A reversal of the greyhound racing ban in New South Wales is looking increasingly likely and the office of the premier, Mike Baird, is refusing to contradict reports he is preparing to back down on the decision.
The ban, passed by the NSW parliament in August, is to come into effect in July. The deputy premier, Troy Grant, has borne the brunt of the internal Coalition backlash and is expected to face a leadership challenge at a Nationals party room meeting on Monday.
Baird’s office would not deny the story, published in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, instead saying the premier was on leave until Monday and “the ban remained in place”.
An NSW Liberal party source said the premier was wavering and a reversal of the ban seemed likely by the end of the month, and another said Baird had let the issue fester for too long and while a reversal was expected, the self-inflicted damage to the government had already been done.
There was speculation Baird’s backdown could come before the delivery of a report on how to manage the shut-down, in an attempt to save Grant’s leadership.
The report by John Keniry, coordinator general of the Greyhound Transition Taskforce, is expected in mid-October, and will deliver a transition package including animal welfare and owner compensation plans.
Grant would not comment on the expected backflip or his leadership of the Nationals, saying only that he was looking forward to Keniry’s report.
Last month, Grant was forced to deny reports he had told colleagues he would step down if the party lost the Orange byelection in November, amid fears regional anger over the racing ban would contribute to a huge swing against it.
A 2014 report from industry consultants IER found that about 1,600 people were involved in the greyhound racing industry, which supported about 2,800 full-time equivalent positions.
Of the 34 greyhound racing tracks in NSW, 21 are in regional areas. The August vote created a damaging split in the National party, with three members crossing the floor to vote against it.
Chris Gulaptis, Nationals MP for Clarence, said he had not backed off his support for the greyhound racing industry but was united behind the current leadership.
“I think the Keniry report provides an ideal opportunity to either reverse the ban or certainly to soften the impact the ban will have on the industry, and the small towns affected,” he told Guardian Australia.
Gulaptis said he did not believe there would be a spill on Monday.
“For me this is not about the leadership. This is simply about a bad decision. As far as I’m concerned we have got a very good leadership in this state and the fact the state leads the nation from being a basket case to a powerhouse is testament to the fact we’ve got good leadership,” he said.
“We can’t change leaders like we change underpants … The public has lost complete confidence in that.”
Friday’s report sparked strong reaction from both sides of the argument - industry allies were supporting a backflip while animal rights activists were urging the premier to stay resolved.
The ban was sparked by a report from the special commission of inquiry into the state’s greyhound racing industry, which found widespread illegal activity, including live baiting, as well as high rates of dog slaughter – or “wastage” – and “catastrophic” injuries.
The report, by the commissioner Michael McHugh, is facing legal challenges in the supreme and federal courts, brought by the greyhound racing industry.
The chief executive of the NSW Greyhound Breeders, Owners and Trainers’ Association, Brenton Scott, was unaware of any changes in the Baird government’s position, but said there was growing public sentiment that its reaction to the McHugh report was “proportionally well out of line”.
Scott said the industry was willing to engage with the government and confront the issues but “the go forward needs to be a good faith agreement between the industry and the government”.
“That means something that was unfair has to be taken off the table. The ban has to be reversed.”
The chief investigator for Animals Australia, Lyn White, said the prospect of an overturn “reeks of political opportunism” and would be a “pyrrhic victory” for the politicians seeking it.
“For short term political gain, they are betting their political futures on a leopard changing its spots,” White told Guardian Australia.
She said the ban was the only appropriate course of action following the McHugh report, and accused anti-ban politicians of defending an industry with “numerous participants” who were willing to engage in criminal activities.
“To suggest that this will change whilst prize purses remain on offer is ludicrous,” White said.
