We are running a story about the Gulf states using the incentives of oil and arms deals, free trade agreements and work visas, to compensate Russia and China for any loss of business incurred in the event of stronger sanctions on Iran. The E3+3 foreign ministers are meeting tonight at the UN headquarters to try once more to hammer out a common position before their October 1 encounter with the Iranians. I have had a look at the agreed text of a statement that David Miliband will read out as the chairman. It will emphasise that there is still unity around the dual track approach (carrots and sticks) and that "more steps" will follow if the October 1 meeting does not bring any progress on enrichment. Needless to say, those steps are not spelled out.
On the other hand, reports out of Moscow are now saying Russia does "not rule out" further sanctions, so perhaps Obama's missile defence decision, plus Arab business guarantees are beginning to bring some movement. Whether Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Khamenei respond to any of this is another question.
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Gulf to use its economic muscle to press for sanctions
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