One Nation has surged to its highest-ever support in the latest Guardian Essential Poll, after weeks of furore over Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt and Barnaby Joyce’s defection.
Hanson’s party recorded a 17% primary vote, half that of Labor’s primary at 34%, with the Coalition’s primary vote at 26%.
But voters are split on whether Joyce’s defection to One Nation will make them more or less likely to vote for the minor party.
The Guardian Essential poll of 978 voters last week also found that a majority of respondents said they felt pessimistic about the cost of living and almost three-quarters said they expected groceries and energy bills to go up in the new year.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rating took a small hit from last month, dropping from 47% to 43%, while voter disapproval increased by one point to 45%. Meanwhile, Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s approval increased marginally from 31% to 34% and disapproval dropped one point to 43%.
One Nation’s strongest demographic is voters aged 55 and over, recording a vote of 21%, followed by 35-to-54-year-olds (19%), while 10% of 18-to-34-year-olds said they would vote for the party.
Joyce, who quit the Nationals party last month, announced alongside Hanson he would join One Nation on Monday during a visit to his electorate of New England.
It followed weeks of speculation as well as a highly publicised steak dinner in Parliament House, where the meat was controversially cooked on a sandwich press.
The poll, which preceded the defection, asked respondents whether they would be more or less likely to vote for One Nation if Joyce became its leader. Thirty-one per cent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the minor party, while 42% said they would be less likely to.
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Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, said the polling showed Joyce has “always been a zero-sum game”.
“Ever since entering parliament he has polarised opinion, [as] this shows,” Lewis said.
“Whether correlation or causation, there’s been a bump in the One Nation vote around the chatter of Barnaby coming on board.”
Voters were also split over Hanson’s controversial stunt of wearing a burqa into the Senate chamber – a repeat of the same stunt from 2017.
Forty-two per cent of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for One Nation following the stunt, while 35% said they would be more likely to.
Ahead of the Christmas and new year period, the poll also found a majority of respondents felt pessimistic about affordable housing and the cost of living.
On Tuesday, after the poll was conducted, the Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 3.6% while flagging the central bank could increase interest rates in 2026. On Monday, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, announced the government would no longer extend the household energy rebate.
Sixty per cent of respondents told Essential they were feeling pessimistic that Australia will “be able to deal” with the cost of living, while 58% said they were pessimistic about affordable housing. In both categories, 19% said they were feeling optimistic.
That pessimism followed the expectation of almost three-quarters of respondents that grocery prices (74%), energy prices (73%) and housing prices including rent and mortgages (73%) will rise in 2026.
As debate over migration has also dominated politics in recent weeks, 50% said they felt pessimistic about the issue. The poll also found 61% of respondents said they believe “the world is becoming more divided”, while just 9% said they believe it is becoming more united.
