A long-awaited constitutional referendum gets under way in Guinea on Sunday, and is set to test whether the country is moving towards democracy or further entrenching military rule.
Four years after a coup upended Guinea’s fragile democracy, the country is heading to the polls.
On Sunday, more than 6.7 million registered voters will have their say on a draft constitution which promises to clear the way for long-awaited elections – but also opens the door for the country’s strongman, General Mamady Doumbouya, to run for president.
For many Guineans, this referendum is about more than constitutional clauses and legal frameworks.
It will be the first nationwide ballot since 2021, when Doumbouya toppled elected president Alpha Condé and installed himself at the helm of the resource-rich but poverty-stricken nation.
Hopes of a return to civilian rule soon faded as the junta banned protests, silenced its critics and suspended opposition parties.
Guinea's junta sets September vote on new constitution after missed deadline
'A dynamic of change'
The draft text, containing 199 articles, carries the title A New Constitution – a Constitution that Reflects Us and Unites Us.
It posits that a High Court of Justice would be set up to try presidents and ministers, plus a Senate to balance the power of the National Assembly, and suggests a mandatory quota of 30 percent women in decision-making posts to boost gender parity.
Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah is keen to present the charter as a vehicle for national renewal. “Guinea aspires to a dynamic of change and unity,” he told reporters, adding that the reforms address decades of civic and political demands.
But there are some provisions that critics say are tilted firmly in Doumbouya’s favour, notably the absence of the transition charter stipulation barring junta leaders from contesting elections.
The main opposition coalition, Forces Vives de Guinée, has denounced this as a direct violation of Article 46 of the Transitional Charter.
In addition, the age and residency rules which state that candidates must be aged between 40 and 80 and living in Guinea effectively bar Condé, now 87 and living in exile in Istanbul, and 73-year-old former prime minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, who is also living abroad, from taking part.
When he first seized power, Doumbouya promised he would not cling to it. However, posters of the general dominate Conakry’s streets, football matches have been organised in his honour, and ministers have fanned out across the country to campaign for a “yes” vote.
Asked directly whether Doumbouya would run for the presidency, Prime Minister Bah replied: “Why not? Any citizen who meets the minimum criteria can stand.”
Avoidance tactic
The referendum comes amid mounting international pressure from Western powers and the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) for a return to civilian rule.
Guinea’s junta failed to meet a transition deadline set for the end of 2024, which had been agreed with Ecowas.
While no new sanctions have been announced since those imposed by Ecowas in 2022 were lifted in 2024, the West African bloc is among the international organisations that have repeatedly raised concerns about Guinea’s failure to meet transition deadlines, and its clampdowns on opposition figures.
According to Franklin Nossiter of the International Crisis Group, the junta's pushing through of a constitutional vote before announcing a timeline for elections "looks like movement, but it’s really a way of avoiding the hard deadline of elections".
He added: “Although when he took power Mamady Doumbouya was very clear that he was not going to hold on to power... it seems pretty clear [a run for office is] the direction where things are going.”
Bah insists presidential and legislative elections will happen before the end of 2025, although no dates have been set.
Guinea opposition groups challenge military rule after missed deadline
A silenced opposition
The opposition is calling for a boycott of the referendum, branding the exercise a power grab in disguise. On Monday, exiled opposition leader Diallo urged Guineans to abstain from voting in what he called a "masquerade".
The opposition's campaign, however, is barely visible. Demonstrations have been banned since 2022, and three of the country’s main opposition parties were suspended in August. Several prominent figures are either behind bars, in exile or have simply disappeared.
Human rights groups say Guinea is living under a blanket of silence, with journalists harassed and media outlets shut down. According to Reporters Without Borders, the banning of broadcasters "has created a media vacuum, silencing dissenting voices in Guinea".
Bah has brushed off such concerns, telling French news agency AFP that some opponents are trying to destabilise the country and that the government is acting in a “fragile context” to maintain “national security” and protect the “major interests of the country”.
Bah added that he did "not deny" the disappearance of opposition figures, but said he hopes those missing are "alive and well".
(with AFP)
