have signed a letter in support of the UK remaining inside the European Union. The letter is signed by the chair or chief executive of about a third of the businesses on the FTSE 100 index of Britain’s largest stockmarket-listed companies.
- Boris Johnson has dismissed claims about the danger of Brexit as alarmist. Speaking to journalists this morning, he said:
Of course there will be people who try to spread alarm, anxiety. We had much the same sort of thing when the decision came whether or not to join the euro, and indeed 20 years ago whether or not to leave the ERM. And on both occasions all those same people were wrong.
We’ve got a great opportunity now to strike new deals, for Britain to be the hub of new trading arrangements around the world and to have a fantastic new future. So that’s what I’m going for.
He also played down a warning from William Hague, the former foreign secretary, that a divisive EU referendum contest could damage the Conservative party for a generation. He said the party had a “much better team spirit” than in the 1990s. (See 11.53am.)
- Sir Michael Wilshaw, the head of Ofsted, has urged Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, not to recruit his successor from abroad. As the Press Association reports, recent reports have indicated that Morgan is considering candidates from the US, Canada and northern Europe to replace Sir Michael Wilshaw when he stands down from Ofsted in December. Asked if Morgan should pick a “home-grown” successor, Wilshaw told the BBC:
I would but then that’s not up to me.
At the end of the day this is up to the secretary of state and the Department for Education. All I can say is we have very little to learn from America. They don’t do as well as we do in the Pisa tables, the OECD tables. We’ve got a lot of talent in this country that I’m sure could do a good job as Ofsted’s chief inspector.
- CND has announced that Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, will address an anti-Trident demonstration in London on Saturday. Tens of thousands of people are expected to attend.
- Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, has announced that Crossrail will be named the Elizabeth line in honour of the Queen when it opens in 2018.
Updated
Liz Truss, the environment secretary, has told the National Farmers’ Union conference that leaving the EU would be bad for the industry. She told them:
At a time of severe price volatility and global market uncertainty, I believe it would be wrong to take a leap into the dark. The years of complication and risk caused by negotiating withdrawal would be a distraction from our efforts to build a world-leading food and farming industry that brings jobs and growth to Britain.
Here’s the full story.
Number 10 has released the text of a letter (pdf) Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, has sent to permanent secretaries today clarifying what civil servants can do in relation to the EU referendum.
It confirms that ministers who want to argue for Brexit will not get civil service support. Here’s an extract.
It will not be appropriate or permissible for the civil service to support ministers who oppose the government’s official position by providing briefing or speech material on this matter. This includes access to official departmental papers, excepting papers that ministers have previously seen on issues relating to the referendum question prior to the suspension of collective agreement. These rules will apply also to their special advisers.
Cameron launches pro-EU roadshow - Snap summary and analysis
You can tell when there’s an election on because journalists have to get on a train and head out of London. This morning David Cameron took them to Slough. The Q&A may have looked like a relatively routine PM Direct event - Cameron strutting a makeshift stage, jacket off, with workers listening with just a modicum of interest/respect - but this was the start of what Number 10 says will be a campaign roadshow, as the prime minister takes to the country to make the case of Britain remaining in Europe.
In any campaign the stump speech is important. You might not think so, because journalists almost never report them. The stump speech is the one a politician repeats over and over and over again, at different locations, setting out his or her key campaign message. They rarely make the news because they are not new, and reporters end up getting so bored by them that they treat them with disdain, but they encapsulate the two or three arguments that leaders hope will eventually permeate into the minds of people with only limited interest in what political figures do and say (ie, most people).
Today Cameron set out his “stump speech”. (See from 11.56am to 12.05pm.) It is about how Britain would be stronger, safer and better off remaining in the EU. It is not the most sophisticated or uplifting campaign message, but it is coherent and not obviously untrue.
Crucially, the In camp have a stump speech. The Out camp don’t. There are plenty of intelligent and articulate fight on the Leave side, but there is no consensus as to how best they should fight the campaign and some of their messages are contradictory.
Cameron also looked like someone who was enjoying himself, and who was confident in what he had to say. That helps.
As for what he said, regular readers will be familiar with the arguments in the stump speech because Cameron has been fine-tuning them for the last four days. (Today was not the first time he had made the “stronger, safer, better off” case; just the first time he tested it on an audience of ordinary voters). But there were some more novel lines in the Q&A. Here they are.
- Cameron said Boris Johnson had a “very strong future” in British politics and a lot to give to the country. He also said he hoped the debate about the EU would be “reasonable” and “civilised”. His comment about Johnson sounded like an attempt to patch up relations after his hatchet job on the London mayor in the Commons yesterday and Cameron seemed to be hinting that Johnson’s decision to back Brexit would not stop him being offered a cabinet job later this year. Cameron said:
I have huge respect for Boris as a politician. He is a great friend of mine, he is a fantastic Mayor of London, I think he has a lot to give to the Conservative party, I think he has a lot to give to this country.
But on this issue I think he has got it wrong.
We are going to have, I hope, a very reasonable, civilised argument between us and between other parties and you are going to find people with some fairly strange bedfellows. This is one where Jeremy Corbyn and I agree.
- Cameron said that anyone unsure of how to vote in the referendum should back the status quo because staying in the EU guaranteed safety and security.
We all feel quite conflicted. In all of us there is a questioning about ‘what’s the right answer for Britain’.
I would say for anyone who is finding it hard to make up your mind, and you feel it is a very balanced decision, I would say come down on the side of security and safety and certainty.
- He said that, although only a third of FTSE 100 leaders had signed today’s letter saying Britain should stay in the EU, the Leave campaign would be delighted to have this support.
If the leave campaign could produce 35 business leaders of this sort of stature they’d be over the moon and I don’t think they have the prospect of doing that with FTSE 100 leaders in any way.
- Cameron said being prime minister for the last six years had given him a better appreciation of how the EU contributes to Britain’s security. As the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn points out, some, but not all, Tory ministers have gone through a similar mental transition.
Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) February 23, 2016
- Cameron claimed that Britain could have to wait for up to two years after voting to leave the EU before it could start negotiating trade deals with other countries. This delay could be damaging to business, he said.
- He said the Treasury and the Bank of England would publish reports on the economic implications of Brexit.
- He said the EU referendum was a “once in a generation” decision. It was more important than a general election, he said.
I would argue this is a much bigger decision because at election times you can vote in a team of people and if you’ve got fed up with them after five years you can vote them out.
This is a decision that lasts for life. We make this decision and it is probably going to be the only time in our generation when we make this decision.
Updated
This is what happened when David Cameron opened the event saying it was great to be in Slough.
Cameron, of course, when to school not far from Slough, although that is not the town normally associated with his alma mater; it’s closer to Windsor.
Cameron says the idea that business is divided into firms that export and firms that don’t is out of date, he says.
He says many firms are dependent on supplying firms that do export.
He says in theory leaving the EU could result in firms that do not export not be required to comply with EU rules.
But he says this would not suit firms looking to expand.
And that’s it. The Q&A is over.
I’ll post a summary soon.
Cameron says in other countries the telecoms industry is still dominated by big, national-owned companies. It is important for Britain to be in the EU to help push through rules that encourage more competition, he says.
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is offering a running commentary on Cameron’s performance on Twitter.
Very large number of businesses refusing to back EU membership. EU deal is a disaster. Global future outside EU. https://t.co/g9Kt4hQjeh
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 23, 2016
Up to 5,000 jihadists in Europe after training with Islamic State. EU open borders make us less safe. https://t.co/FBVBeHLpIH
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 23, 2016
Look at the number of German motorcars on British roads. Get real @David_Cameron! Our trade will thrive once we leave EU.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 23, 2016
European Arrest Warrant means Brits can be locked up abroad with neither evidence nor trial. Disaster for British liberty.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 23, 2016
At the same time we can't deport terrorists because of bonkers European human rights laws that @David_Cameron seeks to maintain.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 23, 2016
Mr. Cameron copying line out of Nick Clegg's playbook on 3 million jobs myth. Desperate stuff! British workers will be better off outside EU
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 23, 2016
Cameron says anyone unsure of how to vote should take safe option and back Remain
Q: How did you find out Boris Johnson would back Brexit? Were you irritated?
Cameron says he has had many conversations with Johnson about this over the last few weeks. They have exchanged text messages too. He says he was disappointed. But if you are not certain, you should back the side that offers the safety and security of what we know.
Even if you think the future outside the EU would be better (which he doesn’t think, he says), the transition period would be difficult.
There is a real danger of job losses, he says.
And he says if Britain is not in the single market, there is a danger of the single market countries ganging up against you.
Recently the EU tried to introduce a law saying banks doing complex deals in euros had to be in the Eurozone. Britain blocked that, he says. And the new deal offers protections against that.
But if Britain were outside the EU, it could not stop that.
- Cameron says anyone unsure of how to vote should vote to stay in the EU, because the status quo guarantees safety and security.
- He says EU countries would discriminate against Britain if Britain left.
Cameron says companies have to get statement like this approved by their boards.
- Cameron says Leave campaign would be “over the moon” if it could get 35 FTSE 100 leaders to back Brexit.
Cameron says today’s letter from business leaders is significant. It is not easy for companies to make an explicit commitment like this, he says.
Cameron says Johnson has 'very strong future' in British politics
Q: [From ITV] William Hague is warning today about the danger of Tory splits. Yesterday when you said you had no other agenda we all know you were talking about Boris Johnson. Will you admit that?
Cameron says he wants people to know that he has thought about this greatly. He says Europe is more important to Britain’s security than he thought it was 10 years ago.
In the past he thought Nato and Britain’s relationship with America were what mattered most, he suggests.
But now he has seen what the EU can do to protect security, he says.
He says Boris Johnson is a great friend of his. He thinks Johnson has a lot to contribute to the Conservative party. But on this he thinks Johnson is wrong.
There will be some strange bedfellows in this debate, he says. He says he agrees with Jeremy Corbyn on this.
He says anyone unsure of how to vote should come down on the side of safety and security.
Those who want to leave are not spelling out what they want. They are not sure what relationship they want with the EU.
But they are not even sure how they want to leave, or if they want to leave at all. Some think there could be a second referendum.
He says he has huge respect for Johnson. He has a “very strong future” in British politics. But on this one, he’s wrong.
- Cameron says that Boris Johnson has a “very strong future” in British politics and that he is a great friend. This suggests that Johnson’s decision to back Brexit does not mean he will not be offered a cabinet job later this year.
- Cameron says being prime minister for the last six years has given him a better appreciation of how the EU contributes to Britain’s security.
Cameron says the EU would become more protectionist, and less open, if Britain left.
Britain might have the illusion of more sovereignty. But it would not have more power.
Cameron says Britain might have to wait two years to start negotiating trade deals if it left the EU
Cameron is now taking questions.
Q: The pound has fallen against the dollar. What do you think the impact of the referendum will be? And what will you do about that?
Cameron says it is best not to comment on daily market movements.
But the government will comment on what the impact of Brexit would be.
He says leaving the EU could have a bad effect on the economy. The Treasury and the Bank of England should spell out the details, he says.
He says Britain would have two years to leave the EU. While it was negotiating Brexit, it could not start striking trade deals with other countries.
He says there would be uncertainty for business.
He says he is pleased that O2 has come out today to warn about the dangers of Brexit.
And he cites the letter signed by business leaders saying Britain should stay in.
- Cameron says Britain might have to wait two years to start negotiating trade deals if it left the EU.
Cameron says Britain has the best of both worlds now.
He says he has no other agenda. He is not standing for prime minister again.
He is just going to spend the next four months arguing for Britain to stay in the EU.
It will be for the people to decide.
But his “strong advice” is that Britain should stay in, he says.
Cameron says it is important to consider the alternatives too.
He says he has looked at the alternative models.
The UK could copy Norway. But it has to sign up to EU rules to get access to the single market, without having a say in writing those rules.
He says Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has said Britain could just go for a World Trade Organisation model - relying on WTO rules to determine trade relationships. But that would mean tariffs being imposed on cars sold to other EU countries, he says.
Cameron says the EU also enables Britain to work together dealing with other countries, for example standing up to President Putin, or dealing with Somalian pirates.
We are stronger, safer and better off in the EU, he says.
Cameron says being in the EU helps to keep Britain safer. He says as prime minister he has seen time and time again how that has happened.
As an example, he says one of the 7/7 bombers escaped Britain after the attack. Using the European arrest warrant, Britain was able to get him returned quickly. He is now serving a 40-year sentence, he says. He says previously it would have taken much longer to extradite him.
Cameron says the single market is not just good for jobs; it is good for consumers too, because it drives down prices. He cites the example of mobile phone roaming charges.
He says we are better off in Europe.
Three million jobs are related to the EU, he says.
He says he is not arguing that all those jobs would go if we were to leave the EU. But we would be better off, he says again.
This is from the BBC’s James Landale.
David Cameron in campaign mode in Slough. (You can tell cos he's taken his jacket off...) pic.twitter.com/0CE33GXTby
— James Landale (@BBCJLandale) February 23, 2016
Cameron is summarising the achievements of his EU renegotiation.
He is not saying he has solved all Britain’s problems with Europe, or all Europe’s problems.
But this is a good basis on which Britain should take a decision about the EU, he says.
David Cameron's Q&A with workers on the EU referendum
David Cameron is starting his Q&A with workers on the EU referendum. He is at a telecoms firm in Slough.
He says this is a bigger decision than a general election. After an election, you can vote people out.
This is a decision that lasts for life.
There is a live feed of the session at the top of this blog.
Updated
Boris Johnson says Tories will unite behind Cameron after the EU referendum
Boris Johnson was doorstepped by the BBC outside his home this morning. He said that he had “no doubt” that the Conservative party would unite behind David Cameron after the referendum. It had a “much better team spirit” than in the 1990s, he said.
I think one of the big differences between now and what I remember back in the 1990s is the Conservative party has a much better team spirit, a much better feeling about all this before. I’ve got absolutely no doubt that after this is over the Tory party is going to unite again around David Cameron’s leadership.
Asked if he was opposing membership of the EU because of his own personal ambitions, he sidestepped the question, saying the crucial thing was to focus on the issues that mattered to the British people.
At the Treasury committee Dr Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, told MPs that a weaker pound and the possibility of a Brexit could hit growth.
It is possible at some point that increased uncertainty from foreign exchange investors also ends up manifesting itself in increased uncertainty by households and businesses which may, or may not, delay or reduce their spending. So far we haven’t seen very clear evidence of that, but we are watching very carefully.
Quarter of Labour members would leave party if Corbyn removed as leader, poll suggests
Ian Warren, an elections specialist who writes the Election Data blog and tweets as @election_data, has commissioned some polling on the views of Labour party members from YouGov. He published the first tranche yesterday, and it showed that the issues that are important to party members are not the same as those that are important to voters at large.
Today Warren has published the second slab of data, looking at what members think of leadership issues. Here are some of the main points.
- Jeremy Corbyn retains considerable support amongst Labour members, even though the public at large are more likely to disapprove than approve of him. By a large margin ordinary voters think Labour is unlikely to win the election under Corbyn. Labour members are divided on this, but those who think the party is likely to win under Corbyn outnumber those who don’t.
- Almost a quarter of Labour members say they would leave the party if Corbyn were removed from office before the next election.
- John McDonnell would have a clear lead on first preferences in a leadership ballot without Corbyn. Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, would come second, and Tom Watson, the deputy leader, would come third. Warren does not disclose who would win in the final ballot. But McDonnell would only get the support of 40% of members who voted for Corbyn in September and his first preference score (29%) is not massively bigger than Benn’s (20%) or Watson’s (17%). The findings suggests that it is not inevitable that McDonnell would become leader if Corbyn were to “fall under a bus”, as Ken Livingstone recently claimed.
Updated
Bank of England governor says EU referendum has weakened the pound
Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, is giving evidence to the Commons Treasury committee. My colleague Graeme Wearden is covering the hearing. Carney has not said much about the EU referendum, because he is giving evidence to the committee about that in a separate session next month, but he did say the EU referendum had contributed to the fall in the pound. Graeme reports:
Mark Carney says he agrees, adding that the recent fall in the pound is partly due to the EU referendum [reminder, it hit a seven year low on Monday].
Carney addes that the Bank “will take the exchange rate as given” --[ie, it will not make predictions about the referendum result, and its impact on sterling].
And Carney said the markets were taking measures to insure themselves against the risk of sterling falling.
We don’t make forecasts about the future value of the pound as part of the model, Carney says.
But he then points to the recent volatility in the foreign exchange and options markets, as investors brace for the In-Out referendum in four month’s time.
There have been movements, obviously, in sterling, since the timing of the referendum became clear, says governor Carney, adding: “Particularly, there has been a sharp increase in risk reversals - buying more downside protection against future falls in sterling around the referendum date as opposed to upside protection. They have spiked to levels consistent with around the height of the Scottish referendum. And they’ve been particularly concentrated against cable...the sterling/dollar options market.”
There is full coverage of the hearing on Graeme’s business live blog.
Updated
Alan Johnson's EU manufacturing speech - Summary
Alan Johnson, the former cabinet minister and chair of Labour In For Britain, has delivered a speech at the Airbus factory in Bristol. Here are the main points.
- Johnson claimed that two thirds of manufacturing jobs were dependent on demand from Europe.
We are a trading and exporting nation and this great European market buys half of Britain’s exports.Eight out of ten of our top export markets are in the EU.
That’s why our manufacturing sector needs Britain to be playing a leading role in the European Union.
Just yesterday the Engineering Employers federation announced that 82 per cent of their members see no sense in the UK cutting itself off from its major market ...
Two thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe.
That’s two thirds of our manufacturing base reliant on that single market access and Britain’s membership of the EU.
That’s over one and half million manufacturing jobs here in Britain. If we’re serious about gradually re-focusing our economy more towards making things, upon which there is cross party consensus we need to remain in Europe. Turning specifically to apprentices in the manufacturing sector, and I’m pleased to see some of you here today, around 50,000 apprentices depend on trade linked to our EU membership.
- He said that workers could lose rights if Britain left the EU.
When Labour took office in 1997, we opted into something called the Social Chapter, which gave working people decent basic minimum standards, like rights to four weeks paid leave, rights for part-time workers to get the same hourly rate as full-time agency workers to be treated fairly, paid maternity and paternity leave, anti-discrimination laws, and protections when companies change ownership.
There are those who want Britain to leave Europe because they want to destroy those rights. They deride them as “red tape”. They have the fundamentally unpatriotic ambition of turning Britain into an off shore, anything goes, race to the bottom kind of country where workers have few rights and little protection.
- He said that Labour had today registered with the Electoral Commission to take part in the referendum.
Alan Johnson MP at Airbus on why it's important to be IN Europe for manufacturing in the UK #LabourInForBritain pic.twitter.com/bCJBj1NAHh
— Peter Hughes (@PeteHughesUnite) February 23, 2016
Hague says ministers who engage in personal attacks should be sacked
In his Telegraph article William Hague offers the Conservatives a five-point plan for minimising the long-term damage to the party caused by the EU referendum.
His proposals include planning a post-referendum bonding session for the party, and sacking ministers who engage in personal feuding. This second idea is surely good advice, although a strict interpretation of it could lead to David Cameron having to sack himself because his attack on Boris Johnson yesterday seemed to go beyond the bounds of policy disagreement. Here is the Daily Mail’s front page.
Tuesday's Daily Mail front page:
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) February 22, 2016
Now Cameron turns nasty#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/wh4q9jqc9o
It is also interesting to see Hague using the argument that, although the Conservative party is divided, at least that makes them representative of the country on this issue. That is exactly what Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman said about Labour at the time of the vote on extending bombing against Islamic State to Syria.
Here is Hague’s five-point plan in full.
First, [Conservatives] should campaign in their spare time and keep on governing every day as the taxpayer who pays them expects them to do. The flow of policy and announcements on other subjects should not stop. Around the globe, people now acknowledge that the UK is delivering the best performance of the advanced economies. There’s a big Budget coming up and Conservatives all need to get behind it.
Second, they should praise each other’s achievements, which are often considerable, even when they are opposing each other. I know from experience that this can be difficult when you momentarily want to throttle your colleagues – and since I do judo I really could have throttled them – but the armoury of a successful politician includes iron self-control.
Third, it should be quietly understood that there will continue to be a place in the Cabinet for ministers on both sides of this argument, but not for those who stooped to personal attacks or stoked a feud. So even if the result is to stay in the EU, the talented minister who argued eloquently for leaving should know he or she will have a good job in the Cabinet; the minister who criticised their colleagues should know their future role is being the new special representative to warlords in the Khyber Pass.
Fourth, Conservatives ought to remember, and occasionally point out, that at least their party does represent the national dilemma and debate on EU membership. MPs in other major parties seem to have stopped thinking about Europe. Not a single initiative on this subject has emerged from them in years.
My final point may seem one of detail, but I suggest it bearing in mind that even elected representatives are human. At key moments in the last twenty years, Tory MPs have gone off together for “bonding sessions”. They should do that in July, when they can sit at the bar with tales of the battles they fought against each other, cordially reunited. And they can do so bearing in mind that they represent our governing party, and one to which there is absolutely no alternative.
Angela Eagle, the shadow business secretary, has announced that she is setting up a business and enterprise advisory council. It will be chaired by Anthony Watson, president and chief executive Officer of Uphold, a cloud-based financial services company, and it will meet quarterly to “develop ideas and to help recalibrate Labour’s relationship with the business community”. The names of further members will be announced in due course.
Eagle said:
I am delighted to launch this new business and enterprise advisory council which will assist Labour in reaching out to and building partnerships with the business community as we seek to devise workable and deliverable policies that provide the solutions to the pressing issues impacting business and industry.
The reference to “workable” policies seems to be an implicit reference to the idea that Jeremy Corbyn floated in his speech to the Fabian conference in January to stop firms paying dividends if they don’t pay the living wage. Eagle was not consulted about the proposal and later publicly criticised it a a policy that “does not actually work”.
Several newspaper headlines focus on the Conservative infighting over Europe this morning, and so it is appropriate that William Hague, the former foreign secretary and former party leader, is appealing for unity. In his Telegraph column he says the party is more evenly split on this issue than it was in the 1990s and that, if ministers and MPs handle the referendum campaign badly, the divisions could harm the party for a generation.
There will now be a fierce and hard-fought campaign. Polls will swing wildly and, bizarrely after last year’s debacle at the election, still be taken seriously by commentators and stock markets. Utterly contradictory statements about the economy and our national security will be made by members of the same government.
Yet in four months it will all be over. The British people will be voting. They will do so with their customary common sense and realism as they always do – a view to which I still subscribe despite having sometimes been on the wrong end of that realism. As they go bleary-eyed back to work on 24 June, will leading Conservatives still all be able to work together ...
Politicians can sometimes surprise people with their ability to fall out and do business with each other simultaneously. I have taken part in several party leadership elections where those who promised their votes to all sides were found out because campaign managers shared their notes with each other as soon as the votes were cast. Quite often, candidates for leadership have formed strong working relationships afterwards, as Margaret Thatcher and Willie Whitelaw showed.
But equally, a sustained battle within a party can open wounds that take a generation to heal. Just look at Blair and Brown and the wreckage they left behind. What can Conservatives do to avoid that fate?
Europe will probably dominate the news again today, but there are other stories on the go too. Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In For Britain, gives a speech.
9.45am: Lord Thomas, the lord chief justice, gives evidence to the Commons justice committee.
10am: Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee.
10.30am: CND holds a press conference ahead of its anti-Trident demonstration on Saturday.
Morning: Cameron holds a Q&A with workers about the EU referendum.
2.15pm: Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan Police commissioner, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.
I will be covering the Cameron event in detail but as usual I will also covering other breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
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