The number of First Nations people in jail in NSW is higher than ever before, while those without convictions are soon expected to make up half of the prison population.
Though the number of people imprisoned has fallen since 2019, fresh data from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research has found the number of Indigenous Australians in custody has increased by 18.1 per cent.
With 4452 Aboriginal adults in jail as of December, First Nations people represent more than a third of the NSW prison population - the highest number and proportion on record - despite making up three per cent of the general population.
This means the incarceration rate for Indigenous Australians is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous people, with one in 25 Aboriginal men in NSW having lived in prison.
"The Aboriginal figures are shocking," NSW BOCSAR executive director Jackie Fitzgerald told AAP.
Police have stepped up efforts to crack down on domestic violence, but because its prevalence in the community have not decreased, greater law enforcement efforts have had an outsized impact on Indigenous incarceration, she said.
The number of people imprisoned on remand, which means they have been charged but not convicted and are often awaiting trial, has reached the highest proportion ever recorded at 46 per cent of the adult prison population.
NSW's remand population has grown by 20 per cent since December 2023 due in part to the aforementioned police efforts to step up domestic violence enforcement and changes to bail outcomes.
More people are coming before the courts, as legal action against domestic violence has grown by 50 per cent since 2019.
Meanwhile, those facing domestic violence charges are less likely to receive bail, with bail refusal rates rising from 17.5 per cent to 19.4 per cent between 2023 and 2025.
It is possible this has been influenced by high-profile stories of domestic violence offenders on bail that have gone on to murder current or former partners.
While Ms Fitzgerald acknowledged remand could help incapacitate those with serious charges, bail refusal rates have increased across the spectrum of offences.
If this trend continues, people on remand will account for half of the prison population in the next two years.
"It's worth a conversation about whether the community is comfortable with incarcerating so many people who haven't been through that court process," Ms Fitzgerald said.
"We do also know that many of those people, even if convicted, won't receive a custodial penalty."
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