AHMEDABAD: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday and Thursday gave the forecast for the northwestern monsoon for 2022. According to the forecast, Gujarat is likely to get above average rainfall, especially in parts of Saurashtra and south Gujarat.
The long-period average (LPA) of the rainfall is also revised for the overall country. According to the forecast, the average has improved for Saurashtra and Kutch region in the past decade.
‘Southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of LPA),’ mentioned the IMD release. The monsoon season is likely to witness La Nina conditions in equatorial Pacific region. Another update on monsoon is likely in the last week of May.
IMD also revised the ‘normal’ parameter for the seasonal rainfall. According to the release on Thursday, the new normal for southwestern monsoon season is 868.6mm, a decrease from 880.6mm. The overall rainfall (round the year) is also reduced from 1176.9mm to 1160.1mm. The forecast mentioned that Gujarat is most dependent on southwest monsoon with its 96% of the rainfall received during this season.
The change from 1961-2010 to 1971-2020 showed that the rainfall pattern in Saurashtra-Kutch got marginally improved compared to earlier period.
“These models are probabilistic in nature, and should be seen as indicators rather than anything else. According to the forecast, there is higher probability of above normal rainfall in parts of Saurashtra and south Gujarat compared to other regions,” said a senior IMD official.
