20 for 2020 key offseason topics: No. 10 The top Group of Five teams that should be in the New Year’s Six bowl chase.
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Okay, so we whiffed in last year’s preseason 5 Teams In the New Year’s Six bowl chase piece – didn’t get Memphis, and didn’t have Appalachian State on the list – but that’s a good thing. It’s more fun when it’s not an automatic call.
Houston, Boise State, Western Michigan, UCF twice, and then Memphis. Those are your Group of Five champions who got the automatic bids to the available New Year’s Six game in the College Football Playoff era.
It’s not the CFP, but it’s still a high honor.
All five teams represented themselves well, with the Group of Fivers going 3-3 since the bowl slot was created.
This year, the highest-ranked conference champion from the American Athletic, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt will automatically get one spot in either the College Football Playoff, GoodYear Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl or Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
To be the team that gets the job done, unless things go totally wacky, 1) it has to go unbeaten or finish with one loss, 2) it will need at least one signature win, and 3) as part of the requirement, it has to win its Group of Five championship.
Which six teams this season have the best shot at getting into the spotlight game?
6. San Diego State Aztecs
Brady Hoke is inheriting a nice team to play around with.
The Aztecs might not have the defense of the last several seasons, but the offense should be stronger, Georgia Tech’s Lucas Johnson is transferring in to battle for the quarterback job, and the offensive front should be among the best in the Mountain West.
Last year’s team had a few whiffs along the way when the offense didn’t work, but all three losses came by six points or fewer.
Going to Toledo won’t be easy, and a run of four road games in six will be tough, but the one Power Five game is at home against UCLA, and there’s no Boise State to deal with in the regular season.
The road games at Nevada, Utah State, Wyoming, BYU and Fresno State might be too much to go unbeaten, but the team should be in the hunt throughout the year.
– San Diego State Schedule Analysis
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Chase, No. 5
5. Memphis Tigers
They’re going to be right in the thick of things again under new head coach Ryan Silverfield, with QB Brady White leading what should be another high-powered offense.
Seven starters are expected back on defense. the O has a ton of playmakers, and the machine shouldn’t stop.
The problem is a schedule with just enough landmines to keep the Tigers from going 12-1 again in the regular season/AAC Championship again.
Going to Purdue isn’t easy, and Arkansas State and Houston aren’t going to be pushovers. Even if Memphis gets by those three without a problem, it still has to go to SMU, face UCF from the East, and go to Cincinnati, Navy and Tulane over the back half of the season.
The team should be good enough to win most of those, but all of them …
It’ll be a challenge, but the talent is there.
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Chase, No. 4
4. Appalachian State Mountaineers
They were a Thursday night loss to Georgia Southern away from getting the New Year’s Six bid.
They beat North Carolina and South Carolina on the road, and they rolled to a 12-1 regular season with a dominant campaign and a Sun Belt championship.
This year’s team should be every bit as strong under new head coach Shawn Clark. Eight starters are expected back on offense, and five are back on what should be another great defense.
This year’s date against Georgia Southern is on the road, but the Arkansas State and Louisiana showdowns are at home. The biggest keys, though, are early.
Beat Wake Forest on the road and the college football world will take notice. That would be nice, but beat Wisconsin in Madison, and then it’s Game On.
The program has the attitude and the ability to pull it off.
– Appalachian State Schedule Analysis
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Chase, No. 3
3. Cincinnati Bearcats
This is going to be one of the nation’s hottest teams throughout the offseason preview world.
Six starters are expected back on offense, with QBs Desmond Ridder and Ben Bryant leading the way, and with Alabama RB Jerome Ford transferring in, but it’s the defensive side that has the most pop with just about everyone back.
Best of all, head coach Luke Fickell is still around and not up in East Lansing getting ready for Michigan State’s season.
There shouldn’t be too many problems early on, but the Bearcats have to make a statement at Nebraska in late September.
That’s the game. Win that, and UC has the inside track for the New Year’s Six spot.
The issue is the second half of the schedule with four road games in the final seven, including trips to SMU, UCF and Temple, to go along with home dates against Memphis and Houston.
But if it’s not the Bearcats …
– Cincinnati Schedule Analysis
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Chase, No. 2
2. UCF Knights
Sort of lost in how UCF was finally knocked off its lofty perch last year was what it took for that to happen.
There were three losses – and one was at Tulsa – but all three defeats were by a combined seven points. This year’s version might have a few depth issues here and there – Tennessee OT transfer Marcus Tatum needs to work out and be part of the rotation – but the team is loaded enough to make it three New Year’s Six trips in four years.
11 of the top 12 tacklers are expected back, the secondary should be special, and there’s enough in place to plan on a big jump from last year’s rocky season.
Now beat North Carolina to kick things off.
The Knights also have a trip to Georgia Tech to get by, but start out hot, and the buzz will be back.
However, they have to go to Memphis and Houston – this should be a far better Cougar team – and have a finishing kick of Temple, Cincinnati and at USF. Get through all of that, and there’s a likely rematch against Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship to deal with.
The team should be good enough to handle it.
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Chase, No. 1
1. Boise State Broncos
They were No. 1 on this list last year, but a midseason loss to BYU was a killer.
It wasn’t really fair – the Broncos were blasted at quarterback and only lost 28-25 on the road to the Cougars – but it was enough to keep them out of the New Year’s Six.
A 38-7 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Washington didn’t exactly provide any after-the-fact juice to the Memphis vs. Boise State debate for the spot.
There are some key losses on the offensive line, and not having do-it-all defensive star Curtis Weaver hurts, but QB Hank Bachmeier is back along with just enough overall offensive talent to be even better.
The defensive front needs reworking, but the back seven is going to be a killer. Will it all come together right away?
The Broncos have a tough opener against Georgia Southern and its option offense, but it’s a good tune-up for what’s coming with a trip to Air Force to follow. And then comes the big moment.
Beat Florida State for a second year in a row, follow it up with a road win over Marshall – and everything else should fall into place from there.
Even with one loss, get hot, win another Mountain West championship, and this time around, the Broncos should get the nod.
