RALEIGH, N.C. — More people are getting assaulted with guns in Raleigh this year than in the two previous years, police statistics show.
As of Sept. 22, the total number of crimes involving guns had increased 22%, to 600.
That was up from 491 gun crimes reported by the same date in 2020 and 480 in 2019.
Shooting homicides rose slightly, with 19 as of Sept. 22, compared with 17 in 2020 and 12 in 2019.
But the largest increase occurred in aggravated assaults involving guns, which rose 39% this year to 357 incidents. That was over 100 more than the number reported by the same date in each of the past two years.
The News & Observer spoke to the Raleigh Police Department and gun violence experts to understand these numbers.
What is an aggravated assault?
An aggravated assault is a more severe assault charge under North Carolina state law, often involving serious injuries or a deadly weapon.
The charge can apply in a broad range of situations, said Maj. Rico Boyce of the Raleigh Police Department.
"An aggravated assault can, of course, include someone using a gun to shoot someone," he said. "Aggravated assault also includes if someone uses a gun, discharges that firearm, and say the bullet strikes a building and there's people inside."
The term also applies to when a gun is used in a crime, like a robbery, but never fired, Boyce added.
Of the 357 incidents this year, 75 involved someone being shot, often by someone they knew.
"Our violent crime is not just random people getting injured," Boyce said.
The majority of victims and suspects in aggravated assaults are between 18 and 25 years old, he added.
"It can be as simple as two people have an ongoing dispute, because they just don't like each other," he said.
What is causing the spike?
Cities across the U.S. have seen more gun violence and fatal shootings over the past two years, says Christopher Herrmann, a former New York City Police Department analyst and a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
But in most major cities, the trend began earlier than in Raleigh, with dramatic rises in 2020 and a steadying in 2021, he said in an interview with The N&O.
"Everyone had a horrific 2020," Herrmann said. "The new trend is that leveling off, or decreasing. Trying to get back to those 2019 numbers."
A possible record number of people were shot in Durham in 2020, while gun violence in Raleigh increased only slightly, The N&O reported. A total of 318 people were shot in the Bull City last year, the most since at least 2016, when the department began compiling the data.
The COVID-19 pandemic fueled financial stress, unemployment, housing insecurity and health care concerns that contributed to a rising crime rate, Herrmann said.
"When a pandemic comes along, it puts a lot of people out of work and disrupts life in a whole bunch of ways," said Ronald Wright, a criminal justice scholar and professor at Wake Forest Law School. "It wouldn't be shocking to learn that it also produced a lot of stress and the kinds of things that lead to assaults and homicides."
And the summer of 2020, which saw protests across the nation after the killing of George Floyd, a Black man, by Minneapolis police, further fractured trust between communities and their police departments, Herrmann said.
Raleigh police have not identified any causes of the spike in gun-related crimes that are unique to the city, Boyce said. He credited the department's strong community relationships in helping avoid a major spike last year.
"We don't allow things to fester or get worse," he said. "We get on it very quickly and try to find out who is responsible for doing it, so it doesn't continue to repeat itself."
Neither Herrmann nor Wright could pinpoint why Raleigh appeared to avoid the 2020 spike, or why it was starting to rise now.
Diana Powell, a community advocate in Raleigh and executive director of Justice Served NC, said she was "not surprised" to see gun violence rising in the city.
"The resources are not there to deter from that type of activity," she said.
Powell said the community needs more support to address housing and food insecurity, factors she says have led people to criminal activity "just to put food on their table."
"Everybody is trying to survive," she said. "Everybody is in survival mode right now."
Wright cautioned it can take time to understand trends.
"Something is going on with guns that is going to be hard to tease out right away," he said. "The best research has to depend on years worth of trend data. We'd like to know the answer now, but we're probably not going to know for a few years."
Violent crime as a whole has been declining over the past several decades, Wright added.
Part of the increase in Raleigh this year has been "the effect of people getting out of the house," Boyce said.
The spikes have been most pronounced near late night establishments, like bars, clubs and sweepstakes locations, he said.
Last week, a shooting at a Raleigh bar killed one man and injured another, The N&O reported.
Gun sales rose during pandemic
Herrmann said the number of guns in circulation nationally is higher this year, with sales rising in 2019 and 2020.
In Wake County last year, the Sheriff's Office said it had received a record number of pistol permit applications, as gun sales soared across the Triangle, The N&O reported.
And in Durham, police said last month that firearm thefts had risen 15% since 2019.
Powell doesn't think the issue is the guns themselves, but "who is holding the guns, who has access to these guns."
Even for those who survive a shooting, she said, the impact can be long-lasting.
A community member who was shot several years ago still feels the effects of it, she said.
"He had to go through a lot of physical therapy," Powell said. "Now, when he hears of a gun shooting, it affects him mentally."
How are police responding?
Boyce said officers are working daily to prevent crime.
"We have community officers that are out creating conversations with the community about what's going on," he said. "We encourage our community members to call 911 before things happen, or as things are happening, or to call CrimeStoppers after."
Once an incident does occur, he said detectives will seek out those involved and also work to ensure that retaliation does not take place.
In Durham, Bull City United addresses gun violence as a public health issue, sending teams out into neighborhoods to mediate conflicts and prevent retaliation. City councilors voted earlier this year to expand that program, which is a joint effort between the city and the county's public health department.
Even as the pandemic disrupted ordinary operations, Boyce said Raleigh police have used Zoom, FaceTime and outdoor events to continue educating the public and meeting with local business owners and other members of the community.
"We understand that we cannot be effective if we don't have the community's trust, and if we don't have the community's help in keeping our city safe," he said.
Powell said she would like to see local law enforcement receive more police officers and training, but added that the entire community needs more funding.
"A lot of people are suffering at a higher rate than ever before," she said. "We're still in a pandemic.
