The latest Guardian/ICM poll showing a healthy 12-point lead for the Conservatives does, however, contain some crumbs of comfort for Labour. Its data shows that the party has gained a lead among the unskilled working class for the first time in the campaign.
The 45% to 33% share of the votes for the Conservatives over Labour in Monday’s poll does represent a two-point narrowing of the lead from the 14 points recorded a week ago. But it is nothing like the extent of seen in some other recent polls – and it still implies a Tory majority of 96 on Electoral Calculus prediction model and the loss of 34 seats for Labour.
The demographic breakdown also shows that Labour has a lead over the Conservatives among the unskilled social class DE by 43% to 36%. Labour is also ahead among 25-to 34-year-olds – just – by 43% to 34%. This is the first time in the campaign that these two groups have shown stronger support for Labour than Conservatives.
It should be noted, however, that in the key skilled working class C2 voters the Conservatives retain a lead, although the gap has narrowed to only two points to 40% to 38%.
The unskilled working class and 25- to 34-year-olds join the 18- to 24-year-olds, students and black and minority ethnic voters as the key groups in which Corbyn can expect to find strong support. Unfortunately for Labour, these are the groups with the lowest turnout when it comes to actually voting in the election.
It should also be kept in mind that taken together, these groups of voters total 400 out of ICM’s sample of 1,470. The over-65 subgroup, in which the Tories have a commanding lead of 64% to 20%, nearly matches them alone with 392 out of the sample.
There is a more positive sign for Labour in the marginal seats they are defending. The detailed poll results show that a Tory lead of 20 points in Labour’s marginal seats at the beginning of the campaign has now shrunk to five points, according to ICM. The figures give the Tories 44% and Labour 39% in Labour-held seats with a majority of less than 15% in England and Wales.
But turnout next Thursday will determine the scale of the general election result. A Survation poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain, published on Monday, caused a stir by showing the Tory lead falling to just six points and reporting that 82% of the heavily Labour-backing 18- to 24-year-olds are certain to vote. It is suggested that the sudden surge in young voters motivated by Corbyn’s popular policies, such as the abolition of student fees, lies behind this narrowing in the polls.
But the ICM poll does not support that finding, suggesting their likely turnout figure is closer to 50%.
ICM credits Survation with success at interviewing the most difficult to reach groups, including 18- to 24-year-olds, but warns there is a danger of repeating the poll failings of 2015 if those who are reached are more likely to vote and more likely to vote Labour than others in their age group.
How pollsters address the turnout issue is now central to what the poll says. We at ICM ... [use] a matrix that assumes younger people will be less likely to vote than older, and less affluent people will be less likely to vote than the wealthy. This has been the general pattern of general elections for an age, and whether you believe our poll findings or those of others will depend on whether or not you think Jeremy Corbyn can actually buck that trend,” said Martin Boon of ICM.
